As we said last week, yes, the rain will end and now we have a pretty good idea as to when that will happen and it’s looking like Sunday is a pretty good bet! In the meanwhile we still have yet another quick hitter coming through tonight and lasting into Saturday. The other impressive feature this weekend will be the seas in the coastal waters which will build to 20-25-feet. This will make the bars at the river mouths pretty exciting places and probably not anywhere you want to be especially on an ebb tide.
Today’s surface analysis chart shows a stalled front over the Pacific NW with a rapidly moving low coming right over us tomorrow. The center of the low will cover almost 700 miles in 24-hours which is good because that means it won’t have the opportunity to drop a bunch of rain on us as it moves rapidly to the east and high pressure builds not only in BC but in the Pacific off of the West Coast. By Sunday we’ll have a very strong (1041MB) high right off of our coast as well as two secondary high-pressure systems in BC that are not wimps. These will keep the next frontal systems at bay until late Tuesday and early Wednesday when another weak cold front will pass over the area.
Feb 7 500MB 
Feb 7 Surface Analysis 
Feb 8 Surface Forecast 
Feb 9 500 MB 
Feb 9 Surface Forecast 
Feb 11 500MB 
Feb 11 Surface Forecast
The other interesting feature of note in the 96-hr, 11 Feb surface chart is that the high has now weakened to 1036mb and is no longer as round as it used to be which means it will be pushed around by the next series of fronts that will be passing over it.
Another interesting feature on the 96-hr forecast chart is that low-pressure system lurking to the east of the Hawaiian Islands and moving towards the north end of that chain. I only point this out because, for the last two years in a row when this has occurred and been associated with an upper-level cutoff low-pressure system, Kauai has been pounded with extremely heavy rainfall resulting in catastrophic flooding in the Hanalei Valley. Take a look at the 500mb charts. The only difference has been that the two previous events occurred in April and this foretold an early move to the north by the jet stream which in turn brought a very early spring to the Pacific Northwest. We’ll see.
For the inland waters of Salish Sea, we can expect a nice onshore, post-frontal northerly breeze for the north and central Sound for Saturday. As this shifts to an offshore flow on Sunday, this will bring light air to our waters but at least it will also bring some sunshine.
Enjoy the weekend and get ready for Toliva Shoal next weekend.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)