Yet another very interesting week for weather and for once, Seattle ends up with more snow than Minneapolis for the month of February. Speaking of snow, yes, it could happen tomorrow and this could send all the aerodynamic theorists on your boat into an absolute tizzy. You know who they are, the ones talking about attached or laminar flow, stalling and of course, the Kutta condition. When you sail in the snow you can finally see all of these very nicely and very visibly represented. Let the arm waving explanations begin!
Since there is little to no agreement in the models about what we’ll have for tomorrow, we’ll just start with the tides and there won’t be much of them.
West Point
0818 Slack
1000 Max ebb .42 knots
1518 Slack
1835 Max flood .89 knots
As the saying goes when it comes to racing in Puget Sound: You should have been here yesterday!
The chart of current conditions at West Point shows that this morning we had a gust to 35 knots and while the baro is still dropping, the wind is backing off. An unfortunate trend that will continue through tomorrow. The surface charts show the reason for this as we’re going to have frontal passage this afternoon and into the early evening. The chart for Saturday morning shows the front well into Eastern Washington leaving a large gap in the isobars for Puget Sound and an onshore flow of cool, ok COLD, unstable air.
Almost all the models show wind from the south in the 5-8 knot range for the start however by noon they start to widely diverge with the wind in some cases dropping into the less than 4-knot range and clocking to the southwest. Other models show it dropping to the 4-6 knot range and backing to the south-southeast. By 1400 hours one model has the breeze glassing off south of West Point and becoming light and variable over the rest of the course but starting to fill back in by 1800 hrs. Trust me, we’ll all be very wet and cold by that time and should be back at the Club for some well-deserved warming fluids.
While the tide may only be around .5 knots, that will still be enough to send you towards the east shore from the starting line. There will still be a very localized southeasterly from the starting area south to West Point. This will mean that you can get both port tack lifts and stay out of the tide. Once you get to West Point it will be time to hold port tack and beat feet to the west. This is where you’ll want to be very careful to find a lane of clear air because remember, the slow boats are starting first and as the fleet converges, the wind will get very chopped up. If you’re sailing low and slow and unable to get to target boat speed you’re probably sailing in dirty air. Don’t hesitate to take some short hitches to get back into clear air, you simply can’t afford to sail in dirt all the way across the Sound. Your tactician should be thinking two to four tacks ahead to keep you out of trouble.
There are still no points for hitting Blakely Rock even though people try that every year so know the limits. If this is the first race of the year for you, plan on a bear away set, pole to port and then take plenty of time to get set up for the gybe. There will tend to be more wind to the west so holding to the west of rhumb and staying in touch with your competition is probably the conservative way to play this leg.
While on this leg if you start getting dramatic puffs from the southwest, that is usually an indication that the breeze is going to drop and potentially die. If the breeze stays from the south and backs slightly to the south-southeast, sail in those puffs and stay on the favored gybe to the mark, sailing the long gybe first. This is also NOT going to be the Miller Time leg. Trimmers and that means everyone is going to have to constantly play the kite, raise and lower the pole, trim the main, and keep the boat at top speed all the time. Remember also that when you get a puff from ahead, don’t sail off immediately, trim for max speed and only after the boat has gotten up to speed do you try to work the boat down.
From the leeward mark to the finish, if it’s light and from the west-southwest, just keep the boat moving towards the finish, holding on starboard tack but staying in the clear air. Don’t let too many people accumulate in the cockpit and it’s not all bad to get folks below deck and on top of the keel. On the downwind leg, check the lay of the finish line so you know which end is favored. Remember that with all the rain, the ebb will last longer and in the vicinity of the finish line, it might be a little stronger because of the outfall from the Ship Canal so watch COG and SOG as you get close to Meadow Point.
Good luck, have a great race and don’t forget those daffodils for when you round Blakely Rock.
Ed. Note: A forecast like this wouldn’t have dampened Kelly O’Neill’s enthusiasm. In fact she’d light up the Sound! Daffodils, all.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)