Bruce’s Brief for March 8-10 and Scatchet Head Race

While we may have had some rain or snow earlier this week, it looks like we are in for another lovely day on the water this weekend. The problem will be for Scatchet Head racers that there won’t be as much wind as last weekend. As the most recent frontal system has gone past the Pac NW, it has left us with a very weak and wandering ridge of high pressure system (1020MB) that will result in little to no pressure gradient over the area. While there is a weak southerly at West Point this morning, the pressure is rising so it will gradually move around to the east before becoming light and variable. This will persist overnight and then the question becomes when and how much northerly will come down the Sound on Saturday. The answer will be for racers (and the Race Committee) to check the pressure gradient from Bellingham to Seattle and Bellingham to Portland.

As of 1000 hrs PST Friday the gradient looks like this:

Bellingham       1016.8MB

Seattle             1016.9MB

Portland           1016.6MB

Take the difference between the readings of Bellingham to Seattle and multiply times 5 to get approx wind strength over the north Sound. Any differential less than 1MB says it’s going to be very light. Take the difference between Bellingham and Portland and multiply times 10 for the approx wind over the central and south Sound. The wind will flow from areas of higher pressure to areas of lower pressure, so that tells the direction.  This will be the best way to figure out the answer to how much and when. Once again, as this a transitional period, the models are not in agreement. Two models show some semblance of a northerly starting to fill around noon and then building to a more reasonable 10 knots by 1400-1500 hrs.

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Once again tides will not be bad. I use the current at Foulweather Bluff for what will be happening at Scatchet Head. It’s not an exact match but it is certainly close enough.

0948    .67 Ebb

1312    Slack

1600    1.01 Flood

1930    Slack

I also look at Point No Point because of the timing of the flood tide for the simple reason that the flood starts on the west side of the Sound first. So, if because of wind direction, there’s a question about which way to go, head west. There will probably be slightly more wind on that side as well.

Current. At Point No Point

1018    1.38 Ebb

1354    Slack

1554    .49 Flood

1854    Slack

All in all, it should be a nice day on the water, a little cool but not freezing.

Have fun and be safe.  

Ed. Note: Last week after Bruce’s Brief, alert reader Dan Tedrow asked for a list of resources. Check out Bruce’s response by going back to that Brief and scrolling all the way down.