A typical springtime weather week in the Pacific NW with a little bit of everything: sun, rain, hail, lightning and now 80° for Mom’s Day on Sunday. We are doing our best to get you around the course fast for an early finish on Saturday so you can enjoy Sunday. As you can see from the charts, we have a weak, elongated high-pressure system off the coast which will set up a weak onshore flow down the Straits for today and into tomorrow. While it may be relatively weak, this will still result in 20-25 knots of westerly in the central and eastern part of the Straits. As this high drifts slightly offshore late Saturday and into Sunday this will create a more northerly flow over the area which will cause a NNE breeze over the central Sound and San Juan Islands. This should be great news for the Vashon Island Race folks who should have wind around the course…..except for the south end of Vashon. What else is new?
The tides will also be very reasonable, who arranged that?
Tidal Current West Point, 12 May.
0718 Slack
1206 Flood .75 knts
1524 Slack
1706 Ebb .41 knts
2006 Slack
It may take a while for the breeze to work it’s way down the Sound tomorrow but racers should still have about 10-12 knots of NNW for their start and the rest of the course down to Pt. Robinson. From Pt. Robinson to the bottom end of the Island it will be a matter of sailing the shortest possible course without getting too close to the Island and running out of the wind.
It should be very interesting beating back up Colvos depending on how sunny it has been and if the high has started to shift offshore enough to bring a NNE component to the breeze. Since the land on Vashon hasn’t really had enough sun to heat it up, I don’t think this will be an issue but you should be aware of it. Obviously, you’ll want to stay in the max current going up Colvos and the temptation is to maximize your tacks. What you want to watch for is hitting the warm air on the Island side of Colvos. If, as you get 1/3 to ½ way up the Passage, you start hitting warm puffs that will be knocks on port, you want to tack immediately as this is an indication that the breeze is about to drop. It may be too early this year for this phenomenon, just be aware of it.
As you get to the top end of Colvos, the ebb will be stronger on the Blake Island shore, again, just don’t get too close to Blake Island. Set your tacks up to approach the Bainbridge shore on starboard just west of Restoration. This way you can take advantage of the ebb coming out of Rich Passage. From there, stay slightly to the east of the ebb (which flows to the south) that comes out of Winslow. When you can lay Fourmile Rock on port, go for it. If the breeze has gone around to the NNE your main traveler person will be working very hard as you sail on starboard up to West Point.
Swiftsure Briefing
I also had some requests to open up the crystal ball and see what it looks like for Swiftsure. My official forecast is for maximum fun in Victoria. I’ll be giving the weather briefing at the Skippers Meeting on Friday afternoon, the 25th so if you’re there, say hello. The tides will clearly be a challenge as the big flood of the day in Race Passage starts just after the start of the Race. I’ve attached the Surface forecast chart for the 26th for May, just remember that this is 360-hours out and I have little confidence in anything over 72 hours.
Have a great weekend.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)