Bruce’s Briefs: R2AK drags on but hope is on the (distant) horizon

It is setting up to be a very interesting race, especially after last night where Pt Watercraft(PtW), after having been well in the lead, had to get some sleep. That allowed Sail Like a Girl (FFSLAG), Ptarmigan (Pmg), and Wild Card (WC) to all slip by leaving PtW about 5 miles behind at dawn. That didn’t last long as PtW lit the afterburners and is now slowly but inexorably grinding them all down and as of 1200 is back into third place and rapidly closing in on second.

Then there’s the weather. From the surface chart, you can see it’s a bit of a complex situation that is preventing any kind of typical summer weather from setting up. The ridge of high-pressure offshore is continuing to weaken as low-pressure systems continue to push into it. Being elongated from north to south doesn’t help it and with another low with an attached frontal system approaching it will continue to weaken and eventually it will be absorbed by a strengthening high-pressure system on the backside of that occluded front. Then there are the two weakly organized low-pressure systems just two the northeast of the race course. That’s the good news and the bad news. This will provide SE breeze for most of the racers over a pretty large area today. This may be enough for the current crop of leaders to get through the Narrows and into Johnstone Strait. The problem will be that as these lows dissipate, a new ridge will try to form over the western end of Johnstone Straits. This will bring light westerlies down Johnstone by mid to late afternoon. By early evening this could be 8-knots near Hardwicke Island. Unfortunately, by around midnight, this ridge will start to break down and racers will be in for another night of very light and shifty breeze.

It looks like the first six boats will make it through this tidal gate with a big slamming noise occurring around 1630 hours this afternoon. If FFSLAG can get around Chatham Pt and into Johnstone they have the potential to really put some distance on the rest of this group. Lagopus, Pmg, and Blue Flash are at risk of becoming stranded on the tidal treadmill if they don’t get past the Narrows.

The long-term outlook doesn’t start looking much better until the 23^rd or 24^th of June when another low-pressure system will start pushing into the area between the north end of Vancouver Island and the Queen Charlotte Islands. That will bring a pre-frontal SE breeze over the area and give racers a welcome tailwind.

Thanks Bruce. I’ll be following this up with a little post of my own. Go Wild Card! –KH

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)