The good news is that the forecast models are actually starting to converge and looks like this could be a relatively pleasant race. What a difference a week or a day can make! If we had started last Friday by Friday night some boats might have been seeking shelter from 40+ knots. If we had started this morning we would now be in 30+ knots at Sisters.
As you can see from the surface charts we do have another front that will be passing over us tomorrow probably sometime between 1200 and 1400 hrs. This is a cold front so make sure you are going to be prepared for some wet and cold especially tomorrow night. Not below freezing but with the wind chill you might be just above freezing, 5⁰-8⁰ C.
For the start, expect 5-15 knots from the SSE. As you work your way west out of English Bay and towards Halibut Bank the wind will begin to back very slightly and there will be some topographical compression resulting in higher wind speeds, not excessive but in the 12-18 knot range as you approach Sangster and Lasqueti Island. This will not last long as the gradient will begin to ease with frontal passage. Since the low-pressure system will be slowly curving away from the coast, the wind won’t completely evaporate but it will ease.
As the post-frontal wind comes down the Straits of Juan de Fuca it will curve up into the race course bringing slightly more wind to the west side of the course from Entrance Island south. North of Entrance, the mountains on Vancouver Island will begin to act a block keeping the breeze lighter near the Island. As the sun goes down know where your competitors and mark them with the handbearing compass to see who goes light where.
By 2200 to 0400 the breeze will tend to be from the SSW to SW in the 8-12 knot range. After around 0400 the breeze will drop consistently over the course down to the 5-10 knot range. After 0900 on Saturday, the breeze may drop even more, just in time to coincide with the building ebb near the finish line. YUK! By late the morning, we will start to see the breeze back to the SE and become a little spotty, especially from Halibut back to the finish. From about 1300 until about 1500 there will be a slight increase in the breeze but dropping again and then severely glassing off around 1700. Watch for the drainage breeze as you get closer to the finish.
Above all else try to finish before 1700 hrs on Saturday.
Editor’s Note: I’ll do a wrapup after the race, and would love to include some first-hand tales as I won’t be making the trip. Please send stories (long or short), snapshots and video links to kurt@meadowpointpub.com. Thanks! Good luck to all.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)