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We started the week with a deficit of rainfall and as of today we are only .2” behind and that will probably be gone by the middle of this week. While San Diego and the rest of California certainly got the brunt of this week’s rain, it is pretty nice today from Pt Conception south. Judging by the surface charts and 500MB Charts, California will continue to get most of the rain however Oregon and Washington will get pretty close to their seasonal norm.

Today’s surface analysis chart shows a weak high-pressure system (1025-1028MB) off the lower California coast with nine low-pressure systems scattered across the North Pacific. The low off of Haida Gwai has a cold front that extends from the Gulf of Alaska to just west of Hawaii. Combine this with the track of the jet stream, today’s sat pics and you can see why it will be a wet weekend on the West Coast.

The surface forecast chart for the 27^th does show an interesting phenomenon for tomorrow with fog and heavy fog in gale conditions off the coasts of Oregon, Washington, and Vancouver Island. Does not sound like fun to me.

For the rest of the Salish Sea, the usual areas will get breeze: coastal waters, the east end of the Strait of JdF, Admiralty Inlet, and the San Juan Islands. The areas that are traditionally breeze-deprived (the South Sound) will remain so.

As we mentioned above, the other interesting charts are the 500MB or upper-level charts which show the jet stream and it is cranking. Earlier this week a flight from Taipei to LA recorded a speed over ground of 826 mph with the help of a jet stream of 250 mph. As you can see, the flow is still very zonal across the Pacific until it gets almost to our coast where it takes a bend to the NE.  

With these systems coming ashore with regularity we can expect a warm front this afternoon, it’s already blowing 36-knots at Destruction Island. We’ll have another system with breeze on Sunday and then Tuesday into Wednesday. At least temps will remain on the mild side.

Enjoy the weekend. Stay safe and monitor the weather before you leave to go anywhere!

January is just that kind of a month, a little bit of everything. At least we’re not getting what’s happening in the Midwest and East Coast. We were ahead on rainfall for the month for a while, but not this week as we are now .67” behind. As you will see, this will probably be erased this coming week.

Today’s sat pic is especially interesting as it shows the series of fronts we have headed our way. It also shows the next front headed into California. Then if you combine the sat pic with the surface analysis chart you will see why we have gale warnings in the Strait of JdF. With another ridge of high-pressure inland (1043MB) and 995MB low just offshore, that is a pretty steep pressure gradient.

That gradient will ease substantially by Saturday morning bringing light air to the Salish Sea, especially the South Sound.

Sunday will see the conditions change as another series of systems approaches the Pacific NW. Both rain and wind will slowly increase over the day with the rest of the week looking very similar.

The other charts of interest today are the 500Mb, upper-level charts. The chart for today shows a zonal flow across the Pacific before it takes a bend to the north just off the coast of California with the jet stream coming ashore just north of San Francisco. By Sunday this flow becomes even more zonal as the jet stream will now come ashore near the California-Mexico Border. This will allow cooler temps into the Pacific Northwest but nothing like the deep freeze we just had.

Enjoy the weekend!  

What an interesting week for weather in the Pacific NW, a little bit of everything. At least it won’t be as cold as some parts of the Midwest, and we won’t have as much snow as the NE. The good news is that we are now ahead of rainfall for the month and snow is coming to the Cascades and Olympics. True, we are only 03” ahead for the month, but every little bit will help.

Today’s charts and sat pics also provide us with a great view of what is going on and the reasons why. Let’s start with the surface analysis chart which shows a strong ridge of high pressure (1041-1047MB) running parallel and inland from the coast from southern BC to SE Alaska. There is also a weak high (1027MB) off of LA and a weak low-pressure system (1004MB) in the Pacific headed our way. You can plainly see quite a compressed pressure gradient right over the Pacific NW and southern BC. Since winds flow from areas of higher pressure to areas of lower pressure, that’s the reason why we have this strong offshore(ENE) flow. Today’s Pac NW sat pic and the UW MM5 high-resolution chart show the flow out of the Fraser River Valley, through the northern San Juan Islands then out the Strait of JdF, building as it compresses and exits the Straits. You can also see the flow out of Stevens Pass, and then joining the flow out of the Straits. Then moving south, you can see the flow coming out of Snoqualmie Pass, down to Tacoma, out through the Chehalis Gap, and then exiting with the strongest wind just out of Grays Harbor. A great example of colder, denser air sinking and taking the path of least resistance down the pressure gradient. Notice you can also see this in the Sat Pic with a clearing where the wind is the strongest, the mouth of the Straits, and the entrance to Grays Harbor. A very nice correlation between different sources of weather information.

This gradient won’t ease much over the next 24 hours however by Sunday, we should see the winds begin to decrease as the gradient eases. As I mentioned above there will be more wind in the areas generally to the west of the gaps in the Cascades, like the Straits from Port Angeles west to Neah Bay. Then as you move south, areas like Possession Sound and Pt. Robinson southwest to Carr Inlet could see 20+ knots of ENE breeze.

Overall, the message for the weekend is to respect the cold and check conditions before you leave the dock. Then when you return to the dock remember that even in saltwater like Everett, Shilshole Bay, Elliott Bay, Commencement Bay, and Olympia freshwater flows into all those areas and being less dense than saltwater, stays on top and can then freeze in the conditions we have now. So leave the locker doors, engine compartment covers, and floorboards that allow access to thru-hulls open so warmer air can circulate in those areas. Milder conditions with rain will return on Tuesday.

Bundle up and enjoy the weekend!

Today’s sat pic shows it all with a dramatic cold front getting ready to come ashore on Saturday backed up by a large area of cool, unstable air. The surface analysis chart shows the extent of this cold front going from roughly the north end of Vancouver Island all the way to Hawaii with a secondary cold front right behind it. The big waves pounding California will continue.

If you string today’s charts together you will see the bad news as moisture continues to avoid the Pacific NW and with the upper airflow(500MB) coming in from the SW the freezing level will stay well above 4,000ft. This means there will be no snowpack building in the mountains of Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia. For you skiers, it could be a great winter to take up sailing!

For wind, we can expect the strongest breeze to be in the Eastern part of the Strait of JdF on Saturday with 15-25 knots of south-southeasterly. Sunday and Monday the breeze will be light over the Salish Sea.

The other chart of interest will be the 48-hour surface forecast chart with a Roser Low Index of 12 systems visible on the chart. Unfortunately, as we mentioned above, a weak ridge of high pressure along the West Coast will keep most of the rainmakers from coming ashore, and those that do make it will be substantially weakened. We can expect the next system to come into the Pacific NW on Tuesday with not much rain.

Have a safe and Happy New Year!

A little bit of rain today and then a nice break for the weekend with more rain on the 25^th. At least we’re not getting what is happening in California and the East Coast. As of yesterday, we’ve had 6.87” of rain for the month which puts us at exactly 3” ABOVE average. We will probably stay at that gap through the end of the year with our rainfall for the year still below average.

Today’s surface analysis chart and sat pic provide an interesting view for the reason we will have yet another benign weekend of weather. You can clearly see the front that is moving over the area today with the cooler, unstable air behind the front that will move in later today. Off northern California, we have a 1030MB high-pressure system that will develop a weak lobe of high-pressure that will extend into the Pacific NW for most of the weekend. The other feature of interest is the weak low-pressure system just off the Southern California coast with an attached cold front. The reason So Cal got so much rain is in the 500MB chart which shows an upper level, cutoff low-pressure system right over the surface low and since it’s cut off from the jet stream it’s not moving very far or very fast. You can see the jet stream is very zonal, going almost straight across the Pacific before coming ashore near the California-Oregon Border. This flow doesn’t change very much, however it will be enough to move that upper-level low to the east over the weekend.

The surface forecast chart for the 24^th (48hr chart) does show a series of low-pressure systems that will be coming across the Pacific with their attached frontal systems that will impact our weather on the 25^th and then again later in the week. That weak lobe of high pressure that we will have over us will be easily pushed aside by these systems.

The other chart of interest is the surface forecast chart for the 26^th (96hr chart) which shows a very interesting system developing just to the NW of Hawaii. Note that it says Rapidly Intensifying and Developing Hurricane Force Winds. The reason for this is that this low is expected to intensify from 1004MB to 960MB in 24 hours. Now that is truly bombogenesis as it drops 44MB in that time span. With the zonal flow of the jet stream we will want to watch this as it heads our way next week.

For wind this weekend, the usual suspects will bear the brunt of the breeze with the coast and the eastern end of the Straits seeing gale force conditions with post-frontal westerlies. This will ease overnight and by mid-morning, on Saturday the breeze will become a prefrontal south-easterly and build slowly over the weekend with gale conditions by mid-Sunday morning in the Eastern Straits, Admiralty Inlet, Bellingham Bay, and the San Juan Islands. These conditions will hold through the 25^th.

For the Central and South Sound, conditions should be much lighter. Regardless, if you’re going to take advantage of empty anchorages, monitor the conditions before you go anywhere.

Seasons Greetings, have a great and safe weekend.      

It will be quite a quiet weekend over the Salish Sea after a very wet start to December with very little rain in the forecast until about Tuesday. Today’s sat pic is interesting for this time of the year because the entire coast from mid-Vancouver Island to Cabo San Lucas is relatively cloud-free. Winds may pick up from the north over the Sound on Sunday afternoon, however other than that it will be quite benign over the area. The great part of that is that the most popular cruising destinations will be next to empty with everyone getting ready for the holidays.

The surface charts show a moderate high-pressure system inland roughly aligned with the Rockies and a large low-pressure system in the Pacific off California. The upper-level charts show a meridional flow around this upper-level low associated with the surface low. This combination will keep conditions mild in our area.

The upper-level jet stream will slowly change over the next four days as it goes from coming ashore over our area to coming ashore over southern California. This will keep temps on the cool side with low temps still above freezing over the lowlands.

Overall, pretty mild conditions for this time of the year. Enjoy!

It’s pretty hard to ignore the rain we’ve had so far in December. Last week we said we could have the same amount of rain for all of November in the first two weeks of December. We were wrong. Last month we had 5.71” of rain, in the first week of December, we had 5.78”, with more on the way. Luckily, the freezing level is dropping so tonight and tomorrow we’ll be adding to our snowpack in both the Olympics and the Cascades.

If you’re headed out on the water this weekend, chances are there will be wind with some places getting way more than others. The places where you’ll be dealing with gale warnings on Saturday will be the usual suspects, the coast and the eastern end of the Strait of JdF where winds could be from the SE at over 40 knots.

As you work your way down Admiralty Inlet and into the north Sound expect winds to be from the SSE at 15-30 knots. In the Center Sound for Snowbird #2 the breeze will be from the SSW  in the 12-22 knot range. In the San Juan Islands and Bellingham Bay expect SSE breeze of 20-35 knots.

For the Hope Island Race out of Olympia, the breeze will be lighter but there will still be a nice southerly, southwesterly breeze of 8-20 knots depending upon where you are on the course. It will be challenging but fun! Oh, and did I mention rain? There will be plenty of that over the Salish Sea all day on Saturday.

Sunday will see an easing of conditions over the entire area with some breeze in the morning hours but getting light by midday and into the afternoon. Rain will also ease. Another front will come through the area on Wednesday with some drying possible through next weekend.

Regardless of where you are, always check the current conditions on your VHF before you head out and if there’s any doubt, wait it out.

Have a great and safe weekend.