Best weekend of the year so far is the good news. If you’re a sailor and you liked last weekend, you’ll love this weekend as it will pretty much be a repeat with light air over the Salish Sea. The surface analysis for today shows a weak ridge of high-pressure extending all the way from SE Alaska to the Mexican Border with a weak low-pressure system (1018MB) just off the coast. By tomorrow that low will be gone and the ridge of high pressure over the Pacific Northwest will strengthen leaving no real pressure gradient over the entire area.
March 29 500MB
March 29 Surface Analysis
March 30 Surface Forecast
march 31 Surface Forecast
April 1 500MB
April 1 Surface Forecast
April 2 Surface Forecast
For most of the area, this will mean we’ll start off with
light southerly breezes that will die off as a northerly flow develops. The
northerly will hold through the weekend keeping temperatures mild and winds
light. It looks like we’ll have another weak frontal system approach the coast
on Monday however don’t expect much rain or wind.
A perfect weekend for some spring cleaning on the boat and
getting ready for the Sloop Tavern Blakely Rock Benefit Race next weekend.
The Ides of March and clearing over the Salish Sea.
The really interesting weather this week occurred over the Central US where there was a bombogenesis event. To have such an event means that you have a low-pressure system that drops 24MB in 24 hours. This low-pressure system rapidly intensified dropping 24MB in just 13 hours and brought hurricane force winds to most of the central plains along with blowing and drifting snow. The central pressure in that low dropped to 956MB. The lowest pressure we’ve seen in the central pacific so far this winter was 954MB in early December.
March 15 Surface Analysis
March 16 Surface Forecast
March 17 Surface Forecast
March 18 500MB
March 18 Surface Forecast
March 19 Surface Forecast
Unfortunately, we won’t have any where near that this weekend. It will be a lovely weekend to be on the water with temps maybe getting up into the low 60’s with the bad news being that there won’t by much wind for the Islands Race. The surface charts show the problem with a weak ridge of high-pressure setting up over central BC and extending south into the US. This will also act as a nice barrier keeping any low-pressure systems well offshore and directing them into SE Alaska. This pattern will persist into early next week with the 500MB charts showing the jet stream remaining in pretty much the same place. The good news is that this will help bring warmer temps to the Pacific NW just in time for spring!
For the Islands Race at least the current will, as usual, be
going the right way in Colvos which will help the fleet get north to the
turning mark where maybe the race will be finished. From the start you’ll want
to find the axis of the current and ride that as you drag race from hole to
hole. Then it will be a race to get to the Tides Tavern and then on to the
Yacht Club for what is always a great party.
Plenty going on this weekend not to mention folks getting
out to practice for the opening CYC Center Sound Series Race, Blakely Rock next
weekend.
As you can see from the satellite image and the Langley Hill Radar we have a frontal system moving through the area today with a weakening low-pressure system sliding southeast from the central BC coast to off the mouth of the Columbia River by Sunday morning. This is not a particularly strong system so there will be some post-frontal breeze (westerly 20+knots) in the central and eastern Straits tonight and into tomorrow morning. This will ease and become a southerly-southeasterly breeze(10-15knots) over the Salish Sea for most of the day before it begins to back off towards sunset.
By late Saturday another
fairly strong ridge of high-pressure(1042MB) will begin to build over northern
BC and this will bring east-northeasterly breeze to the northern San Juan
Islands and into the Strait of JdF. Just how much cold air it will bring to the
region depends on just how far south this high-pressure ridge will extend.
February 22 500MB
February 23 Surface Forecast
February 24 500MB
February 24 Surface
February 24 Surface Forecast
February 25 500MB
February 25 Surface Forecast
February 26 Surface Forecast
As always, I’ve included the upper air charts that show the
flow becoming almost straight across the Pacific by Sunday. I mention this
because the jet stream got into the news this last week as a Boeing 787 Dreamliner was clocked at just over 800mph
ground speed over the northeastern US as it picked up a 230mph tailwind from the jet stream which allowed it to arrive almost an hour ahead of schedule into
London.
Satellite Image
So breaking it down by event,
the Jim Depue Regatta can expect a fairly consistent southerly of 10-15 knots
until late Saturday afternoon, should be some great sailing.
The Port Townsend Shipwrights
Regatta should see the same 10-15 knots but more southeasterly as the breeze
flows up Admiralty Inlet.
The Anacortes crowd will see
the same southeasterly with the possibility of gusts near 20 in the morning before
the breeze begins to ease about mid-afternoon.
Sunday will be a very
different picture depending on where you’re sailing. In Seattle for the
Frostbite Series, you’ll start off with a cold, light drainage easterly coming
down from the Cascades which will begin to die about noon as the northerly
works its way down the Sound. This northerly will start off light but may build
to 10-15 knots by mid-afternoon.
With Victoria, this will be
challenging especially in the morning as the breeze coming down the Fraser
River Valley will be fairly strong, bringing 15-25 knots of northeasterly to
the race area. This will begin to ease by about mid-afternoon as a northwesterly
breeze in the Strait of Georgia displaces the northeasterly. This will bring a
northerly of about 10 knots to the race area.
All in all, it looks like
some great sailing this weekend. Just be safe, wear your life jacket, and have
a great time.
Plenty of breeze headed your way this afternoon, this evening and
into Saturday morning especially if you live on the coast, Vancouver Island,
eastern end of the Strait of JdF, and Haida Gwaii. The central Sound will get
some wind like maybe 25 knots from the south-southeast early tomorrow morning
before easing off. The Doppler Radar at Langley Hill on the coast is already
picking up the start of this activity off the north coast of Oregon.
Enhanced Radar Image, Langley Hill.
Environment Canada has already issued a Hurricane Force Wind
Warning for the Northern part of Vancouver Island for winds of 70-75 knots near
headlands. They are also forecasting waves of 30-40 feet, YIKES.
The Surface Analysis for today shows this low (988MB) with
attached frontal system running into a weak ridge of high pressure that extends
from southern Washington to about mid California. The Surface Forecast Chart
for tomorrow morning shows that this low has now intensified to 973MB, is now
quite round with a very tightly packed isobar structure and the warning box: Hurcn
Force. This chart also shows that this rapidly moving front is now over the
Cascades headed in a northeasterly direction and pushing that weak ridge of
high-pressure off to the south. This will open the door for more storm activity
this coming week.
00 Hour 500MB Forecast January 18
48 Hour 500MB Forecast January 18
Surface Analysis January 18
Surface Forecast January 19
Surface Forecast January 20
Surface Forecast January 21
Surface Foreast January 22
The Surface Forecast Chart for 20 Jan shows a plethora (11 to be
exact) of low-pressure systems strewn across the Pacific, including a 959MB
whopper in the mid-Pacific which is moving our way directed by the jet stream,
see the 500MB charts.
The 21 Jan chart does offer us some relief as the 959MB Low is
now forecast to stall and weaken in the mid-Pacific as a ridge of high-pressure
rebuilds along the coast giving us light air and some very nice mid-winter
conditions.
Current Satellite image, Ocean Prediction Center.
By the 22nd of January the high off of San Francisco has now built to 1034MB and is now linked to a 1038MB high over northern Nevada. This will continue to help direct storm activity to the north of the Pacific Northwest however winter is a long way from over.
The Big Seattle Boat Show starts on the 25th of January. I’ll be working in the NMTA Information Booth Friday and Saturday both weekends so stop by and say hello if you’re at the show.
Today’s surface analysis shows a very interesting and complex series of features. The short story is that except for the coast for today and into tomorrow, the weather will be unseasonably pleasant for this time of the year. A perfect time to take the boat out and go to any number of secluded and relatively unoccupied anchorages. It will still be on the cool side but what else would you expect?
Today’s satellite picture
The overall pattern shows that the Pacific Northwest is still somewhat
protected by a very nice ridge of high-pressure (1028mb) on the other side of
the Cascades. The other feature is the 500mb chart which has the jet stream
still coming almost straight across the Pacific until it wraps around an upper
level low off the Southern California coast and is directed due north on the
other side of the Sierra Nevada and Cascade Ranges. This the reason why we will
have no storms headed our way at least until mid next week. Check today’s sat
pic and then compare tomorrow to see where that well-defined frontal system is
headed.
Click any image to enlarge.
500MB Forecast January 11
Surface analysis January 11
Surface forecast January 12
500MB Forecast January 13
Surface Forcast January 13
500MB January 15
Surface forecast January 15
It does get more interesting on the 48-hour surface forecast
chart where we find the deepest low so far this winter (956mb) just off the
Aleutian Islands. It is still being directed almost due north while the very
weakened tail of the attached frontal system may drag over the Pacific NW later
in the week. It will almost certainly be significantly degraded as it
encounters our coastal buffer zone. It
is also interesting to note that our protective ridge of high-pressure will
strengthen slightly. This will bring a weak offshore flow over the area giving
us some patchy morning fog In some of the usual areas with easterly flow
through the passes but generally clear conditions. The weak low-pressure
system(994mb) off the California coast will drift slowly to the southeast and
may bring more rain into Southern California. By later in the week this low
catch the northern bound drift of the jet stream and then dissipate off of
Northern California. Just behind this low is another rapidly intensifying low-
pressure system (998mb) which will probably suffer the same fate.
As we transition to this offshore flow it was interesting to note
this morning the wind pattern in the eastern end of the Strait of Juan de Fuca.
28-knots of southeasterly at Smith Island with 20-knots of northerly at Race
Rocks. Just a friendly reminder to always check the conditions on your VHF
before you head out and log the pressure readings from around the Pacific NW so
you can see if something else may be coming in.
Enjoy the weekend and get ready for the Big Seattle Boat Show
starting on Jan 25th, it is going to be a great one.
It’s raining now because of a passing warm front and there is more on the way, just look at the Doppler and Saturday pix. More importantly, it will be a bit breezy tomorrow as a cold front goes over our area tomorrow afternoon. As far as rainfall goes for the month we are about .25” above our average but we are still about 2.18” behind for the year.
We are just really lucky we don’t live on the East Coast.
For example, take Wilmington, NC where as of today they are at 101.27” for the
year. The annual average for a year is 57.61”. The old record for the wettest year
was 83.65” set in 1877. Note also that the total rainfall for the 17 wettest
days was 58.96” So no whining about how much rain we get out here.
Click any image to enlarge.
December 28 500MB
December 28 Surface Analysis
December 29 Surface Forecast
December 30 Surface Forecast
December 31 500MB
December 31 Surface Forecast
January 1 500MB
January 1 Surface Forecast
Today’s chart and sat pic show a relatively strong(1033MB) high-pressure system off the coast of San Francisco. This feature combined with the jet stream is doing a pretty good job of deflecting the worst of the storms into SE Alaska and northern BC. These lows still have trailing frontal systems, one of which will drag over us tomorrow afternoon bringing strong (30-35 knot) southerly breezes to the coast and the Salish Sea. Tomorrow morning might be a good time to go check those mooring lines and fenders.
Once again the 48-hour chart
shows an impressive series of low-pressure systems extending from a 945MB low
in the Gulf of Alaska to a 977MB in the central Pacific with more low-pressure
systems set to form. Luckily, that high-pressure system mentioned above along
with the jet stream will keep us taking a direct hit. The bad news is that the
jet stream will bring these low-pressure systems back into the upper mid-West
as snowmakers and more rain to the southeastern US.
At least for New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day, it looks like it won’t be raining. Plenty of time to go out and do a little bit of maintenance on the boat.
Happy New Year!
-Bruce and the entire team (Ed note: That’s Kurt, his dogs and all those who’ve contributed this year) at Sailish.com.
Don’t be lulled into complacency by the relative calm we’re currently experiencing in the Seattle area, the wind is coming. It just looks like our coastal buffer zone has once again done its job by slowing the approach of this system and deflecting it into BC. As you can see from the plots of wind speed and barometric pressure at Smith Island, West Point, and Destruction Island, the pressure is still dropping. The other interesting feature of these graphs is the slope of the barometric pressure line which shows how much faster the pressure is dropping up at Smith Island and how much faster the wind speed is increasing. This would tell us that, as we said yesterday, conditions will be more severe along the coast (52 knots at Destruction Island now), in the eastern end of the Straits and the northern end ofAdmiralty Inlet than in the central and south Sound.
Click any image to enlarge.
Right now, it appears the front will pass the coast about mid-afternoon bringing stronger breezes into the central and south Sound with it. This will persist through the early evening before the post-frontal conditions kick in and the pressure gradient begins to ease over the area. The next system will start to show up in the offshore waters early Saturday morning and then in the eastern end of the Straits by midday Saturday. Conditions in the central and south Sound won’t be bad on Saturday or Sunday however you should always check on conditions because there could be pockets of 20-25 knots of southerly.
Click any image to enlarge.
West Point 0900 Hours - Wind speed-Air Pressure
SMI Readings December 14 Wind speed-Air Pressure
Destruction Island Graph Wind speed-Air Pressure
The 48 hour surface forecast still shows what the upcoming week will be light with a succession of low-pressure systems lining up offshore. While they may be deflected to the north of us, the fronts will still drag over our area bringing wind and more rain. Not such good news for the skiers because this next system will drive the freezing level up to over 5500 feet, melting snow and increasing the possibility of some minor flooding in the lowlands.
National Weather Service map of storm and flood watches and warnings. Click to enlarge.
As I said last Friday, it’s starting to get interesting which is why we wanted to give you a heads-up about tomorrow, especially the afternoon. This will be the most wind we’ve seen so far this fall/winter so if you haven’t gotten those winter mooring lines out or taken that roller furling jib off the headstay, today would be a really good time to get this done.
The surface chart for today doesn’t show much but the forecast chart for tomorrow shows a rapidly intensifying low-pressure system coming ashore and into the Sound tomorrow afternoon. The coastal waters could see 40+ knots of southerly with higher gusts and seas in the 20’-24’ range. The eastern end of the Straits and Admiralty Inlet will see 25-35 knots of southeasterly starting early tomorrow morning and continuing through the day. By mid-morning, the south and central Sound will see 25-35 knots of southeasterly to southerly breeze with gusts near 50 knots. The stronger breeze will be to the north of Seattle. This will continue and when the front passes tomorrow afternoon, the breeze may drop a bit and clock to the southwest however as the post-frontal flow establishes itself, it will build back into the 25-35 knot range before it starts to ease in the early to mid-evening tomorrow night.
Click any image to enlarge.
December 13 500MB
December 13 Surface Forecast
December 14 Surface Forecast
December 15 500MB
December 15 Surface Forecast
The other interesting feature is the tides for this storm with the high tide in Seattle coming at 1012 and being at a height of 11.72’.The next low will be at 1705 but will only go down to 5.65’ which means for the highest winds, your mast will still be well above the breakwater height at both Elliott Bay and Shilshole.
I’ve also included the surface chart for 15 Dec because it shows a very impressive 955MB low headed towards us and yes, it does say hurricane force winds. The good news is that it will probably create more rain for us on the 17th but most of the wind impact will be felt in the coastal waters of northern BC and SE Alaska.
The weather is definitely getting more interesting the closer we get to the end of the year, the shortest day of the year and the first day of winter. Naturally, we’ll have a celebration of the Winter Solstice on the 21st at 1423 hrs because the days will start getting longer from that point on.
Satelletie image
The weather charts for today offer a very interesting picture of what’s to come for the weekend. While today’s analysis shows a very impressive low-pressure system off our coast with a long cold front attached, it won’t have much effect on the central or south Sound. There are two reasons for this: the first is that persistent high-pressure system (1036MB) just east of the Cascades and the second is our coastal buffer zone which will once again have a deleterious effect on any frontal system as it hits the coast. That high-pressure system is the one that has been responsible for bringing us the coldest temperatures we have seen so far this Fall. Since it is on the other side of the mountains it creates an offshore flow that brings cold air from the interior of BC and forces it through the mountain passes into the Puget Sound area. This is going to slowly change.
If you look at the surface forecast chart for tomorrow morning you can see that front from today has already been significantly degraded and our guardian high-pressure system has been weakened to 1032MB and pushed to the southeast. This will open the door for that next frontal system to come ashore late Saturday and into Sunday morning. You will also notice that these low-pressure systems instead of being sent in a northerly path are now on a more northeasterly path. Eventually, this will become more east-northeasterly as the week goes on, allowing more moisture into our area.
Click any image to enlarge.
December 7 500MB
December 7 Surface Analysis
December 8 Surface Forecast
December 9 500MB
December 9 Surface Forecast
December 10 Surface Forecast
December 11 Surface Forecast
What effect will this have on the breeze for this weekend? The strongest breeze today(20-30 knots)will be the pre-frontal south-easterlies in the coastal waters and the eastern and western parts of the Strait of JdF. There will be a brief respite for those areas on Saturday morning and into mid-afternoon at which point the winds in advance of the next front will once again pick up in those same areas. The winds in the central and south Soundwill be 10-15 knots from the southeast on Saturday morning becoming lighter as the day goes on.
After midnight on Saturday, the pre-frontal breeze will pick up significantly along the north coast and the eastern part of the Straits as in 25-35 knots of southeasterly. This will ease as the front passes through late Sunday afternoon. The central Sound will see 10-15 knots of southeasterly easing around mid-afternoon while the south Sound will see generally lighter conditions all day.
The next front which will bring more lowland rain and mountain snow will start to show up on Tuesday.
While tomorrow’s race won’t be quite as cold as some of the past Winter Vashon races, it will still be fairly cool out there so dress accordingly and don’t skimp on the warm beverages. The good news is that when the breeze does come up you should be on the downwind leg to the finish.
The surface chart for today shows a low-pressure system off our coast heading off to the southeast. This will make the coast sometime this evening after which an offshore flow will develop over the central and western Strait of JdF. Over the eastern end of the Strait and the rest of the Salish Sea, this will become a northerly flow with the area in the central part of Admiralty Inlet seeing the strongest northerly maybe in the 15-20 knot range. It will take a while for this to fill down the Sound and into the race area.
Click any image to enlarge.
November 30 500MB
November 30 Surface Analysis
December 1 Surface Forecast
December 2 Surface Forecast
December 3 500MB
December 3 Surface Forecast
December 4 Surface Forecast
Typically this pattern will result in a light (4-8 knot) northerly in Colvos. Following the nice southerly we’ve got today, this will keep the ebb going in Colvos for tomorrow which will help get you up to the top mark. There will be rivers of stronger current in Colvos and those will tend to be in the center of Colvos Passage. You will really want to watch your COG and SOG as well as the other boats in order to find the axis of the current. Since it is a reverse start there will also be rewards for those who can keep their air clear and not fall into any of the dead zones on either shore.
Hopefully the northerly will fill to the north end of Vashon by around noon. This should be in the 10-12 knot range and I do mean northerly, not northwesterly so you’ll probably set up to sail the port gybe to Pt Robinson. This will also coincide with the start of the ebb so if you run into anti-water gybe back to the west, just don’t sail too close to Vashon and gybe back when you can make Pt Robinson.
From Robinson south to the finish you will want to stay off the Vashon shore because it will be light in there so even if you have to sail in some ebb, it’s better to stay out in the breeze. Unlike the spring and summer Vashon races, the wind you have at Pt Robinson will probably hold all the way to the finish.
