Happy New Year and let’s all resolve to use our boats more this year!
Not sure what the wind gods have against TTPYC and their Duwamish Head Race but it looks like this could be yet another frustrating day on the water. The key word for tomorrow is patience. There will be wind but not until later which will keep boats on the course well into the Seahawks game. There will also be light spots on the course particularly as you get towards the Des Moines side as you approach the finish after between 1500 and 1800 hrs. Generally speaking, the east side of the Sound north of Three Tree Point (TTP) will tend to be lighter because of the high hills above the water. Stay off the beach but watch your COG and SOG.
The tides shouldn’t be a huge factor unless it gets to 0 gusting to a ½ knot after about 1500 hrs. See below.
Tides at Alki Point
0706 Slack
0900 Flood .23
1100 Slack
1600 Ebb .76
2012 Slack
As you can see from surface charts we have a couple of weak low pressure systems trying to push their way onshore and move that persistent (and cold) 1039 MB high pressure system off to the east-southeast. Unfortunately, that high is still strong enough to keep these fronts at bay and by slowing their approach and weakening them as they get closer to the coast. There will be plenty of breeze in the coastal waters and strong pre-frontal south easterlies in the east and central Straits of JdF on Saturday and into Sunday however it will only show up in fits and starts in the central to south Sound.
As far as tactics go for the race, this will be a classic Puget Sound sucker punch with plenty of SE (8-10 kts) wind for the start and getting to TTP after which the breeze will start to drop with the Sound glassing off around Alki after about 1130. That’s when you’ll start to get puffs of breeze still from the SE. It will be very much like last year with breeze to Alki and then very puffy and light to get into the mark at Alki.
From Duwamish to Blakely Rock, if you can get around BR before sunset and get aimed back to the finish you stand a pretty good chance of finishing. Otherwise it’s going to very light behind BR. By 2000 hrs there will be fairly steady (8-10 kts) southeasterly over the entire course. Then it’s just a matter of making the time limit which is 13 hours after your start.
Oh, and it will be cold with a slight chance of snow mixed with rain. Stay warm and stay hydrated. Good luck!
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)