It may have been a little wet this morning but that is probably over until Monday and Tuesday of next week. That’s the good news, the bad news is that the Foulweather Bluff Race should have been held today. Plenty of wind over the entire course, partial sun, and minimal tides, in other words, a rare perfect day for sailing on the Salish Sea. Tomorrow will be much different.
The reason is easy to see if you compare today’s surface analysis chart with the surface forecast chart for tomorrow. The chart for today shows a convoluted and confusing set of systems right over the Pacific Northwest. We see the 1012MB low-pressure system with the remains of the front that passed over the area this morning bracketed to the north and south by two, weak, high-pressure systems. This low will be broken up by the coastal buffer zone and a weak onshore flow will develop overnight. The onshore flow will result in a very light southerly over the race area by tomorrow morning however by about mid-day the flow will become more of a drainage northerly shifting to a very weak offshore flow as high pressure builds over eastern Washington. This will bring light and variable winds over the race area and most of the Salish sea, accompanied by plenty of sun. Dig out the sunblock, the wind finder, and the 1/2oz chutes.
October 4 500MB 
October 4 Surface Analysis 
October 5 Surface Forecast 
October 6 500MB 
October 6 Surface Forecast 
October 8 500 MB 
October 8 Surface Forecast
As far as tactics for the FWB Race, it will be a matter of drag racing from hole to hole, sailing the shortest possible course, and not getting too far off the rhumbline to the next mark. I wish I had better news for you, however, the race committee has always done a pretty good job of not setting too long a course on these light air days. Regardless, we always have a great time in Edmonds.
Luckily, the tides will remain very minimal over the area for Saturday the reason can be seen in the current chart for Foulweather Bluff.
Also of interest is the 500MB charts which are now showing a distinct lowering of the jet stream and a more seasonal flow pattern which will bring not only more rain into the Pacific Northwest but it will also have the effect of starting to break up the warm water blob off of our coast. As you can see from the sea surface temperature charts, it is already having an impact. Let’s keep our fingers crossed on that.
Have a great weekend!
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)