First, congratulations to the group that put together this “Cruise” around Island County. Outstanding and you should have a great weekend.
The start on Saturday going south might be a bit challenging in the morning as the breeze will be light in Rosario Strait until a solid NW will fill in sometime around noon and then build to 15-25 from the NNW. The breeze will be strongest (25-35 NNE) in Bellingham Bay, Rosario Strait, and the Eastern Strait of JdF and that will be from 1800 Saturday until 0900 Sunday. The big boats might benefit from starting later since you can pick your starting time. Also, remember that the flood tide in Rosario will last until around noon with a max flood of 2.35 knots at 0748 hrs. Starting later with less anti-water and more wind could be beneficial.
November 6 500 mb 
November 6 Surface Analysis 
November 7 Surface Forecast 
November 8 500 mb 
November 8 Surface Forecast 
November 10 500 mb 
November 10 Surface Forecast
Sunday will be quite a different story as the offshore flow will ease slightly overnight and sometime after midnight, the wind will begin to back in Boundary Pass and Haro Strait. If there is a starting sequence on Sunday morning there could well be 15-25 knots of NNE. This will ease to 15-20 from the N between 0900-1100 hrs. By around midday, a strong NW flow will come down the Strait of Georgia and fill in over the “cruising area”. Remember to stay in US waters as our neighbors to the north are taking a somewhat dim view of us these days and have impounded boats that have strayed over the border.
The prospect of a close reach from Turn Point to Patos in 15-25 knots of NW breeze has got to have the crews of Sir Isaac and Martha absolutely ecstatic. After Patos, the breeze will clock slightly to the NNE and hold in the 15-20 knot range all the way to Lawrence Point. From Lawrence to the finish the breeze will stay from the NNE but ease to 10-15 knots.
The surface charts show a very interesting feature for this time of the year and that is a very summer-like Pacific High (finally) that is at 1045mb and very round, indicating it should be a fairly stable feature in the North Pacific for at least a couple of days. The low-pressure system that blew through earlier this week is continuing to weaken and slide to the SE towards southern Oregon and northern California coast and maybe bringing a cold front to the fire-ravaged areas of California.
This nice but coolish weather should hold into next week just remember that November is traditionally our wettest month so we’ll enjoy this while we can.
Dress warmly this weekend as wind chills will be in the low 40’s and upper 30’s. Currently, in the eastern Strait of JdF, the outside temp is 48F and with 12-14 knots of NNW, the wind chill is 41F.
Stay safe, use those safety harnesses and tethers, and have a great weekend.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)