Finally, our favorite series gets going this weekend and as usual, it looks like this could be a good one. The folks that have been sailing all winter ( South Sound Series) or got out last weekend for some practice will benefit as there should be some very nice breeze. For a while this week it looked like that high pressure (1045MB) that was centered over the mid BC interior might slight further to the south. Now it looks like it will stay to the north yet still dump some very cold air down the Fraser River Valley. There will also be some fairly strong breeze (25-35 knots of northeasterly) in northern end of the San Juans late Saturday and into early Sunday morning.
While there won’t be much breeze when you get to Shilshole Saturday morning, eventually the northeasterly out of the Fraser will follow the path of least resistance and wind its down Admiralty Inlet and into Puget Sound. It will start out as a light northerly but become northwesterly and build as the day goes on. How much and when? That is always the question, but right now you could see 20+ for the beat from Blakely Rock back to the finish. The models are not in agreement about when the northwesterly will come down the Sound but it will come.
Tidal Current at West Point
0806 Slack
1100 .53 knts Max Flood
1324 Slack
1512 .26 knts Max Ebb
1742 Slack
So not a lot of tide, the key will be when will the northerly back to the NW. It will also depend upon where they set the start line which direction you go at the start. If the line is well south of Meadow Point and you can take a quick hitch to get in under Meadow Point you can get a slight lift on starboard as well as some tide relief before you hold a long starboard tack up the Sound.
If the line is north of Meadow Point and the wind is to left of due north, just make sure you have a nice lane to sail in and head west. As you get to the west, watch the cog and sog, watch for a knock and tack when you are almost laying the top mark. In the reverse start it’s liable to be a bit crowded at the first mark which will make a port approach just a little dicey. Besides, a starboard approach will be greatly appreciated by the foredeck crew as it will give them more time to get everything set up for a nice bear away set.
On the run to Blakely Rock, the breeze will tend to build on the west side of the Sound first so you’ll probably hold starboard until the breeze starts to lighten as you approach Bainbridge. Gybe out until you can gybe back to starboard for your final approach to the west end of Blakely Rock. On the run also track the true wind speed so you can give the foredeck crew plenty of warning about a different headsail for the all-important last beat to the finish. Regardless, you should have them set the headsail in the starboard groove so you can do a tack change if you need to as you approach Magnolia, Four Mile Rock. Remember, it can get shallow very quickly as you approach that imaginary line between Four Mile Rock and West Point. From the aerials earlier this week it appears there may be some shallower than normal water south of the line from the lighthouse to the West Point Buoy with shoal water extending further north of that line and slightly further out from the Point. Be cautious.
After West Point, if the current is neutral or ebbing hold starboard tack until you can just lay the area north of the south end of the Shilshole Breakwater. You get a slight knock as you get close, just keep track of where the finish line is and don’t over stand the finish.
Please leave your AIS on so I can watch the race. Have a great race, good luck and be safe.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
Thanks Bruce!
You nailed it again Bruce. My models were showing light all day. I am officially exchanging them for your brain. Cheers!
Ed. note. Thanks for the kudos to Bruce. Let’s hope he doesn’t let it get to his head…..
Great weather report. Any recommended resources for studying up?
Ed. note: We’re tracking him down for those resources.
(from Bruce) Hi Dan, Thanks for the note. My newest and now most favorite reference is Modern Marine Weather 3rd edition, by David Burch. I got the book when it first came out, the end of last summer, and I am now in the process of rereading it for the third time. It is an amazing compendium of weather information. I’m not sure where you’re located but David has a shop in Ballard, Starpath School of Navigation, where you can just walk in and buy the book directly from the author, which I think is great.
I am away from my home computer where I keep a couple of other references however I’ll be back around the end of this month. Let me know if this is what you had in mind.
Thanks again Dan.
Bruce Hedrick