Looks like just under 70 boats have signed up for the Sloops always popular Race to the Straits Race. Unfortunately, it also looks like someone forgot to get the wind on the same page. As you can see from the surface analysis chart today and the satellite pic, the front will move through today followed by a strong, post-frontal onshore flow down the Straits. The wind offshore will remain relatively light, 10-12 knots from the NW, which will mean that there won’t be much flow through the Chehalis Gap. This means that as the day goes on, the Central Sound will be in the light air lee of the Olympics.
The course this year is interesting as you won’t be going to Port Townsend. Instead on Saturday you’ll round Possession Point Buoy and return to Shilshole. Sunday start at Shilshole round Blake Island to starboard and return to Shilshole.
April 30 500 MB 
April 30 Surface Analysis 
May 1 Surface Forecast 
May 2 500 MB 
May 2 Surface Forecast 
May 3 Surface Forecast 
May 4 500 MB 
May 4 Surface Forecast
Tidal currents will an issue especially on Saturday. Listed below is the current at Foulweather Bluff which approximates Possession Pt. Remember also the ebb flows south out of Possession Sound and that ebb carries south along the Edmonds shore almost all the way to Edmonds.
Date Time (LST/LDT) Event Speed (knots)
2021-05-01 06:06 AM flood 1.20
2021-05-01 08:18 AM slack –
2021-05-01 12:12 PM ebb -2.74
2021-05-01 03:30 PM slack –
2021-05-01 06:42 PM flood 2.66
Tidal Current Sunday at West Point
Date Time (LST/LDT) Event Speed (knots)
2021-05-02 06:18 flood 0.39
2021-05-02 09:00 slack –
2021-05-02 10:42 ebb -0.34
2021-05-02 12:30 slack –
2021-05-02 19:06 flood 0.93
As is typical following frontal passage, the best time for breeze will be immediately after the front passes. The more time that passes, the more the pressure gradient will ease as will the breeze except where the breeze in the Straits is topographically compressed from Sheringham Point to the Eastern end of the Straits. By late in the day, each day, the breeze will slowly fill down Admiralty Inlet. Between those times it will be light.
Saturday, the boats that start early will have an advantage because there will still be some southerly and there will be a nice ebb to get to Edmonds then as mentioned above you’ll have to fight the ebb coming out of Possession Sound. Remember also that the breeze typically goes light the closer you get to Possession Point. The current is also flowing from east to west at the buoy so you will want to watch your set as you approach the mark. No need to swap paint with the buoy. The return trip to Shilshole will be light and shifty with some northerly late in the afternoon.
Sunday will simply be light air in the central Sound and if it’s light in the central Sound it will be dead behind Blake Island. The good news is that the models are not in total agreement about will happen however your best bet will be to log the baro pressures around the Pac NW from your VHF when you leave the boat on Saturday and then check again when you get to the boat Sunday morning.
Another weak frontal system will pass through the area late Monday and into Tuesday with the rest of the week remaining cloudy with average temps. See the 3 May surface forecast chart.
Enjoy the weekend!
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)