Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 23, 24, 25, 26 and 27 May, SWIFTSURE! (not)

Yeah, I know, there is no Swiftsure however I just can’t help myself besides, it’s good practice. Tahlequah is also having a pre-Swiftsure zoom meeting this afternoon to discuss the weather and plan our strategy for the Race. For some reason, the meeting time is the same as cocktail hour. I wonder why? 

I digress, anyway, the delivery up yesterday would have been a bit nasty from Pt. Townsend to Victoria with 30-knots of westerly and only slightly less today. The real question is, of course, what will happen tomorrow? As always, the tides will play a big role so let’s check those first.

Tidal Current at Race Passage, 5-23.

0811      Max Ebb                 5.6 knots

1213      Slack

1522      Max Flood            5.2 knots

1856      Slack

2008      Max Ebb                 3.5 knots

5-24

0138      Slack

0257      Max Flood            1.0 knot

0423      Slack

0842      Max Ebb                 5.8 knots

1246      Slack

1555      Max Flood            5.3 knots

1935      Slack

Today’s surface analysis chart shows a weak high-pressure system offshore with a weak low-pressure system just on the other side of the Cascades which is why we have an onshore flow. This will weaken during the day tomorrow as the low dissipates and the pressure gradient expands over the Pacific NW as another frontal system makes its way towards us. This system will move slowly over us on Sunday pushing the offshore high to the south. This will give us cool, unstable air over the area with some weak shower activity.

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For the race, this will mean a classic Swiftsure sucker punch. Plenty of wind and a nice ebb at the start will mean that all fleets will have no problem getting out the Straits in 10-15 knots of WNW. By 1400 hours we’ll have 15-22-knots of northwesterly in the central Straits.  As Crossfire and the long course boats get past Clallam Bay, the breeze will begin to ease. The TP-52s and the big boats on the Flattery Race should start to round the Neah Bay Mark around 1800 hours and be back through the Race by 0200 and finish around 0500 hours. That noise you hear is the door slamming on the rest of their fleet.

For the Long Course boats, it will get very light just past Neah Bay and that will hold until early Sunday morning when a light SE will fill in along the coast, unfortunately, it will be light the rest of the way back to the finish with Crossfire finishing around 1800 hours Sunday evening. On this course and the Cape Flattery Race, the first boat back into the central Strait around Slip Pt to Pillar Pt will be the first boat into what is left of the wind and if they can get back through the Race before the tide starts to ebb strongly around 0530, they will be the winner.

For boats like the J-35 Tahlequah, this will mean rounding Neah Bay at around 2230 hours but not finishing until 1600 hours Sunday afternoon. Just in time for the rain to start.

For the rest of the Salish Sea, you can expect light air with some overcast and some scattered showers. The good news is that the freezing level will come down to about 4500-ft and that will mean more snow for the mountains.

Enjoy your weekend and I hope we can start to get ready for some Wednesday Night Racing in early June!

Ed. Note: Let’s have some post non-race reports. I’m thinking a couple of blown kites, a bit of seasickness and maybe a mutiny or two. If it didn’t really happen, which it won’t, have some fun. Also, keep sending info a Corona Virus style racing. You know, shorthanded and family fun. Stay safe everyone. While I wouldn’t call the docks buzzing today, there certainly was more of a sense of normalcy today. -KH