Plenty of wind last weekend, not so much this weekend. That, however, is racing in Puget Sound. Today’s surface analysis chart shows a weak ridge of high pressure over the Salish Sea extending southwesterly from southern BC out to a high-pressure system (1030MB) off of San Francisco. By tomorrow this will have been pushed slightly to the east as the next system approaches the coast. The gradient will somewhat tighten as the next front gets closer.
The satellite picture shows the sunny conditions we have now as well as the next cloud cover coming onshore. While we may have calm conditions on the Sound now, this will give way to a more southerly flow over the racecourse tomorrow, just not a strong flow. The other point of interest is that the NDBC primary processing servers were shut off on 9 March are not yet back up with no ETR as of this afternoon. This means we probably won’t have our graph of conditions (baro, gust, wind speed) at West Point or any other NDBC sites. This will make the Western Washington current conditions chart even more important. https://atmos.washington.edu/cgi-bin/latest.cgi?sfcplots-wwa
March 12 current conditions 
March 12 Surface Analysis 
March 13 Surface Forecast 
March 14 500 MB 
March 14 Surface Forecast 
March 15 Surface Forecast 
March 16 500 MB 
March 16 Surface Forecast
Tidal currents are always important on this race and you’ll want to look at two different stations. West Point for the start-finish line and Foulweather Bluff for an estimate of conditions at Scatchet Head. The actual speed at Scatchet Head will be about .5 to .75 of the values at FWB.
West Point
0800 Slack
1412 Max Flood .72 knots
1636 Slack
1806 Max Ebb .42 knots
Foulweather Bluff
0906 Max Ebb 1.93 knots
1200 Slack
1436 Max Flood 1.75 knots
1730 Slack
Generally speaking, winds will be in the 5-12 knot range with lighter winds on the southern part of the course. At the start, depending on where the start line is set, the wind will probably be from SSE so a starboard tack start should work you just don’t want to hold starboard very long because there will tend to be more wind to the west. As you sail north, it will tend to build on the west side of the Sound first, just watch the TWD and TWS, and don’t get too far to the west of the rhumbline. Since it will be light, you’ll need to keep your head out of the boat and watch what’s going on around you. The other thing to remember is that the flood tide starts first on the west side of the Sound. So after you round the mark you’ll probably want to hold port tack, head to the west, and beat down that shore watching COG and SOG until Jeff Head before heading to the finish. As you get south the breeze will tend to lighten from Kingston south.
As of this afternoon, it looks like the TP-52’s will be around the course in about 5.2 to 5.5 hours, the J-111’s abound in 6 hours, the J-35’s, J-109’s around in 7.5 hours and the J-105’s around in about 7.8 to 8 hours. It will probably be tough for the slower boats to finish within the time limit. While it will be a long day on the water, at least it will be relatively warm.
Don’t forget the sunblock!
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)