One of those weeks where we love the Pacific NW. We had a record high temp yesterday and it will remain warm and sunny this weekend. The rest of the country is not so nice with more snow in Colorado, a hellacious windstorm off of Louisiana that capsized a large oil platform boat and took lives, a developing storm system off the NE US that will bring rain and strong winds to coastal New England and more snow to their interior. Then late Sunday and into early next week we will see yet another blast of cold air come down from Canada and into the upper Mid-West. All the while and into next week we will have to deal with more sunny skies and temps in the upper 60’s and low 70’s, DARN!
April 16 500MB 
April 16 Surface Analysis 
April 17 Surface Forecast 
April 18 500MB 
April 18 Surface Forecast 
April 19 Surface Forecast 
April 20 500 MB 
April 20 Surface Forecast
Today’s surface analysis chart shows the reason for these conditions with two weak high-pressure systems (1022MB off of SoCal and 1026Mb off of Haida Gwai) offshore and a persistent 1031MB high in southern BC. The way these are oriented will continue to bring an offshore flow to the area which combined with some downslope compressional heating will help keep the Salish Sea warmer than normal. The pressure gradient has eased considerably from mid-week and will continue to do so over the weekend bringing lighter breeze to our waters.
As far as sailboat racing goes, it is going to be light and shifty no matter where you’ll be sailing with the best chance of wind coming in the mid to late afternoon both days in the Central Sound in the form of an 8-12 knot northerly.
The other charts of interest today are the 48-96hr surface forecast charts and the 500MB charts. The 48hr chart shows a weak(987MB) but round and well-formed low-pressure system with an attached frontal system off of the Oregon Coast drifting to the north however the front will start slightly impacting our weather by Tuesday. The high over BC will strengthen to 1045MB and that will keep the low-pressure systems offshore and weaken the fronts as they approach the coast. The high-pressure system offshore is still not very strong and it will elongate as it gets pushed by the next low-pressure system coming in from the mid-Pacific.
The 500MB charts show that finally, the jet stream is shifting to the north as the flow becomes more meridional. This will keep the temps near normal and at least on this side of the mountains, I think we’ve seen the last of freezing temps. I know I’m moving the plants that have been indoors all winter back out to the deck this afternoon.
The 96hr 500MB chart shows the formation of an upper-level cut-off low-pressure system off the north end of Vancouver Island. While it won’t be a huge weather maker it may bring rain to our area by late next weekend and into the next week.
It’s always interesting to watch the weather transition as it occurs, so if you’re on the water don’t be lulled into a sense of complacency. Also remember that, as at least one of the Hoehne boys found out, the water may look very inviting but it is still very cold!
Have a great weekend!
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)