We have gale warnings in the Straits right now and this will continue through tomorrow. Currently, we have 31 knots at Sheringham, 45 at Race Rocks, 20 at Hein Bank, 24 at Smith island and 26 at Port Townsend. With the GFS Model, Racers can expect 15-25 for the start at 0500 hours. This will ease as the sun comes up with the breeze from Pt. Wilson to Dungeness Spit dropping into 5-10 knot range. Think of a line from the tip of Dungeness Spit to Partridge Point. North of that line 15-20 knots of westerly, south of that line 5-10 knots of westerly at around 0700 hours. This will gradually change as the westerly fills back in so by 0900 expect 15-20 knots across the course. This will hold until the early afternoon when the next blast of westerly comes down the Straits bringing 15-25 knots of westerly. By mid-afternoon, the breeze will crank up into the 30-35 knot range in the vicinity of Race Rocks and extending as far east as Hein Bank. This will start to ease slightly after midnight dropping to about 15-knots right around dawn on Tuesday.
3 Jun 0500 MM5 
3 Jun 0700 MM5 
3 Jun 1400 MM5 
3 Jun 1700 MM5 
2 Jun 1900 Hrs Strts of JdF
The other model I ran is the NAM which shows less wind than above and running the numbers for the Melges 32, it shows a max wind speed of 15.5 knots just west of Hein Bank. In these conditions, they should complete the course in just over four hours sailing on port tack the entire way across the Straits.
This scenario is also complicated by the fact that you’ll be starting in the big ebb of the day, (2.95 knots) and with wind against the tide, this will be like boating in a Waring Blender. Big steep breaking seas with a very short wavelength. The sailors with experience will get through this as long as they’ve got the right sails and they know how to sail in these conditions. The rowboats and SUPS will be in for a tough slog.
Regardless of which model we look at, there will be wind, so be safe and be very prepared!
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)