This weekend looks like a perfect weekend for sailboat racing and with a very nice turnout for the Turkey Bowl. Racers won’t be disappointed, they will certainly be tired but they certainly won’t be disappointed. Just dress warmly and prepare for 15-20 from the south on Saturday and 15-25 on Sunday. Tides won’t be an issue because of the close-quarter racing.
Today’s satellite picture and surface analysis chart shows the front that came through early this morning and is now over Eastern Washington. The cool, unstable air behind the front shows up as those puffy white clouds off of our coast. I put a circle on the Sat Pic, the center of which is over Puget Sound. The clearing in the Straits of JdF shows the post-frontal westerly which right now is clocked at 50-knots at Race Rocks. This is the reason for Gale Warnings in the Straits, San Juans, and Admiralty Inlet. The onshore flow is very westerly so as it flows around the bottom of the Olympics this will keep the breeze southerly in the Central Sound.
November 13 500 mb 
November 13 Surface Analysis 
November 14 Surface Forecast 
November 15 500 mb 
November 15 Surface Forecast 
November 16 Surface Forecast 
November 17 500 mb 
November 17 Surface Forecast
The interesting part for racers will be the transition Saturday afternoon as another frontal system makes its approach to the Salish Sea. This will cause a shift from southerly to south-easterly over the race area. Depending on how close the course is set to Shilshole, there will be a SE shift near the breakwater pretty much all-day.
Sunday will bring a post-frontal SW to the race course and it could be breezy with 15-25-knots. This should last all day with very little if any SE near the breakwater. This will be apparent when you check the wind indicators on the boats in the marina when you arrive Sunday morning.
Next week looks like a repeat of this week with another series of strong low-pressure and attached frontal systems coming through the area. So even if you’re not getting out this weekend it would probably be a good idea to check mooring lines and fenders as they may have stretched or shifted with all this weather. It is after all winter in the Pacific NW!
Stay safe, enjoy the weekend and have a great time out there!
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)