Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 9, 10, 11, and 12 April. Sloop Tavern Blakely Rock Benefit Race.

This will certainly be a very interesting race as the models are nowhere in agreement about what will happen when. Once again the race will have an amazing turnout with over 100 boats currently registered and it’s all for a good cause, The Center for Wooden Boats. They even have a boat in the race, the beautifully restored Pirate (Thank you, Scott Rohrer.)

Today’s surface analysis chart, Sat Pic, and Langely Doppler all agree that we have a front headed our way which will pass over our area late this afternoon. Behind this front, a strong onshore flow will develop with gale warnings posted for the Central and Eastern Strait of JdF and strong northerlies along the coast. This will bring breeze in through the Chehalis Gap and up the Sound. The strong onshore flow and the weaker flow through the Gap have to meet somewhere and that will be the challenge for tomorrow. Eventually, the stronger flow down the Straits will push down the Sound and the timing of that is uncertain.

The problem for the race committee may be that at 1100hrs the breeze will still be light and from the south which would dictate a course that goes to Blakely Rock first. The breeze will then start to ease and may go dead for a short while right in the middle of the starting sequence before it finally fills in from the NW. Now we have a downwind start, which will be exciting especially since we should get to see the RP-55 Zvi (how do you pronounce that?)  in her racing debut come flying through the fleet. Overall, the downwind start would be much preferred over a start in a weak northerly with a flood tide and this huge fleet all bunched up, trying to get around Meadow Point. We’ve seen that movie before and it ain’t pretty as there is generally more breeze on the outside so boats will do their approach on port tack and try to find a hole in a line of starboard tackers trying to get around the mark with what breeze there is all chopped up. There will be more wind further aloft so the tall rigs will benefit in each class.

Once we get started down the Sound in the northerly, you’ll simply sail your polars to the Rock and then get on the wind to head back across to Fourmile Rock being careful to not sail inside of a line from Fourmile to the Lighthouse as it is very shallow in there. Once you pass West Point on starboard you’ll tack when you can lay the entrance to the Ship Canal. If we started in a southerly then it will be a starboard rounding at Meadow Point with a run to the finish so you’ll rig for a port pole if the breeze is east of north otherwise, it’s time for a gybe set to stay in the breeze and the flood tide. You’ll be glad you practiced that.

The current NAM model has the RP-55 around the course in 5hrs and 25 minutes. The current HRRRv4 model has the RP-55 around in 2.25 hrs, the J-111 around in 2.5 hours, the C&C 115 around in 2.65 hrs, and the J-35’s and J-109’s around in 2.75hrs. I’m voting for the HRRR model. It also has the breeze staying out of the SW until mid-afternoon.  The UW MM5 model has the northerly filling down by 1300 hrs.

The weather for next week will be the best and warmest we’ve had this year as the jet stream is finally starting to move north. The elongated high-pressure system offshore will continue to direct storm systems into SE Alaska with some remnants of fronts occasionally dragging over the top of us. Generally, the weather is just going to continue to improve.  

Good luck, have a great race.  

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)