It’s the last race of the Center Sound Series and only a week to go before the Sloop Tavern Blakely Rock Benefit Race. Not only is the weather warming up, so is the racing and so is the cruising. For the first time in a long time, there were boats headed across the Sound to Blake Island this morning. Those folks are the smart ones as they are testing their boats before they go on the longer cruises later this spring or summer. This will give them plenty of time to make arrangements with their boatyard, boat maintenance facility or sailmaker to get any problems taken care of before the late spring/summer rush puts you way down the list. Just a thought….
(Ed. Note: We’re trying something new to us, a forum! If you want to discuss Bruce’s brief, the race or the series, try going here. You’ll have to create a login in the sidebar at the right. Of course, keep it civil and productive. Also, please help spread the word about this weather brief and the forum.)
While we’ve had yet another fairly wet week, tomorrow actually looks fairly decent with minimal rain and a nice breeze for racing even though we are going south of Alki. However, don’t get all excited and break out the lawn chairs and BBQ quite yet. Be sure to look at the 28 March Surface Forecast Chart and note that fairly nasty 973MB Low-Pressure system in the mid-Pacific with the label Hurricane Force. Yes, it will slightly degrade as it comes across the Pacific however it’s on track to get to the Pacific Northwest by next weekend. We’ll be watching that one.
Tidal Current at Sewage Point, whoops, I mean West Point.
0918 Slack
1224 Max Flood .85 knots
1512 Slack
1718 Max Ebb .43 knots
2006 Slack
Since the tides are fairly minimal and mostly favorable we’ll focus on the wind and the course. The front on today’s chart rolled through our area between 0600 and 0700 this morning and we are now in a post-frontal situation which will hold through Saturday and see the offshore wind go from due southerly now to southwesterly and then westerly tomorrow before backing to the south-southeast on Sunday. The good news is that when the wind finally does force its way down the Straits into Admiralty Inlet, we should be finished. Keep your fingers crossed. The models are currently in agreement that we should have consistently south-southwesterly breeze over the entire course. Look for 8 to 15 in the starting area, which should build as you go across Elliott Bay to 10 to 20 and then ease to 10 to 15 from Alki to Three Tree Point. You’ll be sailing primarily on starboard tack and remember that the shortest course is right down the east side of the Sound so start with the headsail in the starboard groove so you can take a short hitch to port, hoist the new jib, and then tack back to the favored starboard tack to drop the old headsail.
Once again, since you’ll be sailing through the slower boats in front of you, find the clear air and don’t spend time sailing in dirty air.
At Three Tree Point, give the Point plenty of clearance. If you go aground here, your friends will never let you forget it. You’ll want to have all your spin gear set up for a port pole, port tack hoist and get this done before you leave the dock so you can keep everyone hiking all the way to the mark.
The run back to the finish should be fairly straight forward with no need to gybe. As you sail up the Sound be sure to watch the boats in front to see if the breeze goes forward near the top end of Vashon and Blake Island before coming aft again north of Alki. Have a headsail tee’d up just in case. This is also a leg where a staysail will pay dividends so talk about that in the morning before you leave the dock. Also, once everything is set and working, send the navigator below to check the wind reports on the VHF to make sure the northerly isn’t coming down the Sound ahead of schedule.
On the run back after about 1400 hours look for the breeze to start to drop from 10-15 to 6-10 knots. It will pay to be an early finisher in your fleet.
Sunday look for a strong pre-frontal southeasterly to develop in the eastern Straits while the breeze will stay less than 10 knots over the central and south Sound and oh yeah, the rain will return on Sunday as well.
Be safe and have a great day on the water.
So how fast will Crossfire go around the course tomorrow? Based upon a course of 30 nm and Crossfire sailing 31.78 miles they should finish in 2 hrs 53 min and 40 secs. WOW!
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)