Almost the same story as last week since we really should be racing today. The drones were out early and showed solid northerly from Shilshole almost all the way to the bottom end of Vashon. It will not be the same tomorrow.
A glance at the surface charts shows a very interesting scenario with a series of weak, dissipating, slow-moving low pressure systems surrounding the Pacific Northwest. There are also weakening frontal systems attached to the lows that are offshore however they are dissipating as well. So while we have a lovely northerly today by early Saturday that will change to a southerly. The models (once again) are not converging so how this transition will occur and how it will affect us is not clear at this time. Oh well, it’s sailboat racing in Puget Sound.
The tides however will be there and they won’t be bad as the first quarter moon is today which mean neap tides, not a lot of volume exchange.
Tides at West Point
0742 Slack
0927 Max Flood .2
1140 Slack
1506 Max Ebb .6
1835 Slack
2139 Max Flood .7
Tides at the Narrows
0732 Slack
0943 Max Flood 1.8
1238 Slack
1606 Max Ebb 2.2
1916 Slack
2214 Max Flood 3.2
As far as wind goes, one model has us starting in a dying northerly transitioning to a 10 knot southwesterly by noon to 1400 hrs. The other model has us starting in a due southerly of 10 knots which fades as we approach Pr. Robinson. All of which makes sense if you look at the surface charts. They send weather men to the Pacific Northwest to teach them humility, now you can see why.
By mid afternoon the models agree that we should have at least 8-10 knots of south-southwesterly breeze which will make for a nice run up Colvos to the finish. Both models have the big boats finishing the long course by about 1730 hours after a 0900 hrs start in very light air.
Before you leave the house check the Ferry Weather and the wind at Pt. No Point, West Point, and Point Robinson. Once you’re on the boat start logging the pressure reports and the station reports to try and get a feel for how this is changing.
Saturday will be the day that tacticians will earn their keep as they will have to keep trying to deal with a weather situation that is in a constant state of flux. For the crew, the trimmers will be working their tails off while the rest of the boat will be watching what is going on around them. Have the barber haulers rigged and be ready to go to a kite at any time. Wind seekers could be big money makers in the transition zones.
Have a great race.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)