As you can see from the charts, we are between a series of relatively weak weather systems. Today we have a weak warm front stalled along the US/Canadian border. A weak cold front will shift inland on Friday. The models are NOT in agreement about how fast or when this will move in. Weak high-pressure (1027MB) off the Oregon and Washington Coast will maintain a weak onshore flow this weekend. In the satellite picture you’ll see some weak cloud structure but very little to define any weather systems.
Click to enlarge images.
The UW model is perhaps the most optimistic forecasting winds of 15 knots from the west for the start and then building into the 15-20 knot range from the NW as you work your way towards Ballenas. This should start to ease as the gradient weakens over the area by about mid-afternoon.
This will continue to ease through the evening dropping to around 10 knots from the West by mid evening 2100 hrs. Around midnight there will be patches of breeze with another blast of NW 15 filling down the Straits until about 0300 Saturday when it will start to die off.
After 0300 a conflict will develop between the remnants of the low to NE of the race area and the onshore flow bringing light air to the mainland side of the course and spotty NW breeze to the Vancouver Island side of the course. Expect drainage winds out of Howe Sound and spotty breeze over the Straits.
Running the polars for the TP-52’s, I have them around the course in 36 hours.
Sorry about that.
One of the keys to the race will be how and when this weak frontal system passes over the race course. The best way is to chart the barometric pressure readings as provided by Environment Canada on the VHF Wx . Note particularly Halibut Bank, Sentry Shoal, South Brooks, La Perouse Bank, and Buoy JA at the mouth of the Straits of JdF. When the pressure finally bottoms out and starts to rise that will signal the onshore flow starting to build.
When the pressure quits building, start looking for the windseeker.
HAVE A GREAT RACE and above all, HAVE FUN!
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)