The picture now is becoming clearer as the MD 20/20 boys continue to extend their lead. As of 1200 PDT today they were about 80 miles ahead of the next group of steak knife hunters and are only about 170 miles from the finish which at their current speed will have them at the finish sometime between 0300 and 0900 Thursday morning.
Speaking of the Steak Knife Hunters, that fleet has tightened up considerably as the Jungle Kitty went inside of Hunter Island while Madrona and Broderna went the more traditional outside route and closed up with Jungle Kitty now only about 6 miles ahead of Madrona and Madrona about the same distance ahead of Broderna. It is going to be a real drag race to the finish in light of the upcoming weather. Don’t be surprised to see Broderna pass both the monohulls tomorrow as the wind frees up and builds.
What is also becoming clear is that the fleet will be in for some breeze starting Thursday afternoon as a series of fast moving fronts will be making their way over the fleet. As you can see in the Thursday PM surface chart there is a 1009MB low with an attached front aimed right for Dixon Entrance (DE) with a frontal system that extends south to the Washington coast. This will have the wind build from the south-southeast in Queen Charlotte Sound (QCS) and the south Hecate Strait (SoH) to 10-20 knots from the south. This will work its way north to the North Hecate( NoH) and Dixon Entrance (DE) by late Thursday, early Friday and then it is going to crank up to 15-25 along the BC coast with 30+ in the open waters between the QC I and the coast, all from the Southeast to South.
By mid day Friday you’ll have the first front pass through the area and the wind will moderate to 10-20 in QCS, 15-20 SoH, and 20-30 NoH all from a generally southern direction. By Friday evening the barometer will start to drop again as another front approaches the race area.
By early Saturday the fleet can expect 25-30 in SoH, 20-25 NoH and DE. By mid day Saturday the next front will pass and the fleet can expect 30+ in QCS, 15-30 SoH, and 20-30 NoH and DE. By late afternoon Saturday conditions will moderate somewhat as a ridge of high pressure rebuilds along the coast. The fleet can then expect SSW breeze of 10-20 in QCS and SoH, WNW 10-15 NoH, and westerly 15-20 in DE. By late Saturday the fleet will be looking at WNW 15 in QCS, NW 15-20 SoH and NoH, and W 15-20 DE.
We probably don’t need to remind anyone that this can be one very nasty stretch of water and while this isn’t as bad as the storms of winter, these are not conditions to be taken lightly. The other factor will be just how tired these teams will be at this point in the race. Safety first, last, and always.
Ed. Note: Thanks to Bruce for providing all the weather insights, and thanks to Carl Sutter and the Fisheries Supply gang for serving as starting boat back in Port Townsend. We spoke to him a little while ago, and he was excited to be a part of this grand adventure. Finally, thanks to all of you for discovering this blog – please share the discovery!
As Bruce changes hats from Meteorologist from Afar to Meteorologist on the Water when he navigates Crossfire in Vic-Maui, we’ll all have a chance to provide our own critique! kmh
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)