It’s the last race of the Series and I could say that it’s going to be interesting. However, that is generally true every time you leave the dock to go sailing in the Spring in Puget Sound. What makes this more interesting than most days is the fact that the models have diverged instead of the usual converging the way they tend to as we get closer to the date in question. The reason for this can be seen in the Surface Forecast Charts for tonight and tomorrow. (Remember to subtract seven now to get from UTC to PDT.) As you can see, we have a weak area of high pressure to the east with an approaching front, tailing off of a weak and dissipating low pressure system centered off of southeast Alaska. That’s coming in off the Pacific with a weak high pressure system behind it.
The speed of this front has been inconsistent and generally speaking, weak frontal systems tend to slow as they get closer to the coast. As you can see, this cold front has been overrunning the warm front ahead of it creating an occluded front, very typical however when this occurs as the fronts approach the coast it makes it difficult to predict how fast the front will come onshore. Hence, the word interesting.
Tomorrow’s race will all come down to how we handle the highly variable conditions. Combined with the following tides at West Point:
0603 Slack
0919 .9 Ebb
1303 Slack
1548 .7 Flood
1907 Slack
It will be challenging to say the least. Based upon this morning’s GRIB files we’ll probably have 3-5 knots from the SSE to start, with the wind slowly clocking around to SSW and 4-8 knots at 1330 before it starts to back and slowly build from the SSE and maybe getting up to 8-10 knots.
For the big boats that will mean finishing at 1500-1600 hrs, in other words right at max flood.
So in these variable conditions and a lot of sailing in anti-water it will be important to remember that the shortest possible course will be down the East side of the Sound. Keep a hand bearing compass handy to track how any defectors to the West might be doing. There will be a fair amount of current at West Point and there will tend to be less wind in Elliott Bay so holding port tack out from West Point will get you into less tide and should keep you in more breeze. It’s usually picking your way across Elliott Bay to Alki that can create both major gains and losses. From Alki south to TTP it will be a matter of finding the best breeze and trying to see if there’s a pattern to the oscillations.
The run home from TTP could be very interesting as one set of GRIBs has the wind around to 230-240⁰M at 6-8 knots which could mean Code O’s for the fast boats. The NAM GRIBS have the wind staying between 185⁰ and 200⁰M. Either way, trimmers and drivers are going to have to be working very hard. Since we’ll be fighting the flood all the way north, the temptation will be to stay east out of the flood while still sailing the polars and keeping the boat at targets. Ideally, you’d look for shifts to gybe back to the east to get out of the flood if you find yourself sailing in anti-water however if there has been any clearing during the day in the afternoon this will cause the wind to lift off the east shore so it may get light if you get in too close. Eyes out of the boat!
Click on any image to enlarge:
So in the morning get every extra ounce of non-essential gear off the boat, drain the water tanks and take only enough fuel to get safely home from TTP. It’s not an overnight race so don’t let the crew bring huge seabags with a change of clothes for every watch change and the post race party. Bring on board only what you are wearing and going to eat. Carefully log the pressure from your WX-VHF so you can track how fast the front is coming ashore. Before you leave the house check the Washington State Ferry Weather, the NDBC West Point(WPOW1) Plot of wind and pressure, and the NWS radar at Langley Hill to see if the front is showing up on the Doppler. During the race track the pressure changes and wind velocities at the stations north and west of West Point as the south-southeasterly will move south and build from that direction.
Remember also that it can get a little shallow at TTP so resist the temptation to cut it too close. If there was ever a place to make sure the crew is all on the same page, thinking three maneuvers ahead, and the driver and tactician are anticipating mark rounding situations, it’s at the rounding mark “C” at TTP. Don’t hesitate to talk it through, the foredeck will greatly appreciate a plan that you can stick to.
Have a great time and a safe race.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)