Welcome to springtime in the Pacific Northwest! Last night it was spin the weather wheel and don’t be surprised at what comes up. Rain, snow, sleet, hail, and localized gusty winds all made guest appearances depending upon where you were. That is, however, spring in the Pacific Northwest.
This mornings surface analysis chart shows a weak area of low pressure (1000MB) with an attached frontal system just off our coast. Normally this would bode well for wind tomorrow, however, check the 500MB charts and you will see that the jet stream will drag this system slowly to the south and weaken it overnight. Instead of the low moving through the Salish Sea, it will come ashore near the southern Oregon coast late Saturday and disappear by Sunday. This system will still supply some wet weather over the weekend. The High-pressure (1030MB) you see off of Northern California will build and drift slowly to the East giving us some nice weather and warming temperatures next week. Look at the 500MB charts and as you can see, the jet stream will come across the Pacific at 30N-35N picking up the warmer air before arcing over that high and coming into our area. Low-pressure systems will still come into our area however they are weakening.
As for the Tree Tree Point Race, there will be tides, just not very much of them. At least they’ll be against us.
Tidal Current at West Point.
0748 Max Flood .53 knts
1024 Slack
1200 Max Ebb .29 knts
1406 Slack
2024 Max Flood 1.01 knts
The models are in agreement about what will happen tomorrow. They are NOT in agreement about when it will happen, not unusual. The basic situation is that we’ll start in a light (5-10 knots) southwesterly, it will get light about mid-day before it finally fills down from the north at 5-10 knots around mid-afternoon, winds generally closer to 5 than 10. Very little time under spinnaker but a lot of time beating. The Univ of Washington model is more optimistic with winds closer to 10 than to 5. With the GFS model, I have Crossfire around the course in just under six hours. The Race Committee did the right thing the last time when it looked like it was going to get flukey, I suspect they’ll do the same tomorrow. As my friend Nigel says, “There’s no real racing south of Alki.” The wind will be better in the central Sound north of Alki and south of Kingston.
Having said that, the problem is that as the wind goes into transition, it will die on the east side of the Sound first which will make marks placed there (Duwamish Head, Buchan Buoy, Pt. Wells)challenging.
A look deep into the crystal ball for next weekend, South Straits of Georgia. The high-pressure that is setting up offshore will tend to drift to the northwest and the gradient will ease over the area. The start is liable to be light on Friday however it does appear that by Friday afternoon the gradient will tighten and there should be a nice northwesterly over the race course. So for now, and remember woefully inaccurate, it doesn’t look like a gear buster. We’ll have a special South Straits update this Thursday, with a regular Bruce’s Briefs on Friday.
Have a great weekend.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)