If there was ever a great time to do the Protection Island Race, tomorrow is probably that day. The tides aren’t horrible and best of all it really looks like there is going to be plenty of wind all the way around the course.
Tidal Current at Jeff Head
0748 .33knts Flood
1042 Slack
1442 .52knts Ebb
1836 Slack
2100 .44knts Flood
Tidal Current Admiralty Inlet
0654 Slack
0936 1.2knts Flood
1218 Slack
1506 1.48knts Ebb
1812 Slack
2148 1.76knts Flood
Just take a peek at today’s Surface Analysis Chart to see the reason for all this optimism. Directly off our coast, we have a 1030+MB high-pressure system that by tomorrow will strengthen to 1034MB and along with that, develop a nice pressure gradient that will produce a strong onshore flow. Especially since that weak low-pressure system directly north of that high today will move rapidly into the interior of BC accentuating the gradient and the onshore flow. This will produce gale warnings in the central and eastern Straits for westerly winds up near 40+knots today. This will ease after midnight to small craft advisories for winds of 15-25 knots through Saturday. This westerly wind will be northwesterly at 15-20 knots in Admiralty Inlet and 10-20 knots in the north and central Sound. By late afternoon and into the early evening, the breeze will begin to ease down to the 10-15 knot range in the north and central Sound. By mid-evening and approaching midnight it will get much lighter.
April 26 500MB 
April 26 Surface Analysis 
April 27 Surface Forecast 
April 28 500MB 
April 28 Surface Forecast 
April 29 Surface Forecast 
April 30 Surface Forecast
With this wind, it should be a fairly straight-forward race to sail. Get a clear air start and then hold starboard tack all the way across the Sound to Jeff Head and then work the west side of the Sound and Admiralty Inlet all the way to Pt. Wilson. As you approach Pt. Wilson make sure everything is really battened down (especially the crew) because the tide rips are going to be nasty all the way from Pt Wilson to Middle Point (aka McCurdy Point). From there to Protection Island just sail the favored tack so that you approach Violet Point on Protection Island on port tack. You do this because there’s plenty of water all the way along the south side of the Island and if you go right up to Violet Point and tack to starboard, when the wind comes over the Island you get nice, starboard tack, lifting puffs all the way to the west end of the Island and you’ll be sailing in much flatter water than being out in the middle. As always, watch the west end of the Island very carefully and once around if you’re a deep draft vessel, don’t reach off too early. Two weeks ago there was a BIG deadhead aground in 11-feet of water at a 1.1-foot tide and sticking up at 48.13173°N and 122.94907°W. There was also not hardly any kelp out there yet. The problem will be that if you set too early in that much breeze you may have to sail off to keep the boat on its’ feet and Dallas Bank extends to the north a long way. Maybe hold the set until you’re at about 48.14159°N and you can sail safely right back towards Point Wilson on the port pole. After Pt. Wilson you’ll need to plan your gybe so you can sail on starboard all the way down Marrowstone Island to get out of the ebb. Don’t go too far into Skunk Bay west of Pt. No Pt because even in breeze it can get light and squirrelly in there. At Pt. No Pt. gybe back to starboard and work down the west side of the Sound if you’re still fighting ebb. Remember also that since the northerly will have blowing for a while, the flood will probably start early and it starts first on the west side of the Sound.
South of Pt. No Pt, and if it’s getting close to sunset, the breeze will begin to ease and clock to the north. That will be the time to gybe to port and work over to east side of the Sound for your approach to the finish.
Have a great race, be safe, and please leave your AIS on so I can at least see how you’re doing out there.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
Bruce – thanks for the keen insight. Any comments on the Cruiser/Racer course that goes to Satchet Head Gong Buoy and back Thanks, Dan?
Here’s Bruce’s response (other folks on the cruiser racer course might have the same question!):
Hi Dan, Great question with not an easy answer. I still think that you will do better if you work up the west side of the Sound and approach the mark on port tack. This is because if the breeze does lighten under Scatchet Head, you can still reach off in time to clear without having to set the kite and gybe back if the ebb has started. The challenge for you will be your arrival time at Scatchet Head. For the Al Hiin, you will probably get to the mark after slack water. Luckily, there won’t be much ebb. However, you should really watch your COG and SOG as you approach the buoy. Watch the folks ahead of you to see if the breeze lightens as they close to mark. After you round, the problem will be which way to go back to the finish. If the ebb has started and the breeze is still out of the NNW, then sail the starboard gybe to get away from the ebb at the mark which is setting almost directly due west. As you sail south, there will tend to be more wind on the west side of the Sound, so work your way over there and down the Sound until you can gybe and come in just above the finish. The ebb will ease the further south you go. You want to plan your gybe so that if you’re approaching the finish near sunset remember that the wind will shift from NNW to NE the closer you get to the finish. Lots of variables so you really have to keep your head out of the boat and watch the folks ahead of you, if there are any.
Thanks Dan, and again, great question. Good luck tomorrow!
Bruce