Grand Prix would have been a sailmakers benefit regatta had it been held starting today and continuing through the weekend with windchill being at or below freezing. Good times!
As you can see from the surface analysis chart and satellite picture, we have a strong frontal system passing over the area today with the southerly breeze still increasing and barometer continuing to drop as of 1300hrs. The big change will arrive this evening as a very cold Fraser River outflow will develop about mid-evening tonight. This will bring strong northeasterly winds of 30-40 knots with higher gusts to the Salish Sea especially in Whatcom County and the San Juan and Gulf Islands. NE winds of 25-30-knots will extend down Admiralty Inlet and then ease to 20-25-knots in the Central and South Sound through Saturday and into Sunday.
October 23 500 mb 
October 23 surface analysis 
October 24 surface forecast 
October 25 500 mb 
October 25 aurface forecast 
October 26 surface forecast 
October 27 500 mb 
October 27 surface forecast
The main reason for this cold area is an unseasonably strong high-pressure system (1044mb) in central BC. The jet stream will gradually move this in a southeasterly direction bringing very cold air and breeze into the central US.
The surface forecast for Sunday shows an easing of the pressure gradient over the area with lighter air and slightly warmer temperatures coming in early next week. The 500mb charts show a more zonal flow developing with the jet stream remaining well to the north of us.
As a result of a question I got this week, I am also including a current sea surface temperature anomaly chart which shows the blob of warm water off of our coast as well as a dramatic display of the La Niña phenomena currently occurring along the equator and is now starting to affect our weather. Great news for skiers and boarders as we should have a colder and wetter winter with La Niña in play. The bad news will be next spring and summer as those tend to be warmer and drier.
Stay warm, stay healthy, mask-up, and VOTE!
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)