This is one of our favorite events all year and it is eerily similar to last year with lots of doom and gloom forecasts. The question, as always, is when will these fronts actually impact the race area and that is a very good question.
Today’s surface analysis shows a complex, flattened, series of low-pressure systems ranging from 974MB to 977MB. This front is what we will experience today. The front for tomorrow is attached to a 992MB low directly south of the aforementioned system. The 992MB system is very fast moving and will not weaken until it begins to interact with our coastal buffer zone sometime tomorrow morning. This will put the front over the race area in the late morning to mid-afternoon.
The current Doppler at Langley Hill clearly shows a more intense frontal system headed our way this afternoon and matches up nicely with the satellite picture. We have generally light southeasterly flow over the area now and this will increase as the system approaches starting late this afternoon and into the evening. The barometer is clearly dropping and that is also reflected with the readings from Destruction Island on the coast, where there is 30+knots of wind and the barometer is still dropping so the front is not there yet.
April 5 500MB 
April 5 Surface Analysis 
April 6 Surface Forecast 
April 7 500MB 
April 7 Surface Forecast
The first start is at 1100 hours and there should be about 12-18 knots of pre-frontal southeasterly. The strongest pre-frontal breeze will be in the eastern part of Straits and up into the San Juan Islands With the passage of the front now looking like to be about midday to early afternoon, expect a brief drop in the breeze as it backs to the south-southwest. As the breeze settles into a more southwesterly direction, this is when we should see the strongest breeze of the day. Then as the front moves further away from the Salish Sea the breeze over the center Sound will slowly drop as the gradient eases. This is a reverse start so the battle on the upwind leg will be to keep your air clear. Tides will not be much of a factor.
Tidal Currents at West Point
0712 .4 knots Ebb
1018 Slack
1524 1.06 knots Flood
1812 Slack
Remember that since we will have had some rain, the ebb in the morning will probably last longer, delaying slack water by as much as an hour.
So you will want to get a clear air start and then hold starboard tack to the breakwater and then work your way up under West Point as there will still be some wind-generated surface current against you. At West Point head across the Sound on port tack. Go all the way to the Bainbridge Island shore to again get out of what current there is. There should be a slight knock as you get to Bainbridge so sail well into it before you tack to starboard and work your way up to the Rock.
It’s also possible that if the front is delayed after interacting with the coast that we may have a very east-southeasterly breeze that will allow you to make the mark on one long port tack.
You’ll probably do a port pole set however as you get past all the rocks headed north get set up to gybe and get aimed at West Point. At West Point, the wind may shift slightly to the SSE and become puffy as the wind starts to come out of the Ship Canal. Get set-up to do your drop early and start negotiating with the boats around you for buoy room at Meadow Point. As you sail past the finish line be sure to sight it and figure out which end is favored. Perfect sail handling at this mark will pay big dividends. You’ll need to tack out from the beach fairly quickly so make sure that is all part of your rounding plan. You should tack back to starboard once you can make the beach between the bathhouse and the north end of the breakwater. There will be a knock as you get in close to the beach. Tack when you can lay the favored end. If it’s the buoy end put a little in the bank because the current from the Ship Canal will set you out.
I also had a great question this week once it looked like it might be breezy and we could be in for some heavy weather. The question was “How do you define heavy weather?” The answer is that you define what heavy weather is and that is the point where you and your crew are no longer comfortable sailing in the existing conditions and there exists the possibility of hurting someone or doing damage to the vessel. So for tomorrow, we will all be in life jackets and safety harnesses and if it’s cranking, we may just stay at the dock. Nothing wrong with that!
Be safe and have a great time.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)