Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 18, 19, 20, and 21 Sept. It’s raining, FINALLY!

It’s not very often we say this but this is truly welcome precip. Plus the anemometer on top of the house has quit oscillating between zero and one from the east. It has been clear up to five from the south, YES! It’s not going to last very long however it will bring a very welcome change to our air quality.

The surface analysis chart for today shows weak high-pressure offshore with a weak trough of low-pressure inland. This will bring onshore flow to the Salish Sea and should get the smoke cleaned out by late Sunday. This is also propitious in that this coming week we will also have the official end of summer as the sun crosses into the southern hemisphere on Tuesday the 22^nd also known as the Autumnal Equinox. It will also be very close to the arrival in the Pacific Northwest of our first vigorous fall frontal system late Tuesday or early Wednesday with more rain and wind. Might be a good time to venture down to the boat to check those mooring lines and fenders. It has been, except for a couple of notable exceptions,  a pretty calm summer.

• 

• 

• 

• 

• 

• 

• 

• 

The 48-hour surface forecast chart shows a weak (1002mb) low-pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska with an attached frontal system that will run into the remains of a stationary occluded front just off of our coast. The system we are watching is the one in the Bering Sea which will intensify as it crosses the Aleutians into the Gulf of Alaska going from 984mb to 980mb. By Tuesday it will be overtaken by a 971mb system with only the remains of a very weak (1015mb) high-pressure system between us that low.

This also coincides with a relatively early transition in the jet stream as it goes from a meridional flow to an almost straight zonal flow. This will have the effect of bringing the jet stream south and along with that, more low-pressure systems coming into our area. The Firefighters are hoping for this. It is also interesting to note today’s 500mb chart as it still shows the remains of that cut-off upper-level low off of northern California/southern Oregon. By the 20^th of Sept, the jet stream has become very zonal and moved south from where it is today. By the 22^nd it is a very straight line across the Pacific.

Today’s satellite pic clearly shows the front bringing rain to us today as well as the remains of that cut-off upper level low as well as a marked decrease in the amount of smoke in the atmosphere. It has been interesting to note how this incredible amount of smoke has disrupted the forecasting models we have traditionally relied upon. It is also the reason why we may have some thunderstorms this afternoon as the onshore flow will continue to bring micro-systems with some vertical instability. The Doppler at Langley Hill shows just such a system with lightning just west of a line from Portland to Kelso. Depending upon the density of the smoke, it tends to slow the vertical instability that causes lightning however we will be watching. There hasn’t been enough rain to diminish the fire danger from a lightning strike which is the last thing our firefighters need. 

Also this week I got a note from my friend John who runs the sailing program at Bremerton Yacht Club which is an all-volunteer program using donated boats which require, as you can imagine, an abundance of work to get into safe operating condition. He is looking for some sails for the Columbia 21’s he uses for the program so if you know of any Columbia 22 or San Juan 21 sails let me know and I’ll get the word over to John. If these sails are on the east side of the Sound I will also pick them up and deliver them to John.

Next Saturday, the 26th is the SSYC Northwest Harvest Benefit Race run under the COVID Protocol so that will be fun, besides it’s for a great cause. Plus powerboats can enter as well so why not get out and put a little load on those engines. The deadline for entry is the 23^rd and entries are limited to 75 vessels.  In this time of COVID, Northwest Harvest as Washington’s own statewide food relief agency is being utilized like never before and requires donations to aid residents as they deal with COVID.  

Needless to say, Sailish.com will have a special race forecast for next weekend.