Youth Sailing

2019-2020 NWISA Pre-Season Prognostications

School is in session, which means it’s time to talk High School Sailing. I’m once again putting out my pre-season predictions ahead of the first NWISA regattas later in September. Olympia proved Last Year’s Pre-Season Rankings mostly correct when they went out and absolutely crushed it (as predicted). Unranked Sehome snuck in and disrupted things a bit after they took 2nd place at Fleet Race Districts, but other than that the rankings held up pretty well. I’m glad Sehome proved me wrong and I hope some other unranked teams do the same this season.

In order to better quantify my predictions, I’ve developed a high-point scoring system with point values assigned to NWISA championships and qualifiers.  The NWISA Fleet Race and Team Race Championships are most heavily weighted (worth 5 points each), while the smaller Fall Championships/Qualifiers (Girls, Keelboat, and Singlehands) are each worth 3 points. Runners up receive the remaining points. Here is how last year’s predictions compared with end of season results using this formula.

Heading into the Fall Season the NWISA conference is looking more competitive than ever before. A lot of talent that has been percolating for years is finally maturing. Orcas was really the only team that graduated most of its varsity squad. I expect the top of A-Fleet to look very similar to last year, with most of the same players returning- just faster and more experienced. If anything I think the depth of the conference will make it more difficult to predict the outcomes this year, and there’s not one super dominant team like we had last year. Here’s my best guess…

#1 Gig Harbor High School (Gig Harbor, WA)

GHHS will have a target on their back all season. The Tides have arguably the best one-two punch in the conference with skippers Axel Stordahl (‘20) and Dayne Hall (‘22). This is a team which is 80% intact from last year’s Cinderella run. They came tantalizingly close to qualifying for both spring national championships last year, and that memory is going to keep them hungry all year. Graduated is varsity crew Ripley Morris and utility player Peter Ryalls who was injured for most of the spring season. Both were part of the winning keelboat team last fall. However, Axel and Dayne will still have plenty of options in the front of their boat and a solid supporting cast when they get in a keelboat. Carlos Rivas is a very key and versatile piece of the puzzle this year. He’s turning into one of the best crews in the district, but he is also capable of grabbing the tiller when needed, like he did last year during Team Race Champs.

Prognostications: Look for strong performances in Keelboat Quals and Fleet Race Championships. They could win the Team Racing Champs too, but they are going to have to rely on a lot of 1,2, X combos to pull it off. It wouldn’t be the first time a team has won it like that.

#2 Bainbridge High School (Bainbridge Island, WA)

It’s a toss up for 2nd place between Bainbridge and Sehome, but if you put emphasis on the spring championships, then Bainbridge gets the nod. The Spartans are heading into this season with the most talent they’ve had in several years. These sailors aren’t new additions, rather they’re all returners who are now upperclassmen primed for a breakout year. Skippers Max Doane, Zach Cooper, and Dane Petrakis are as good a trio as you’ll find in NWISA. It’s unclear which two will be in the varsity spot for fleet racing, but they’ll be a real force when it comes to team racing. Barrett Lhamon and Lindsay Campbell are versatile players who can both transition easily between skipper and crew roles. Both crewed in the spring championships last year, but Lindsay will likely skipper some Fall regattas, including Girl’s Champs. Coach Susan Kaseler has been saying “one more year” for several years now. If she’s waiting on another NWISA Team Racing Championship to retire, then this may be her year. It’s her favorite event and she really pushes team racing hard in the spring.

Prognostications: I would not be at all surprised if Max Doane wins Singlehands in the full rig, although if Eric Anderson (Ballard) elects to sail the full rig it’ll be a real battle between those two. Team Racing Championships are theirs to lose, but the Spartans could certainly podium at Fleet Race Championships too.

#3 Sehome High School (Bellingham, WA)

This is a team full of young talent that peaked at just the right time last year. They’ve been on my radar for awhile, and have become scary-good very quickly. Leading the charge is a boatload of female talent. Emma Powell and Natalie Serbousek are going into their junior years and will likely be sailing together again. Sammy Farkas is currently leading the NWYRC Laser Radial standings and has already sailed several national and international championships. Now a freshman, Sammy will join her friends Emma and Natalie in the varsity role (as an 8th grader last year Sammy could only sail JV regattas). Add any number of talented female crews, like Natalie Werner or Casey Malone, to the mix and you’ll have an all female team ready to make boys cry all season. This may be the last year to beat Sehome before they reach true dynasty status. You’ve been warned.

Prognostications: Sammy is the favorite to win Singlehanded Quals in the Laser Radial. The team is a shoe-in for the Girl’s Champs, and will be a real force at fleet racing districts again next year. However, their team racing game probably needs another year or two to really develop.

#4 Olympia High School (Olympia, WA)

The Bears absolutely dominated last year. A team goal was to represent NWISA at every national championship/invitational and they almost did it. Varsity A-Fleet skipper Owen Timms was a big reason for that success, however he has since graduated and is now off to sail with at George Washington Univ. Some might expect Oly’s star to fall after the loss of such a key member, plus varsity crews Evan Krug and Kevin Hicks, but coach Sarah Hanavan has a crop of talent ready to continue the OHS legacy. Skipper Sam Bonauto and crew Peter Kelleher who sailed opposite of Owen last year have established themselves as a real force, a pair capable of placing top-5 in any given NWISA fleet. Skippers Erin Pamplin and Ella Hubbard will likely be working to earn the other varsity skipper spot. When they put three boats on the water, they’ll be more than able to hold their own in team racing.

Prognostications: Oly’s strongest events are most likely Girl’s Champs, which they are hosting (home field advantage never hurts!), and Team Race Champs.I think they also have a good shot at placing in the Keelboat Quals. It’s an event they’ve won in the past, and they are one of the few teams that actively train for it.

#5 Roosevelt High School (Seattle, WA)

The nucleus of Miles Williams, Abbie Chipps, and Sam Kimmel helped put Roosevelt on the map. They’ve been sailing at Sail Sand Point together for several years, with Miles and Abbie starting in Optis. The team has grown steadily the last few seasons and blossomed into a real contender. Miles is one of the fastest skippers in the conference, and Sam is capable of cracking the top-5 in B fleet. Abbie is one of the top crews in the district and has been honing her skills as a skipper in the Laser this summer, which may be put to use when it comes time for Team Race Champs. The Rough Riders scraped together enough sailors to field a full team racing roster last spring, a first for RHS, but they still lack the roster depth of some of the more established teams.

Prognostications: This team could win Fleet Race Championships if they catch fire. As previously mentioned, roster depth will make it difficult to get on the podium in the other disciplines.

Honorable Mention: Ballard High School (Seattle, WA)

There’s a high probability we’ll see Erik Anderson on the podium at Singlehands and he’ll have a solid B-Fleet opposite him all season. They could make a late season push similar to the run Sehome made last year. I wouldn’t count them out of Fleet Race Champs or Keelboat Quals.

Honorable Mention: Lincoln High School (Portland, OR)

The Cardinals have the deepest roster in the Portland area and have two pretty quick pairs. Depending on who emerges as their third skipper, they could be a threat at Team Race Champs. We may also see senior Casey Pickett do well in Singlehands. This is a group with keelboat experience (Area L Sears winners), so watch out if they elect to do Keelboat Quals this year.

Ed. Note: Sailish loves to post results, photos, insights, and just funny stuff on the high school sailing scene, but we need help to get material. Competitors and organizers – send stuff! Parents, it’s a great way to be engaged and solidify the scene for the future.