I think we will agree that we’ve had enough wind this week, but going north to Scatchet Head we’d really like to have enough to get all the way around the course.
Well, even though we are between fronts again, it definitely looks like we will have breeze. In a nutshell, the breeze will be stronger in the morning (15-20 knots)and building as you sail north (20 to 25+knots). On the beat on the way back the breeze should ease a little and then start build again. See the 1500 hour MM5 chart with 30 knots possible in the Richmond Beach –Pt Wells area.
There is another fairly strong system approaching the coast however it won’t get here until Sunday late afternoon or early evening. Look for a southeasterly in the starting area becoming a building due southerly as you work your way north to the mark. So be prepared before you leave the dock in the morning with the crew all in pfd’s, safety harnesses, and tethers, with the jacklines rigged and in place.
Next think about which headsail you’ll want to use for the beat back from Scatchet Head because that’s the headsail you’ll want to use in the starting area for this downwind start. Next, anticipate where you’ll want to do your final gybe before the mark in the building breeze.
The tide will be at near max ebb in the starting area so don’t get caught below the line trying to beat back up with a tide trying to push you to north and your entire fleet reaching over the top of you giving you a massive dose of dirty air.
You will probably hold the starboard gybe off the line until about halfway to the Richmond oil docks where the breeze will start to clock and lift you. That’s when to gybe to port and work your way back to the center of the Sound. Between the oil docks and the Edmonds Ferry Dock you’ll probably want to gybe back to starboard. You’ll hold starboard until you can gybe back to a layline that is east of the Scatchet Head mark. Why? Because the ebb tide will be pushing you towards the mark to pushing you to west and past the mark. The ebb will probably be flowing at 1 to 1.5 knots flowing due west as you approach the mark.
Another possibility is that if it is really cranking as you sail north and you don’t feel particularly comfortable about gybing, sail past that layline and then drop the kite behind the headsail, get everything under control and then do the gybe. This way you’ll have plenty of time to get your fast settings for the beat before you get to the mark.
You’ll probably round and come up on to a port tack. Only hold this for about 100 yards at the most before you tack back to starboard and get to the Edmonds shore. The ebb is going to last until around 1400 hours and maybe longer as there will be plenty of water coming down the Snohomish River and out Possession Sound. Since we’ll all have a couple of hours of ebb to fight after rounding you may want to think twice about going to the west as that would mean having to cross the ebb twice to get to the finish. Going to the east has two advantages. The first being that after you get off the Possession Bar and you can start to see north into Possession Sound you’ll begin to get the advantage of the ebb flowing south out of Possession. The water will also get flatter and there will be a very localized south-southeasterly along that beach which will allow you to hold port tack as you sail roughly parallel to shore north of the Edmonds Ferry Dock. The breeze may also lighten as you get in closer to the beach. Watch your COG and SOG on port, and when you get back out into anti-water, tack back to starboard and go back into the beach.
As you beat past the Ferry dock, the breeze will once again stay out of the due south and you’ll be in the ebb which will begin to ease around 1500 hours. it will be about .3 knot less on the east shore than if you were fighting it on the west shore of the Sound. Remember also that from Edmonds south to Point Wells there is a very shallow area that goes out quite a ways so watch the sounder. The same as you go from Point Wells to Richmond Beach. South of there it will be a matter of finding lanes of clear air, working the beach and not spending too much time out in the ebb.
As you come up the beach and get closer to the finish off of Meadow Point don’t go so far in that you overstand the finish. It’s OK to tack to port to come off the beach with some in the bank because the ebb and the flow out of the Ship Canal will push you below the layline and you probably don’t want to have to tack back to starboard to get to the finish.
Be safe and have a great race.
(Feature photo – courtesy Jan Anderson – of Absolutely coming back to Seattle with a broken mast. The new Absolutely is looking good and chances are Charlie Macaulay and company will very careful with their gybes this year!)
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)