It’s been a fairly nice week for November unless you’re a skier….which brings up the real problem and that is a real lack of precipitation around the NW. November is usually the wettest month of the year however as of today we are 3” behind for the month and almost 5” behind for the year and this isn’t going to change much as we approach the end of November.
The surface analysis for today shows the remains of a cold front off the coast and the remnants of a cutoff low-pressure system off the coast of southern California. We also have that group of persistent high-pressure systems just east of the Cascades as well as that 1029 MB high off of San Francisco. This combination has been very effective in weakening and breaking up lows and frontal systems as they approach the coast.
Nov 22 500MB 
Nov 22 Surface Forecast 
Nov 23 Surface Forecast 
Nov 24 Surface Forecast 
Nov 25 Surface Forecast 
Nov 26 500MB 
Nov 26 Surface Forecast
What is really interesting is note the discrepancy between the surface analysis chart for today and the 24 hour surface forecast chart. On the surface analysis chart note the four low-pressure systems and the solid red arrows coming off the low-pressure centers. Those indicate how far the low-pressure centers are expected to move over the next 24 hours. All of which are moving in a generally northerly to northeasterly direction, consistent with the general flow of the jet stream. Next, take a look at the 24 hour surface forecast chart. Where did that 1006MB low off of Haida Gwai come from? Maybe Krekeler should have checked the chart from Folmer. Anyway, I think that the 1006MB low was the 989MB low that simply followed the more east-northeasterly path of the jet stream.
Once again our system of highs will degrade and weaken the fronts as this system approaches the coast giving us little if any precipitation. There will still be enough of a pressure gradient to give us some breezy pre-frontal southeasterly conditions Saturday and into Sunday followed by a post-frontal SW later on Sunday. It never matters what time of the year it is, always check conditions before you leave the dock.
Things will get even more interesting this coming week as that offshore high will strengthen to a very summer-like 1040MB and a very interesting low-pressure system will come ashore in southern Oregon and northern California. Next check the 500MB chart for the 26th of November as the jet stream will develop quite a roller coaster-like bump over the north-central Pacific. This will also create an upper-level cutoff low-pressure system to the north-northwest of Hawaii which should always be watched especially if you’re heading to Kauai as we had two in the last two years that dumped 42” of rain in 24 hours on the north shore and severely flooded Hanalei.
Of concern to boaters in the Pacific Northwest will be that this bump in the jet stream will have the effect of bringing in our lowest temperatures of the year out of central BC. This will mean that most areas will drop well below freezing and that means maybe putting some heat on the boat and opening all the locker doors that access thru-hulls to make sure none of those freeze. Nothing like the perfect excuse to escape the Thanksgiving madness and head down to the boat to make sure everything is in order.
Have a great one!
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)