Ed. note: a previous incarnation of this post was incomplete due to technical difficulties – KH
Don’t let this week’s beautiful weather lull you into complacency. The weather is going to change dramatically and what’s interesting is that it’s not for the usual reasons. This is where having access to good weather charts and up-to-date weather information will keep you out of what could be some nasty, wet, and windy conditions.
May 29 500 mb 
May 29 Surface Analysis 
May 30 Surface Forecast 
May 31 500 mb 
May 31 Surface Forecast 
June 1 Surface Forecast 
June 2 500 mb 
June 2 Surface Forecast
“Normally” we would look to the west on our charts to see what is coming our way. Today’s surface analysis chart and satellite picture do show a 995mb low-pressure off of SE Alaska however there is no attached frontal system. Our weather maker is attached to a cutoff, upper-level low off of southern California which is moving up the coast on the south side of the jet stream.
The other point of interest is that in the usual pre-frontal scenario the breeze tends to be from the SE. This weekend will bring rain with a strong onshore flow (20-30 knts of westerly) at times starting tonight in the central and eastern Strait of JdF and lasting through the weekend before it finally starts to ease late Sunday afternoon and evening. Some of that strong onshore flow will show up as 25-knots of NW late Saturday afternoon in Admiralty Inlet and flow down Sound with 15-20 knots of N-NE.
The other manifestation of this strong onshore flow combined with large ebb tides along the coast is this afternoons Langley Hill Radar image which shows just how rough the water can be off the entrance to Grays Harbor Bar. Combined seas to 10-feet especially at times of maximum ebb. The way to tell if it’s sea state or weather is to loop the Long Range Image on the Radar and you’ll notice everything else that shows up on the radar moves while the blob off of Grays Harbor stays in one place.
Once this system moves off to the north, surface high pressure will rebuild over the offshore and coastal waters. This will bring a return of more normal weather to the Pacific NW. There is however yet another system out in the Pacific which may bring more rain to the area by the middle to end of next week. This is because our Pacific High has not yet developed and the high off of coast is weak and can still be pushed around by these low-pressure systems coming across the Gulf of Alaska.
Enjoy the weekend!
The upper-level low is continuing its track northward and will impact the area beginning on Saturday. Rain will become heaviest in the area on Saturday night as the main wave associated with the trough moves through. A slight chance of thunder lingers in the western slopes of the Cascades. This event is poised to be an eastern Washington event in terms of more rigorous convection. Showers will begin to taper off across the region by Sunday as the system continues north.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)