WOW! 117 boats turning out for this great event! In fact, it’s so good even editor Kurt Hoehne will be out in the mighty Slipstream, be forewarned. Unfortunately, the models are not in agreement at all except on one thing and that is that there will be more wind in the morning than in the afternoon. The early starters will have an advantage as will the boats with really tall rigs i.e. Crossfire and Smoke. The taller the rig, the more wind there will be off the water.
(Ed. Note: Folks, this is a great race and The Sailing Foundation is a great organization for promoting sailing. If you’re not sailing, consider donating anyway. At some point tomorrow I’m going to try to do a little live video to the sailish.com Facebook page. We’ll see how that goes. See you out there! And what Bruce meant to say was, be sure to pass Slipstream to leeward. – Kurt)
Tides are interesting and I did double check the tides so the times are correct. The reason for the big disparity in the afternoon will be apparent if you look at the chart.
0806 Slack
0942 Max Ebb .48 knots
1200 Slack
1818 Max Flood 1.12 knots
For the most part, we will be sailing in relatively little current, just pray for more wind. The other interesting feature is the IR satellite image which shows that we will also have some moisture headed our way, for a change. Kidding. Yet another month of near-record rainfall comes to an end with double the “normal” amount for the month. April will be much the same.
As you look at the surface charts you can see the problem developing as the next system passes with the center of the low staying to the south of us and really opening the pressure gradient, which won’t leave us with much wind. The post frontal will result in stronger breezes coming down the Straits however if it does come down the Sound it won’t be much.
In the starts before noon look for 5-12 knots of wind from the south with a slight southeasterly along Shilshole. This will be a pretty standard race compounded by the problem that in light air, the zone of dirty air extends further aft from the boats in front of you. Figure that in 5-8 knots of wind the zone will extend 15-20 times the mast height astern of the boat in front of you. Clear air in this size of the fleet will be highly prized and should be fought for all the time. In the starting area because it will be so close to the Shilshole breakwater it will pay to hold starboard off the start line to get to the breakwater before you tack. Don’t sail into the restricted area as marked by the buoys off the south end of the breakwater. Hold port tack to West Point and then beat feet to the west and Bainbridge Isl. Again, focus on staying in clear air and don’t tack back to starboard after West Point because the ebb will be flowing along the Magnolia Bluff. It was definitely there last weekend and with the rain this week, I suspect it will be there again this weekend.
Once you get west and work your way up to the Rock, start watching the boats that have rounded ahead of you to see who is doing well. The southerly breeze will start to lighten up from the east first so staying slightly west, i.e. do the port pole set and delay your gybe to stay in more wind.
The next problem will be the rounding at Meadow Point because it is at this mark that the fleet tends to compress and folks have problems getting their kites down, getting the headsail sheeted properly, all the time while headed towards the beach with all kinds of boats screaming for shore room. Negotiate early and often and make sure there is only one person on the boat doing your inter-fleet communication. Plan your approach to the finish and watch as there may be more wind outside which may offset the port tack lift on the inside.
While the central and south Sound will have light air there is a gale watch in effect for the eastern end of the Straits which will last through tomorrow and may downgrade to a small craft advisory for Sunday.
Have fun stay safe, stay dry and enjoy the weekend!
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)