For those of you who are racing tomorrow, especially at Royal Vic and Bellingham, dress warmly, life jackets and safety harnesses for sure, and if you’re not comfortable with the conditions, don’t go! It looks like the Islands Race will have a nice breeze for the entire day with maybe as much as 20-knots, while Bellingham and Victoria could see 30-40 knots of northeasterly with gusts near 50! WOW! That’s a lot of wind.
Now (1600 hrs) up at the eastern end of the Straits of JdF we have a west-southwesterly breeze of 6 knots, which still gives a wind chill of 30-degrees, and the barometer is still falling. We can see snow up on the hills above Port Angeles and Sequim so the cold air is here but it is rain mixed with snow at sea level.
March 13 500MB 
March 13 Surface Analysis 
March 14 Surface Forecast 
March 15 500MB 
March 15 Surface Forecast 
March 17 Surface Forecast
As you can see from the charts, we have a stationary frontal system that is slowly moving to the east. With the barometer still falling along the coast and here on the south side of the Straits this will keep the strong winds and very cold temperatures up north. It’s already 31 from the NE at Race Rocks so it’s coming.
So why will this northeasterly be so strong? Just look at the high-pressure system in the NE part of BC, it was at an ear-popping 1056mb this morning and it’s only going to weaken very slightly over the weekend. So with a pressure gradient difference of about 50mb, we are looking at some serious wind coming down the Fraser River Valley, blowing across the San Juan Islands and Bellingham, and then across the Straits of JdF. From there the breeze will be topographically forced down Admiralty Inlet and then down the Sound, slowly easing as it encounters landmasses.
This will mean a nice northerly in Colvos Passage that should last the entire day. In other words, a hard beat up the passage, hiking like crazy followed by a quick run back the finish and then into the Tides for well deserved hot-buttered rums, while maintaining that critical 6-foot social distance. You’ll get lots of tacking and gybing practice so that should help keep you warm. 😊
Have a safe sail, and a great time.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)