Bruce’s Briefs – Page 3

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 29, 30, 31 Dec, and Happy New Year! A little rainy Saturday, dry Sunday and Monday! Perfect for football.

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs December 29, 2023December 29, 2023 0 Comment

Today’s sat pic shows it all with a dramatic cold front getting ready to come ashore on Saturday backed up by a large area of cool, unstable air. The surface analysis chart shows the extent of this cold front going from roughly the north end of Vancouver Island all the way to Hawaii with a secondary cold front right behind it. The big waves pounding California will continue.

If you string today’s charts together you will see the bad news as moisture continues to avoid the Pacific NW and with the upper airflow(500MB) coming in from the SW the freezing level will stay well above 4,000ft. This means there will be no snowpack building in the mountains of Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia. For you skiers, it could be a great winter to take up sailing!

For wind, we can expect the strongest breeze to be in the Eastern part of the Strait of JdF on Saturday with 15-25 knots of south-southeasterly. Sunday and Monday the breeze will be light over the Salish Sea.

The other chart of interest will be the 48-hour surface forecast chart with a Roser Low Index of 12 systems visible on the chart. Unfortunately, as we mentioned above, a weak ridge of high pressure along the West Coast will keep most of the rainmakers from coming ashore, and those that do make it will be substantially weakened. We can expect the next system to come into the Pacific NW on Tuesday with not much rain.

Have a safe and Happy New Year!

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 22, 23, 24, and Merry Christmas! Happy Day after the Winter Solstice, the days will now start getting longer!

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs December 22, 2023December 22, 2023 0 Comment

A little bit of rain today and then a nice break for the weekend with more rain on the 25^th. At least we’re not getting what is happening in California and the East Coast. As of yesterday, we’ve had 6.87” of rain for the month which puts us at exactly 3” ABOVE average. We will probably stay at that gap through the end of the year with our rainfall for the year still below average.

Today’s surface analysis chart and sat pic provide an interesting view for the reason we will have yet another benign weekend of weather. You can clearly see the front that is moving over the area today with the cooler, unstable air behind the front that will move in later today. Off northern California, we have a 1030MB high-pressure system that will develop a weak lobe of high-pressure that will extend into the Pacific NW for most of the weekend. The other feature of interest is the weak low-pressure system just off the Southern California coast with an attached cold front. The reason So Cal got so much rain is in the 500MB chart which shows an upper level, cutoff low-pressure system right over the surface low and since it’s cut off from the jet stream it’s not moving very far or very fast. You can see the jet stream is very zonal, going almost straight across the Pacific before coming ashore near the California-Oregon Border. This flow doesn’t change very much, however it will be enough to move that upper-level low to the east over the weekend.

The surface forecast chart for the 24^th (48hr chart) does show a series of low-pressure systems that will be coming across the Pacific with their attached frontal systems that will impact our weather on the 25^th and then again later in the week. That weak lobe of high pressure that we will have over us will be easily pushed aside by these systems.

The other chart of interest is the surface forecast chart for the 26^th (96hr chart) which shows a very interesting system developing just to the NW of Hawaii. Note that it says Rapidly Intensifying and Developing Hurricane Force Winds. The reason for this is that this low is expected to intensify from 1004MB to 960MB in 24 hours. Now that is truly bombogenesis as it drops 44MB in that time span. With the zonal flow of the jet stream we will want to watch this as it heads our way next week.

For wind this weekend, the usual suspects will bear the brunt of the breeze with the coast and the eastern end of the Straits seeing gale force conditions with post-frontal westerlies. This will ease overnight and by mid-morning, on Saturday the breeze will become a prefrontal south-easterly and build slowly over the weekend with gale conditions by mid-Sunday morning in the Eastern Straits, Admiralty Inlet, Bellingham Bay, and the San Juan Islands. These conditions will hold through the 25^th.

For the Central and South Sound, conditions should be much lighter. Regardless, if you’re going to take advantage of empty anchorages, monitor the conditions before you go anywhere.

Seasons Greetings, have a great and safe weekend.

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 15, 16, 17, 18, and 19 Dec. A great time of the year to go cruising or go check on the boat and catch up on reading those owner’s manuals.

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs December 15, 2023December 15, 2023 0 Comment

It will be quite a quiet weekend over the Salish Sea after a very wet start to December with very little rain in the forecast until about Tuesday. Today’s sat pic is interesting for this time of the year because the entire coast from mid-Vancouver Island to Cabo San Lucas is relatively cloud-free. Winds may pick up from the north over the Sound on Sunday afternoon, however other than that it will be quite benign over the area. The great part of that is that the most popular cruising destinations will be next to empty with everyone getting ready for the holidays.

The surface charts show a moderate high-pressure system inland roughly aligned with the Rockies and a large low-pressure system in the Pacific off California. The upper-level charts show a meridional flow around this upper-level low associated with the surface low. This combination will keep conditions mild in our area.

The upper-level jet stream will slowly change over the next four days as it goes from coming ashore over our area to coming ashore over southern California. This will keep temps on the cool side with low temps still above freezing over the lowlands.

Overall, pretty mild conditions for this time of the year. Enjoy!

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 8, 9, 10, 11, and 12 Dec. Wash, attempt to dry, repeat.

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs December 8, 2023December 8, 2023 0 Comment

It’s pretty hard to ignore the rain we’ve had so far in December. Last week we said we could have the same amount of rain for all of November in the first two weeks of December. We were wrong. Last month we had 5.71” of rain, in the first week of December, we had 5.78”, with more on the way. Luckily, the freezing level is dropping so tonight and tomorrow we’ll be adding to our snowpack in both the Olympics and the Cascades.

If you’re headed out on the water this weekend, chances are there will be wind with some places getting way more than others. The places where you’ll be dealing with gale warnings on Saturday will be the usual suspects, the coast and the eastern end of the Strait of JdF where winds could be from the SE at over 40 knots.

As you work your way down Admiralty Inlet and into the north Sound expect winds to be from the SSE at 15-30 knots. In the Center Sound for Snowbird #2 the breeze will be from the SSW in the 12-22 knot range. In the San Juan Islands and Bellingham Bay expect SSE breeze of 20-35 knots.

For the Hope Island Race out of Olympia, the breeze will be lighter but there will still be a nice southerly, southwesterly breeze of 8-20 knots depending upon where you are on the course. It will be challenging but fun! Oh, and did I mention rain? There will be plenty of that over the Salish Sea all day on Saturday.

Sunday will see an easing of conditions over the entire area with some breeze in the morning hours but getting light by midday and into the afternoon. Rain will also ease. Another front will come through the area on Wednesday with some drying possible through next weekend.

Regardless of where you are, always check the current conditions on your VHF before you head out and if there’s any doubt, wait it out.

Have a great and safe weekend.

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 Dec. SSSS Winter Vashon, Should be a great one!

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs December 1, 2023December 1, 2023Winter Vashon Race 0 Comment

Every once and a while things come together for what should be a great race. Such is the case for Winter Vashon tomorrow. We have a warm front passing over the area now to be followed by a cold front early tomorrow morning (2-4 am). With frontal passage, a strong onshore flow will develop over the area with gale warnings along the coast and down the Strait of JdF. There will also be a strong onshore flow through the Chehalis Gap and into the South Sound. This will bring 15-25 knots of southwest wind to the racecourse for most of Saturday.

Today we have a moderate onshore flow in the Straits and through the Gap however, this will change to a prefrontal southeasterly later this evening. For the race tomorrow, expect 15-25 knots of WSW breeze in the starting area. As you sail into Colvos Passage the wind will back to the SW and ease slightly however it should still be a hull speed run to the top mark. As you sail north in Colvos, the puffs will tend to be headers so this will require good coordination between the driver and the trimmers. Don’t worry about getting cold, everyone will either be trimming hard or hiking hard on this leg and the next one.

Before you get to the top mark, start thinking about what headsail you’ll be using for the close reach from the top mark to Point Robinson. You will also want to have your barber hauler set up before you round the top mark. The breeze will probably be in the 12-18 knot range on this leg, however, at Pt Robinson expect the breeze to build to 16-25 knots. So, at the top mark set the jib in the port groove so you change down on starboard tack, do a quick tack to get the bigger sail down on port, and then tack back to starboard once you feel the breeze start to ease as you get closer to Maury Island. The puffs as they come over Vashon and Maury Island will tend to be lifts on starboard tack so favor the west side of the rhumb line from Pt Robinson to the finish. As you get closer to the south end of the islands, the breeze will tend to clock from the SW to WSW maybe even to the point of allowing you to barber haul the lead out for the last bit to the finish.

The weather charts, especially the 500MB upper-level charts and satellite pic provide a very clear picture of what we can look forward to this coming week. One weather system after another with plenty of rain and wind. While November may have been quieter and slightly dryer than normal, that will all change over the next two weeks. For November we had 5.71” of rain compared to an average of 6.31” so just .6” below average. Year to date we’ve had 26.42” compared to an average of 33.62” so 7.2” below normal. In the first two weeks of December, we could easily get what we had for the entire month of November. The real problem with this pattern is that the freezing level will rise substantially to almost 7,000ft and this will diminish the current snowpack and lead to lowland flooding in the usual areas. Should be a very interesting month for weather.

Have a safe, great race, and enjoy the always superb hospitality of TYC!

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for Nov 17, 18, 19, 20, and 21. GHYC LeMans, South Sound Squaxin Island, and CYC Turkey Bowl.

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs November 17, 2023November 17, 2023Turkey Bowl Regatta 0 Comment

For all the doom and gloom forecasts, you would think it was going to be a blowout and washout of a weekend. Not the case at all. The bad news is that our friends in Olympia and Gig Harbor will have very light conditions all day Saturday but no rain. The Turkey Bowl will have some breeze about mid-day on Saturday before becoming light and variable for the rest of the day. Sunday will be a much better day for racing in the Center Sound with SE breeze in the 4-17 knot range all day. The most wind will be along the coast, the Strait of JdF, and Admiralty Inlet after midnight on Saturday as the post-frontal westerly comes onshore.

The surface analysis chart, sat pic, and 500MB charts for today will provide you with a very interesting picture of what is going on up and down our coast. We have centered over us today a weak 1021 MB high-pressure system hence the light air around the Salish Sea. Offshore is quite another story with a weak surface low-pressure system off Southern California that is not going very far or very fast because it is being held in place by an upper-level cutoff low-pressure system. We also have a series of low-pressure systems in the Gulf of Alaska extending as far south as 40N. The extended cold front goes from SE Alaska to almost Hawaii.

On Saturday the low off California will have drifted slowly to the north, while the lows in the Gulf of Alaska will have consolidated and will move slowly and directly towards the Pacific NW. As you can see, the pressure gradient over the Pacific NW will remain weak while the gradient behind the cold front will compress and as it comes ashore Saturday night this will bring the strong post-frontal onshore flow down the Strait of JdF.

The 48hr surface forecast is, as usual, the most interesting as it shows the entire North Pacific and this week you will see two of the deepest/strongest low-pressure systems we’ve seen this fall. The closest one to North America is currently at 982MB but in 24 hours will deepen to 968MB. Almost, but not quite, bombogenesis. That requires a 24Mb drop in 24 hours. Then off Kamchatka, Russia, and moving into the Bering Sea we have a 944MB low with hurricane-force winds on its south side. Keeping the 982MB low from directly impacting the Pacific NW is a 1032MB high off San Francisco. The 500Mb chart also shows the jet stream going over the top of this high and eventually coming ashore off the north end of Vancouver Island. This will keep us dry and with temps slightly above normal.

In this post-frontal onshore flow, the breeze will be from the NW off the coast at 30-40 knots. It will flow down the Strait at 25-35 knots, around the bottom of the Olympics, and through the Chehalis Gap at 20-30 knots. Too bad Squaxin Island and the LeMans Race couldn’t be rescheduled for Sunday. That would make for some sporty sailing especially trying to get out of Gig Harbor. The flow coming up the Sound will persist Sunday giving the Turkey Bowl some great sailing with 4-15 knots of SE most of the day with the breeze backing to the ESE then ENE late in the afternoon.

Very little rain during the daylight hours this weekend, however so far this month we’ve had just over 5” of rain compared to an average of 3.31”. For the year we are still 4.82” below average. Some rain overnight Saturday into Sunday morning and then another weak front will come into the area on Tuesday.

Enjoy the weekend!

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 3, 4, 5, and 6 Nov. If you’re sailing just about anywhere on the Salish Sea this weekend, you’ll have the breeze

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs November 3, 2023November 3, 2023 0 Comment

I guess the pictures of a loaded barge sailing (literally) into the Bell Harbor Pier are enough to confirm just how much breeze there was on Elliott Bay. Kudos to the West Seattle Water Taxi captain, who did the right thing and with his actions kept the Seattle Aquarium and the Big Wheel from major damage. It also serves to illustrate just how valuable the NDBC Graphs can be if you are thinking about heading out on the water. In the graph, you can see the pressure dropping very rapidly (the green line) and just when it hits the bottom you can see we had a peak gust and windspeed of 30-35 knots at West Point. These graphs are a great way to spot trends and when the graph is steep, you know we are in for some weather.

Today’s surface analysis chart and sat pic give you a classic picture of what we have coming for tomorrow. The low in the center of the sat pic is the 984MB low with an attached warm front that will come through the area tonight followed by a cold front that will come through on Saturday. This low is moving off to the NE as our weak string of high-pressure systems inland still have the power to deflect this deepening low into BC. Notice also that this 984MB low will intensify to 976MB overnight. As it hits the coastal buffer zone on Sunday it will finally start to weaken and dissipate.

The 500MB chart shows the jet stream with a SW to NE flow coming ashore near Cape Flattery. As the weekend goes on, the Jet Stream will sag to the south where by Tuesday the Jet Stream will be coming ashore south of San Francisco. This will allow for cooler temperatures and another storm system to come into the Pacific NW early next week.

Last week we mentioned that November is typically the wettest month of the year and the way we starting this year certainly seems to reinforce that thinking. While it’s only the third of November we are almost an inch ahead of the average for this date. In some ways this is good, however, with the warmer than normal temps, we are not yet building snowpack.

As I said at the start of this missive, we are going to have breeze tomorrow. It doesn’t matter if you’re doing Herron Island in the South Sound, the STYC Fall Regatta, the Anacortes Commodores Cup, or the Kits Bluenose Regatta on English Bay. You can and should anticipate sailing in 10-25 knots of S-SE breeze with higher gusts. This means PDF’s, safety harnesses, and jack lines are all on and in place before you leave the dock. When it comes to flying the spinnaker in that kind of breeze, just remember that staying upright is fast, and going sideways is slow. If you’re not comfortable with that kind of breeze, just wing the jib out and watch the carnage develop around you. Live to fight another day. (Ed. Note: I’ve seen none other than Bill Buchan wing the jib out while others were wiping out, only to lead at the leeward mark. Doesn’t always work that way, but can. KH)

Have a great weekend and BE SAFE out there.

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for October 27, 28, 29, 30, and Halloween! A beautiful weekend to be on the water! Cool and breezy today, not so much Saturday and Sunday.

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs October 27, 2023October 27, 2023 0 Comment

Another crazy week of weather and not just in the Pacific NW. The Midwest is about to see the first big blast of cold weather while Mexico continues to clean up after four hurricanes. Don’t look now but a fifth hurricane is forming off Guatemala in conditions very conducive for hurricane development.

For the Salish Sea, the best day for sailing will be today as we have a strong NE flow coming out of the Fraser River Valley because of a strong(1040MB), multi-centered high-pressure system extending from almost Anchorage to Puget Sound. Hence the breeze and the cold temps. Check also the 500Mb Charts as it still has that exaggerated bend going from just north of Hawaii, over the eastern part of the Aleutians, to well north in Alaska before curving back south and then coming ashore in southern Oregon.

By tomorrow, the pressure gradient will ease over the area however the dominant weather feature will be a stalled occluded front running down the coast of North America from about Seward, Alaska to just north of San Francisco. The inland high-pressure system will also drift to the SE and strengthen to 1043MB. This will bring light air to the Salish Sea and start the development of strong Santa Ana breezes in central and southern California,

This pattern will persist into Sunday with a slight tightening of the pressure gradient over the area. Being the Pacific NW and fall, these conditions won’t last as late Tuesday another frontal system will make its way into the Salish Sea. Don’t worry, it will be dry for trick or treating! From Wednesday on, expect typical typically wet conditions for the Pacific Northwest. November is, after all, typically the wettest month of the year. As a note, going into our El Niño winter it looks like we will end October only about .2” below our average rainfall. A good start.

For wind this weekend, expect light conditions in the central Sound until about early afternoon tomorrow when the weak northerly will build to 10-15 knots out of the north, not the northwest. This will hold until about mid-afternoon Sunday when we could get about 15-20 knots of NW breeze in the central Sound only. The rest of the Salish Sea will see generally light conditions.

Have a great weekend.

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 20, 21, 22, 23, and 24 Oct. Plenty of racing this weekend. Pumpkin Regatta continues at WVYC, Race Your House, and Great Pumpkin at STYC.

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs October 21, 2023October 21, 2023 0 Comment

Another week of record high temps over the Salish Sea, while the Midwest and East Coast prepare for the first blast of winter and a late-season hurricane with plenty of rain will hit Cabo tomorrow before crossing the Sea of Cortez and curving into the State of Sinaloa. This is just a preview of how crazy this winter could be.

Yesterday’s surface analysis chart shows our weak (1026MB) and amorphous Pacific High at about 48N 143W with a weak low (1014MB) just east of the Cascades. Yesterday’s sat pic shows a weak and disintegrating front moving onshore today. As you can see from the surface charts, the pressure gradient will remain weak over the weekend. As is the normal progression in the Pacific NW, the first day after frontal passage will see a weak ridge of high-pressure rebuild over the area and bring the best wind. This ridge will progressively weaken over the weekend bringing lighter wind. The wind will be lighter in the morning then as the day progresses a slightly stronger onshore flow will develop over the inland waters. The best wind for this weekend will probably be in the Strait of Georgia, especially on the west side of the Strait.

This bodes well for WVYC Pumpkin Regatta which will see remarkably consistent winds of 4-12 knots from the WNW for Saturday with the possibility of a slightly stronger breeze in the mid to late afternoon. Sunday will see lighter conditions with the wind going from the NW to the WSW in the afternoon but probably staying at less than 8 knots.

For the STYC Regattas, the problem will be if they try to use the Z mark on the west side of the Sound against the north side of Port Madison. With a prevailing north wind of 10 knots or less in the central Sound, the breeze at the Z mark will be lighter and if boats have difficulty in there, that will just chop up what breeze there is even more.

The other charts of interest this weekend are the upper level or 500MB charts which show an exaggerated meridional flow. By the 24^th of Oct, the jet stream will travel from 30N to 64N before curving back south to 45N and coming ashore near the mouth of the Columbia. This is what will bring cooler temps to the Salish Sea next week with the possibility of some light, mid-week rain. The last week of October could be fairly wet, but we’ll see.

Enjoy the weekend!

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 13, 14, 15, 16, and 17 Oct. Pumpkin Regatta WVYC, PSSC CYC Seattle, and Eagle Island Race South Sound, Lots going on this weekend.

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs, Racing October 13, 2023October 13, 2023PSSC regatta 0 Comment

Lots of sailing going on this weekend combined with plenty of weather. In other words, a typical fall weekend with an Annular Eclipse topping. We just won’t be able to see it because it’s going to be raining. Just about everywhere.

Today’s surface analysis chart shows a series of low-pressure systems aimed right at the Salish Sea. Until you look at the 992MB low just off our coast, which now is projected to move in a NNW direction and parallel the coast up into SE Alaska. The attached cold front will drag across the Salish Sea with gusty winds. With the coastal buffer zone in play, this front will weaken as it comes onshore. This means the strongest breeze will be along the coast, the eastern end of the Strait of JdF, and the northern part of the San Juan Islands.

The other interesting chart is the 48hr surface forecast chart 15 Oct, which shows the entire north Pacific. In the middle is a very large low-pressure system (950MB) which is actually the remnants of Typhoon Bolaven and at this point, it is aimed at the California/Oregon Border. True, it is projected to weaken to 962MB and it should continue to weaken however if it does make landfall, it will still be a significant storm. It is particularly interesting that this week is the anniversary of the 1962 Oct 12 storm which was also the result of a weakened, post-tropical Typhoon.

How all of these will affect the racing this weekend is shown below:

Time Eagle Island PSSC Pumpkin Regatta

0900 S 5-11 SSW 3-7 SE 7-12

1000 SSW 3-7 S 3-7 SE 5-11

1100 S 2-7 S 4-11 SE 5-12

1200 SSW 2-6 S 8-12 ESE 4-9

1300 SSW 3-5 S 4-8 SE 4-9

1400 SSW 3-5 SSW 3-8 SE 4-9

1500 S 6-9 SE 3-10 SE 5-10

1600 WSW 8-11 SE 3-8 SE 5-10

1700 WSW 0-5 SE 4-9 ESE 8-13

Sunday

0900 ESE 0-6 ESE 8-14

1000 E 4-8 E 6-12

1100 SSE 3-6 ESE 6-10

1200 L&V* E 4-8

1300 L&V ESE 3-6

1400 ENE 3-5 E 2-5

1500 NE 3-6 E 2-5

1600 N 4-8 E 2-5

1700 N 3-5 E 2-5

*Light & Variable

Not terrible conditions but mainly light with rain . A much stronger front will come through on Monday.

Enjoy the weekend and stay safe.

Bruce Hedrick

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