All of you folks getting ready for TransPac should look at today’s surface analysis chart. A 1047MB Pacific High centered just slightly to the north and to the west of where we might find it this summer. Nice and round, so some degree of stability. What a great race it would be if the race were to start today and the pattern would hold for about 10 days.
February 26 500 MB 
February 26 Surface Analysis 
February 27 Surface Forecast 
February 28 500 MB 
February 28 Surface Forecast 
March 2 500 MB 
March 1 Surface Forecast 
March 2 Surface Forecast
This configuration also explains we have such a strong onshore flow coming down the Straits today. Currently 40-knots at the Race, and 30 at Smith Island. Don’t worry, by tomorrow it will all change as the high will weaken and drift to the south and slightly to the west. This will allow the gradient to ease over the PacNW bringing light air to the South Sound, just in time for racing tomorrow. By late tomorrow, in advance of another front, a weak southerly flow will develop and then build into Sunday with the possibility of small craft advisories in the central and north Sound, Admiralty Inlet, eastern Strait of JdF, and the San Juan Islands by mid-day Sunday and holding into the evening.
This will mark the start of a series of weak systems making their way into the Salish Sea. Don’t complain, just look at the 28 Feb Surface Forecast Chart and checkout that 962Mb low-pressure system in the western Pacific heading into the Bering Sea. Winter is not giving up quite yet.
It is also worthwhile to check the 500MB charts as they undergo an interesting progression over the next 4 days. The 96hr Chart is particularly interesting as a 538Mb upper-level low forms off of Southern California and directs the jet stream into San Diego. This will allow almost a straight zonal flow right into the Pacific NW. We are already ahead in the rainfall category for this month and this year and while last year was wet, this year is even wetter. It’s time to start checking for moss between your toes.
Remember, next week is the CYC Blakely Rock Race and we’ll have an expanded Bruce’s Briefs on Friday. This will be followed by a Zoom Meeting with the latest wx data at 1800hrs Friday night put on by Corinthian Yacht Club. You can register for this at www.cycseattle.org
While it currently says 6:00am, trust me, it is at 1800hrs.
Stay safe, stay healthy, and have a great weekend!
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)