It has been getting noticeably cooler this week and last Saturday you could even see a new dusting of snow on the taller peaks in the Olympics as well as up at Whistler. This will present some challenging conditions for sailors this weekend. Today we have a moderate onshore flow as a result of the high-pressure system (1029MB) just offshore. The fact that it is irregularly shaped and less than 1030MB tells us that it will be pushed around by the two fronts to the west of that high. Offshore we’ll have very strong northerlies today, possibly gale force, that will last into the late evening. After that, the gradient that causes this will ease and a northeasterly offshore flow will develop and last into Saturday morning. In the Strait of Georgia, this will last until midday when it will be replaced by a weak northwesterly filling down the Straits which will last into the early evening hours at which time a weak offshore northeasterly will once again develop. With our highly varied topography, which will generate its usual plethora of micro-climates, sailors in both venues will face challenging conditions, not too much wind but plenty of sun so USE THE SUNBLOCK EARLY AND OFTEN!
Of general interest to boaters will be that whopping 967MB low in the central Pacific, luckily with the current configuration of the jet stream this won’t present a problem to boaters on the Salish Sea. This is, however, the time of the year that we can get these systems and as the jet stream changes, they will eventually come into our area. It is, after all, the 56th anniversary of the Columbus Day Storm.
The Pumpkin Bowl Regatta.
This is a very cool event run out of West Vancouver YC which as of last night had over 200 sailors in 190 boats registered for the weekend. Last year, in just two days, they completed 63 races. In order to do this, they have an army of over 100 volunteers with 70 of them being on the water. WOW!
Tidal Currents: Measurements at the First Narrows
13 Oct
0850 Slack
1125 Max Ebb 2.1 knots
1422 Slack
1644 Max Flood 1.5
1857 Slack
14 Oct
0947 Slack
1220 Max Ebb 1.8 knots
1524 Slack
1729 Max Flood .9 knots
While there won’t be this much current in Howe Sound it will be something to watch especially if any of the marks are near the shore.
My point in bringing up the cooler weather and snow in the mountains is to make the point that the gradient will reinforce the usual squamish effect that occurs in Howe Sound and will also show itself in English Bay. In the morning the flow will be from the northeast in both Howe Sound and English Bay. As the sun comes out and the land starts to warm, this flow will ease to less than five knots somewhere between 1000 and noon. The flow will back to the north and then around 1300-1500 hours back sharply to the west. Your key to this will be your masthead wind indicator since the air aloft will be warmer than the surface air and will start warning you the shift is coming. The westerly will be around 4-6 knots and will slowly build to 5-8 knots by the late afternoon. After about 1700 hours the breeze will start to ease and clock back to the northeast as we go into evening cooling.
Sunday doesn’t look quite so good as the morning squamish will die to light and variable conditions however as the land starts to heat, a light west-southwesterly breeze (3-5 knots) will start to fill around noon and as the day goes on this will clock to the west-northwest and remain light.
Regardless, this will be a fun weekend to be on the water.
Sailors in Puget Sound will face similar conditions except that there will definitely be a northwesterly breeze especially on Saturday morning, like maybe 20+ and it will hold until mid-afternoon when it will start to ease very slightly. In the morning along the east side of the Sound, there could still be some of the downslope drainage effects which will create a shift to the north-northeast, however, this will go away as the land heats and draws more of the northwesterly down the Sound.
There will still be wind on Sunday just less of it and it will start out being from the north and then back to the northwest as the land heats. It will start out at around 7-10 knots and pretty much stay at that velocity until mid-afternoon when a solid northwesterly of about 10-14knots should have made its way into the central Sound. It will last until late afternoon when the cooling land mass will start to drop the breeze.
Tides at West Point
This is going to look a bit strange so I’ve included a graph to explain what is going on. Overall, just not a lot of current however you still need to be aware of it.
13 Oct
0836 Slack
1006 Ebb .23 knots
1130 Ebb .20 knots
1254 Ebb .21 knots
1448 Slack
1730 Flood .64 knots
14 Oct
0936 Slack
1312 Ebb .22
1530 Slack
1812 Flood .53
Have a great weekend and enjoy the sun!
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)