We are well ahead for rain this month with 7.5” in the gauge already which is just about the total for the entire month, and there’s more coming, just not this weekend.
As you can see from the Sat Pic, there is already clearing in the Straits and high pressure is starting to build over the entire Pacific Northwest. So while it should be a beautiful weekend, there won’t be much wind over the inland waters. The Gig Harbor LeMans racers had better be finished by 1300 hours since the wind is going to go from light to mostly non-existent. There will also be patches of light and variable over most of the Salish Sea.
November 19 500MB
November 19 Surface Analysis
November 20 Surface Forecast
November 21 500MB
November 21 Surface Forecast
November 22 Surface Forecast
November 23 500 MB
23 November Surface Forecast
Looking at the surface charts you will see a fairly large high-pressure system (1031MB) off the central Oregon coast today and then a lobe of that system will develop over the Pacific Northwest tomorrow resulting in no pressure gradient and therefore little to no wind.
The 24-hour surface forecast chart shows the high strengthening to 1033MB and this will help to send the next system to the north of us. The interesting feature on this chart is the surface low south of Kodiak (981MB) which will deepen to 978 MB as it crosses the Gulf of Alaska and approaches the northern part of the SE Alaskan coast. Not only is there a fair amount of wind with this system (45-55 knots) note the heavy fog! How much fun can you have in high winds, big seas, and thick fog, I don’t care how big the ship is that you’re on.
Then we go out to the 48-hr surface forecast chart which is even more interesting as it shows a developing low-pressure system (976MB) expected to deepen to 952MB over the next 24 hours, a real-world example of bombogenesis! This chart also shows a developing low-pressure system (1007MB) off our coast which will bring a series of cold fronts into the West Coast early next week. More rain and mountain snow for the Cascades and Sierra Nevadas as far south as LA. The jet stream will come ashore north of us by Sunday but then drop to the south of San Francisco by the 23rd of Nov. This will also bring cooler temps into the Pacific NW.
There are some signs that boating may be returning to normal with 114 entries for this weekend’s Round-The County Race. I think that this would make the RTC the most popular race this year. Well done OIYC, but then again they always do a great job with this event.
Then there’s the weather and the tides as there always is up in the Islands. Weather has been a big topic this week with big breeze, big rain, lots of snow in the passes, and even a tornado warning for the Kitsap Peninsula. Now as you can see from the Doppler Radar, today’s sat pic and surface weather analysis, it’s all changing. The big breeze is easing until at least Saturday afternoon and into Sunday morning when another frontal system will roll over the area. There is clearing to the west and the Doppler is just showing scattered rain showers. So unless you live on a steep slope, it’s all good!
November 12 500MB
November 12 Surface Analysis
November 13 Surface Forecast
November 14 500MB
November 14 Surface Forecast
November 15 Surface Forecast
November 16 500MB
November 16 Surface Forecast
Tides are always interesting for the Race and with light air forecast for tomorrow luckily they won’t be much of an issue. The real problem will be Sunday in Rosario Strait with slack at 1500 and the ebb starting, coinciding with the breeze easing off.
Tidal Currents
Lawrence Point Orcas Island Saturday 13 Nov
0612 Slack
1006 Max Flood 2.3 knts
1518 Slack
1824 Max Ebb .97 knts
Turn Point Boundary Pass Sunday 14 Nov
0724 Slack
1130 Max Flood 2.3 knts
1454 Slack
Rosario Strait Sunday 14 Nov
0824 Slack
1130 Max Flood 1.75 knts
1506 Slack
1854 Max Ebb 2.33 knts
The big picture for the weather shows the front moving through today with that persistent but weak high-pressure system off the coast of California, with a lobe extending up into eastern Washington. This high will become more dominant tomorrow with the pressure gradient easing over the racecourse through the day.
Saturday Summary
0900 Start to Lawrence Point S-SE 8-10 knot
1200 Lawrence Pt to Patos S-SE 5-8 knots
1400 Patos to Turn Point SE 5-8 knots with 6-12 knots near Turn Point
1600 Turn Point to Finish SE 8-15 knots
1800 Turn Point to Finish SE 15-25 knots
Overnight in Roche Harbor, it will be breezy and will hold into the Sunday morning start.
Sunday Summary
0900 Start to False Bay S 25-30 knots
1100 Flase Bay to Davidson Rk S 20-30 knots
1300 Iceberg Pt to Davidson S 10 knots at Iceberg becoming 10-20 near Davidson
1500 Iceberg to Davidson S 5-10 knots becoming 5 at Davidson, 10-12 at Lydia Shoal
1700 Iceberg to Lydia S 0-5 knots.
By Sunday morning the front will be moving rapidly off to the NE and dragging the breeze with it. The models are not in agreement about how fast this will happen. The zonal flow of the jet stream will keep this pattern coming well into next week.
For Saturday I have Zvi around the course and finishing at around 1500 hrs, the J-111 Raku finishing at 1609, The Beneteau 36.7 finishing at 1703, the J-35 at 1709, the J-105’s in at 1713, and the J-30’s in around 1752hrs.
For those boats thinking about heading South immediately after the race you’ll be able to get across the Straits in very mild conditions however once you enter Admiralty, the breeze will pick up and you’ll be powering into 20-25 knots from the due south.
Have a great race, prepare accordingly, and be safe. Keep your AIS on so I can at least enjoy the race from the Sailish.com Weather Center.
One of the eye opening things about being a broker with Swiftsure Yachts is getting to know these aluminum Allures yachts built in France. Allures has figured out how to make aluminum a really good option to fiberglass. They’re tough, shapely and can be every bit as nicely finished as a fiberglass boat. And they’re centerboarders! This 51.9’s vinyl wrap even gives it a colorful topsides. See for yourself in this Yachting World review.
An inch of rain here, an inch of rain there, it all adds up proving once again that November is the wettest month of the year and while it’s only the 5th of November we are already 2.33” of rain ahead for the month. Plus there is just a steady line of fronts headed our way bringing wind and more rain.
November 5 500 MB
November 5 Surface Forecast
November 6 Surface Forecast
November 7 500 MB
November 7 Surface Forecast
November 8 Surface Forecast
Today’s surface analysis chart and sat pic show the front that went through earlier today along with nine other areas of low pressure. For the most part, they seem to follow the pattern we discussed last week with the low-pressure systems weakening and dissipating as they hit the coast. A weak ridge of high pressure builds behind the front and that tends to drive the next system to the NW, N, or NE. It’s only temporary as the zonal flow of the jet stream will continue to supply us with more systems bringing cooler temperatures, more rain, and more wind through much of next week. Also, note the 48-hour surface forecast chart which shows a 12 on the Roser Low Index Scale which is pretty high for this early in the year. It definitely is November.
It will be a great weekend for sailing especially in the Central Sound where both days should have consistent southerlies of 15-25 knots with some higher gusts, especially on Saturday afternoon.
If you’re not going out sailing it might just be a good idea to head on down to the marina and check those mooring lines and fenders not just on your boat but maybe your neighbors as well.
Next week we’ll have a delivery forecast on Wednesday for those heading up to Round the County and a Race Forecast on Friday. Could be a great one.
This is a particularly fun press release to run. My friends (and sponsor) at West Coast Sailing now has a parent company, plus siblings! The most important takeaway here is that several different high quality brands will be under the same leadership and that there will be continuity in their respective leaderships. George Yioulos has already established a formula of building up fleets from the grass roots, and serving those sailors as they move through them. From The Starting Line website: “The goal is always the same, and very simple. Promote the sport of sailing — not by selling more stuff and being a big company. But by helping anyone realize — yes, you too, you, can be on the water with us. You don’t need to buy anything from us, but we’re here for you — and hope you give sailing a try.“There’s a lot more to this move, I’m sure, and I’ll get to talk to George directly about it in the coming days. -KH
Starting Line Sailing, Inc. Acquires Zim Sailing and Dwyer Mast & Rigging
Zim Sailing - the Bristol, Rhode Island-based marine equipment manufacturer, has been acquired by Starting Line Sailing, Inc. The purchase transaction also includes Dwyer Mast and Rigging, the long time aluminum spar manufacturer. As part of this acquisition, Zim Sailing and Dwyer Mast and Rigging will join West Coast Sailing as subsidiaries of Starting Line Sailing, a newly formed holding company led by CEO George Yioulos.
The sailing industry continues to evolve, and Starting Line Sailing was formed to play a key role in that evolution. The goal is simple - to grow the sport by making it more accessible for everyone. Backed by decades of industry experience, an ownership group of passionate sailors aims to fulfill this vision by building on the strengths of each business, investing in and providing career pathways, and providing greater support to the sailing community. Over the next several years, sailors can expect faster and more efficient systems that make it easier to find the parts and support you need, expanded access to new products and services, and the creation of better opportunities to work in the industry. Behind this multi-year roadmap is a commitment to helping more people discover their own passion for sailing.
Whether you are a new sailor or long time racer, coach or parent, club program or class association manager, the collective team of 40+ staff across West Coast Sailing, Zim Sailing, and Dwyer Mast and Rigging is here to help you make the most of your time on the water.
Zim Sailing, founded by Steve Perry in 2008, provides one-design sailboats, parts, accessories, and services to the North American market. They manufacture popular dinghies such as the Club 420, Flying Junior, and Optimist, and engage in grassroots youth development of yacht club junior sailing programs, community sailing programs, and high school and collegiate sailing programs. Zim Sailing can be found at regattas around the country, providing support with charter boats and onsite sales and service. Dwyer Aluminum Masts, was founded in 1963 to more fully integrate the manufacturing of spars, rigging, and hardware with sailboat production. The two companies share production facilities in Bristol, Rhode Island.
West Coast Sailing, founded in 2005 in Portland, Oregon by George Yioulos, is one of North America’s leading marine retailers, focusing on the dinghy racing and small keelboat market with an emphasis on e-commerce fulfillment and providing industry leading customer service. Longtime Zim dealers, they also distribute for trusted brands such as RS, Hobie, Gill, Rooster, Dynamic Dollies, Harken, Ronstan, Ovington, Zhik, Marlow, and more. In the past year they launched a full service rig shop to offer one design and custom rigging and have a long history of community support and sponsorship.
Day to day operations at all the companies will continue independently and without interruption following this acquisition. Steve Perry will stay as President of Zim Sailing and Dwyer Mast and Rigging. Chris Brown will continue his role as President of West Coast Sailing. All staff members carry on in their existing roles. Existing dealer, vendor, and class association relationships continue unchanged. Zim Sailing, West Coast Sailing and Dwyer Mast & Rigging are open for business and committed to providing high quality products and outstanding service for you, your team, your club, or your organization.
Starting Line Sailing is excited to establish this portfolio of brands in a shared commitment to growing the sport and making it more accessible for everyone. The future of the sport is bright!
True, the first big storm of the fall was a little early this year but not out of the ordinary, just remember the Oct 12th Storm a few decades back. Plus, just like that, we are suddenly ahead on rain for the year, having gone from .75” behind last weekend, we are now almost 1.0” ahead as of today and we still need more. Especially in Eastern Washington. All in all, it is acting very much like another La Niña winter.
October 29 500MB
October 29 Surface Analysis
October 30 Surface Forecast
October 31 500MB
October 31 Surface Forecast
November 2 500MB
November 1 Surface Forecast
November 2 Surface Forecast
The really good news is that it is going to be a very nice weekend in the Pacific NW with high pressure building over the area as the front is sliding off to the south. Today’s surface analysis chart and sat pic confirm that clear skies are coming. Following the typical pattern for the Pac NW, the best day for wind will be the first day that high rebuilds over the area and that will be late today and through Saturday. The interesting part is that it’s not because the high is building offshore as we might find in the spring and summer. Instead, we will have a building high-pressure system inland over lower BC. This will have the effect of bringing the breeze in from the N-NE and bringing the temps down, not to freezing but definitely cooler. This building high (1036MB) will also act as a block for the next series of storms coming across the North Pacific.
October 29
As you can see from today’s surface chart there is a fairly impressive low aimed right at us and strengthening from 975MB to 968MB. Then on the 30 Oct Chart as it it hits the high it takes a big lefty toward Kodiak. The Oct 31 surface chart shows another developing low-pressure system off of Oregon with yet another strong low-pressure system (982MB) in mid-Pacific tracking towards the West Coast. The other interesting feature to track is the jet stream with primarily zonal flow today becoming meridional by Sunday and then returning to zonal by the 2nd of November. The upper-level forecast chart for the 2nd of November also shows a flow that begins to look like yet another Pineapple Express if there’s any moisture associated with that low and its attached frontal system.
Plenty of racing in the Central Sound this weekend and Saturday will be the day with plenty of breeze, like 15-22 knots out of the N-NE. As always, tidal currents will make life interesting, especially in the afternoon.
Tidal Current at West Point.
30 Oct
0906 Max Flood .83knots
1300 Slack
1436 Max Ebb .34 knots
1806 Slack
31 Oct
1006 Max Flood .75 knots
1342 Slack
1518 Max Ebb .35 knots
1842 Slack
Since the flood tide will be with the wind, expect the flood to last a bit longer and the ebb to start a bit later. Your best indicator of the change will be that the sea state will change from relatively smooth to shorter and choppier conditions.
Sunday the breeze will remain from the N-NE however it will be in the 5-12 knot range and should hold through the day. While the temps may be cool at least there will be no rain.
Enjoy the weekend.
Ed. Note: Good luck to all you race-your-housers. Looks like some good breeze for it! -KH
The scary situation that developed Fri-Mon with the Zim Kingston losing approximately 40 containers overboard (reportedly two with hazardous waste), then on fire just outside Victoria, is apparently quiet for now with the fire having been extinguished.
#CCGLive - A Coast Guard overflight of the #ZimKingston at 11:30 today shows smoldering but no visible flames in the containers. However, firefighters may find some active fire in the containers once they are able to board the ship. pic.twitter.com/PHjfjf6Fg7
Many questions remain; when and where will the containers be retrieved? Where will the ship dock? And, importantly, is the fire well and truly out altogether. Joseph Conrad’s Youth comes to mind. Regardless, congratulations for the personnel who were able to contain the fire and the Canadian Coast Guard.
The Buchan legacy extends. Carl won the International Masters regatta, put on by the San Diego Yacht Club this past weekend. The picture of the happy crew includes some very familiar faces, including Carol Buchan. Carl was just inducted into the Sailing Hall of Fame, joining his father Bill. That those two exemplify sailing at its best is no news to us, but it’s sure nice the folks on other other coast recognize it!
This post tells the story of the regatta. Carl won it with a race to spare, then handed his boat over to a competitor with equipment issues on another boat and sat out the last race. Yes, sailing at its best.
The Zim Kingston, the same ship that lost approximately 40 containers off the entrance to the Strait of Juan de Fuca on Friday, is now burning at anchor off Victoria, BC. Ten of the crew have been evacuated while the captain and a handful of other crew remained on board.
This is a serious situation as the ship may sink, and any floating or partially submerged containers pose a threat to navigation. Details are still emerging, and we’re piecing this together with incomplete information. It’s advised to stay away from the burning ship and be on the lookout for containers. Wind is now over 30 knots at Race Rocks according to the Canadian Weather Service.
Today’s surface analysis chart and sat pic’s don’t show what’s headed our way Sunday and into Monday. We’ve had a week of what should be considered normal weather for this time of the year. What is interesting is that we’ve already had two episodes of bombogenesis, which occurs when a low-pressure system intensifies by dropping 24MB in 24 hours. Plus, we have another one developing and it doesn’t show until the 48hr surface forecast chart when we will have 944MB just off the coast. To get a feel for just how strong this system is, note the 48hr 500MB chart which clearly shows the intrusion of this system into the upper atmosphere. This is the strongest system we’ve had this year and probably an indication of what’s to come.
October 22 Surface Analysis
October 23 Surface Forecast
October 24 500 MB
October 24 Surface Forecast
October 25 Surface Forecast
October 26 500 MB
October 26 Surface Forecast
How much it will affect you will, as always, depend on where you are. The coast will take the brunt of this system because as it approaches the coast it will veer to the north, weaken and head into SE Alaska, which has already this year had some wild weather. Almost all waters will see 20-25 knots at some time. Saturday will have a post-frontal westerly in the Strait of JdF with a persistent SE breeze in the eastern Strait and the San Juan Islands. The breeze will ease about mid-afternoon Saturday as the big system approaches the coast. By dawn Sunday, the pre-frontal SE breeze will be about 15-20 over the interior water with stronger breeze along the coast. Noon Sunday will have 30-35 knots in the Central Straits, 15-25 in the Central Sound and Admiralty Inlet. This will hold until early Sunday evening with possibly higher gusts.
October 22 Satellite Pic
October 22 NorPac Satellite Pic
By Monday this storm will be weakening note the 25 Oct surface forecast chart, pressure has risen from 944MB to 960MB and will continue to do so. It is also interesting to note that the 500Mb chart shows that zonal flow has returned to the North Pacific and it is flying which will continue to bring more weather systems to the West Coast, consistent with the La Niña pattern we discussed two weeks ago. In other words, wetter and cooler than normal weather.
If you’re heading out on the water this weekend be sure to monitor conditions closely as it could change very quickly. Be safe out there.
Ed. Note. - Bombogenesis? Really, Bruce? Sounds like a good name for a boat. Oh yeah, and good luck to all those in SYC’s Grand Prix regatta. -KH
