For the CYC’s Small Boat Series off of Shilshole, it doesn’t look much better on Saturday when you’ll have light and variable breeze. Sunday, however, looks MUCH better with 15-20 knots of northerly in the morning and then dropping off to 5-10 knots of northerly in the afternoon.
Tides will be more interesting for the Shilshole venue especially on Sunday. And no, that is not a typo on Sunday with ebbs back to back.
0742 Max Ebb .47 knots
1242 Slack
1536 Max Flood .95 knots
1806 Slack
Sunday
0830 Max Ebb .44 knots
1224 Max Ebb .12 knots
1342 Slack
1618 Max Flood .87 knots
The tactics for Saturday and Sunday will be highly dependent on where the start line is set. On Sunday if the RC is closer to the breakwater, in the morning think of Thursday evening racing in the summer. On Sunday afternoon think of morning racing in the summer, in other words, more of a slight northeasterly component.
Have a great weekend
Ed. Note, Thanks Bruce for thinking of us “little guys.” It looks like a solid turnout with a dozen J/24s, 11 Lasers, 11 RS Aeros, 7 Moore 24s, 4 Stars and a few other classes as well. Here’s to a competitive racing, even if it is a bit light!
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
Our very interesting year of weather continues after a spectacularly beautiful week of true Indian Summer conditions. As we know, it simply isn’t going to last however there is really nothing major league bad in the offing. That, however, is the bad news.
As you can see from the charts, we have a cold front that is rapidly approaching the Pacific Northwest and will blow through the area tonight. The baro is dropping and we are already seeing rain off the north coast on the Doppler. The other feature to note is the incredibly strong high-pressure system (1040MB) off the coast. This will drive a strong onshore flow down the Straits after the cold front passes. Unfortunately, this will create a convergence zone over the Race Course area for tomorrow. As is typical for a post-frontal scenario, the isobars will ease over the Upper Sound and lower part of Admiralty Inlet and while it may be cranking in the Straits, 25-30 knots from the West, the westerly won’t get much past the Marrowstone Light. While there will be enough southerly in the Race area to get the race started, it will tend to get lighter from noon on. The key to this race will be to finish early.
Oct 6 Surface Forecast
Oct 7 Surface Forecast
Oct 8 Surface Forecast
Oct 10 Surface Forecast
Running the polars for Crossfire, they should finish just after 1300 hours in a dying south-southeasterly followed closely by the TP-52’s. The rest of fleet may struggle a bit as the breeze will continue to drop. Other projected times are:
Beneteau First 40.7 1609
J-105 1648
Farr 1020 1719
The tides will actually be a help. For Admiralty Inlet off Bush Point.
0712 Slack
1018 Max Ebb 2.74 knots
1342 Slack
1612 Max Flood 1.75 knots
1842 Slack
This will be another race that will drive tacticians and navigators crazy as they struggle to keep their vessels in the best wind. The key here will be to keep your head out of the boat and watch which way the smart people are going. For the most part, on the way up to Scatchet Head, simply aim at the mark and sail your polars.
From Scatchet Head to Foulweather Bluff, you will want to stay in the ebb tide and stay out of Skunk Bay where it can get light in a southerly. With any kind of luck, you’ll get around FWB near slack water. Remember that the flood starts first coming down the west side of the Sound and around Point No Point, so watch your COG and SOG. Again, if you’re beating after the mark, stay out of Skunk Bay, there’s a reason why it’s called that….
From Pt No Pt to the finish, have your barber-haulers and light air sheets rigged and ready and aim for the finish. Given a choice between going due east or down the Sound on the west side, stay to the west. Just don’t overstand the finish and keep yourself between your competition and the finish line.
Remember, all of this presumes a long course. The committee has two other options if it looks like it’s going to be really light.
The rest of the weekend really looks OK with the only really breezy conditions being in the Straits. While we’ll tend to have a southerly over the Sound on Saturday, this will shift to a northerly on Sunday. In other words, Stay in Edmonds, enjoy the post-race activities and the sail home on Sunday.
Take a peek also at the surface chart for 10 October. If you were impressed with the 1040MB High, you’ll love the 1043MB monster that’s projected. It also shows another weak cold front coming over us. None of these will produce much rain however it will be getting cooler in the evenings.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
How propitious that the 2017 NWS Seattle Integrated Weather Team Workshop was yesterday and we got to preview what NWS is thinking about the upcoming winter and how they are going to convey this information. Love to see the Seattle office being a leader in this especially at a time when in spite of an increasingly complex weather scenario, the Trump administration wants to cut the budget of both NOAA and FEMA. As if the recent (and still unfinished) hurricane season hasn’t sent a clear enough message. Kurt is kicking my chair and telling me to get back on the job. (Ed. note: NO, he’s not!)
My, how things have changed over the last couple of weeks. We have gone from an ENSO neutral winter to a distinctly La Niña pattern which is really great news for skiers and the snowpack in the mountains. What is a La Niña pattern? In very simple terms it means that the temperature of the equatorial waters off of South America are significantly lower than normal. See the current SST anomaly chart. In an El Niño event, it’s the opposite, in other words significantly warmer than normal.
Click image to enlarge
So the real question is what does this mean for boaters? As you can see from the NWS Chart of Significant Winter Weather, in La Niña years we have the greatest chance of major wind storms and lowland snow events. If you ever needed an excuse to get your furled sails down and into the sailmaker for an off-season inspection, this should be it. Also, think about getting those winter mooring lines out and figuring out how to add some extra lines. I mentioned lowland snow events because those usually accompany below normal temperatures which means winterizing your boat for below freezing temperatures. Nothing worse than walking down to the boat to find only the bridge above water. Needless to say, we’ll give you a heads-up before any of those.
Right now there is no significant weather on the radar since the front passed through this morning. The rest of the weekend looks like a typically post-frontal situation with the possibility of a Puget Sound convergence zone developing in the northern Sound and over Admiralty inlet Saturday evening.So a bit of a breezy westerly in the eastern Straits that may extend down Admiralty Inlet Saturday afternoon. The Straits could see 15-25 while the north Sound could see 15-20. Sunday will be quieter with light air in the south Sound and a nice westerly/northwesterly in the eastern Straits and north Sound. Since it’s the Pacific Northwest there may be some spotty showers around.
Click images to enlarge
Sept 29 500MB
Sept 29 Surface Forecast
Sept 30 Surface Forecast
Oct 1 Surface Forecast
Oct 3 500MB
Oct 3 Surface Forecast
The charts for the weekend also provide some interesting reading in that the 500MB charts show the upper-level lows above the jet stream and a strong upper-level high below. The chart for next week (3 Oct) also shows the jet stream coming out of the Canadian Interior and back out to us. If this were later in December or early January this would be the kind of pattern that can bring snow to the Pacific Northwest.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
Once again nothing too dramatic to report, just another gorgeous Indian Summer weekend. We’ll take it because we all know it can’t last. Since we had some rain earlier as well as snow in the mountains it should be noted that after one of the driest summers on record, we are still over 7” of rain above the average year to date. Plus we don’t have any hurricanes headed our way and no really adverse weather on the horizon for at least the next 10 days. Now if only we could do something about the traffic….
When you look at the surface charts you will quickly see the reason for our great weather, that 1031MB high-pressure system right off our coast and it’s not going anywhere in any great hurry. As you check the upper air (500MB) charts, the jet stream is staying north and keeping the storms well away from us.
Sept 22 500MB
Sept 22 Surface Chart
Sept 23 Surface Forecast
Sept 24 500MB
Sept 24 Surface Forecast
Sept 26 500MB
Sept 26 Surface Forecast
Once again it will be a great weekend for powerboaters and not so good for sailors. Generally speaking light air over the entire Pacific Northwest. Maybe some clouds in the morning but those will clear and we can expect highs to be in the mid to upper 60’s. With the clear skies it will be a little coolish at night but all in all, not a bad weekend to be on the water.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
It certainly appears that this will be the last great weekend of the summer so you better get out and enjoy it! And at least we don’t live in Florida or Texas. Plus, don’t forget that we are no where near done with hurricane season. Two active in the Pacific and potentially three in the Atlantic. What will be really interesting will be the beach erosion caused by Jose on the northern part of the Eastern Seaboard especially Long Island, Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket.
Today’s surface analysis
Saturday morning surface forecast
Surface forecast Sunday
Surface forecast Sept 19
For the Pacific Northwest the question will be if it’s going to rain on the Seahawks home opener on Sunday and if so when. Right now it looks like the pre-frontal wind will start early Sunday morning with the rain starting about noon and continuing until the game ends. Take your foulies.
For boaters there simply won’t be much wind on Saturday so go ahead and power south. That way on Sunday when the breeze fills in from the south-southeast you’ll have a downwind sail back to Seattle.
Also, if you’re a sailor it’s time to think about getting those cruising sails scheduled for maintenance this winter and getting your dock buddies organized to help you get the furling jib down and folded in advance of the first big blow of the winter.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
At this point, all eyes are on Florida as we watch Irma move inexorably closer, currently projected to make landfall in the Upper Keys. 130 to 150mph winds and a 6’-10’ storm surge are going to absolutely devastate southern Florida. As I said a couple of weeks ago, this is a very interesting time of the year and when you can get three hurricanes (a Cat 5, a Cat 4 and a Cat2) in the Atlantic with the possibility of a fourth forming off of the Cape Verde Islands all at the same time, this can and should get your attention.
Our weather, on the other hand, is very benign with the possibility of a weak front coming ashore tomorrow. We finally have an onshore flow which should help clean-up the air and move the smoke to Eastern Washington. Unfortunately, there isn’t much moisture associated with the front so that isn’t going to help the fire situation.
Sept 8 500MB
September 8 Surface Forecast
Sept 9 Surface Forecast
September 10 500 MB
Sept 10 Surface Forecast
For boaters, this will mean small craft advisories in the eastern Straits of JdF (Juan de Fuca) for westerlies tonight and then become a southeasterly on Saturday as the front approaches. For the most part, the winds will be less than 15 knots all weekend over the inland waters. The other interesting feature to note is the jet stream in the 500MB charts as it is now tending to move south. As it does this will allow more fronts into the Pacific Northwest. It’s been a great summer, however, I think we can agree that it’s time for some rain.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
Well, the folks in Texas and Louisiana have certainly had enough weather probably for a lifetime. The bad news is that the European weather models are showing another 2-4″ of rain coming down Tuesday and Wednesday and then by the end of the week there’s the possibility of Hurricane Irma making a US landfall in the Gulf. YIKES! On top of that, the current administration Is going to cut funding to NOAA and FEMA while wiping out any mention of climate change. How is it we are getting 100 year, 200 year, 500 year and 800 year floods and storms every year now? Kurt is telling me to get back to weather in the Pacific NW now and save the politics for a happy hour discussion.
Click to enlarge:
500MB Sept 1
Surface Analysis Sept 1
Surface Sept 2
500MB Sept 3
Surface Sept 3
500MB Sept 4
Surface Sept 4
The important part of this chart are the red and blue numbers above and below the wind direction arrows at each of the stations. Red is the current temp and blue is the dew point, when they are the same you get fog. Note the entrance to the Straits, Sheringham and Hein Bank. Click to enlarge.
In short, we are going to have a truly spectacular weekend with no rain on the horizon anywhere in the near future. For boaters this will be great except for the possibility of fog in the mornings. I’ve added the Western Washington Surface Conditions Chart so that you can do your own predictions for fog. I can tell you from personal experience that there was plenty of fog in Admiralty Inlet and the eastern end of the Straits this morning. No reason to go anywhere so why not soak the crab pots? We were rewarded with four gorgeous Dungeness. I digress. The red number above the wind arrow is the current temp while the blue number below the arrow is the dew point, the temp at which fog will form. The closer they are, the more likely you are to get fog.
As you can see from the surface charts, our weather is being dominated by a relatively weak ridge of high pressure extending from Hawaii to directly over us. In addition, there is second weak high pressure system directly east of us that will be bringing up warm air from a thermal low over the Central Valley of California. This will result in record temperatures for our area over the next 4-5 days. Great if you’re a boater, not so good if you’re thinking about camping. The other feature that will be present is a consistent offshore flow which will cause down slope compressional heating of the air mass. This also means there will be little wind coming down the Straits from the Pacific to cool us off and no small craft advisories in the eastern Straits.
Then if you check the upper air charts (500MB) there is no jet stream activity to move any of those low pressure systems you see out in the mid-Pacific towards us. If you like hot and dry, you’re going to love the next couple of weeks. If you’re a fire-fighter, not so much.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
It’s getting to my favorite time of the year where the global weather picture starts getting really active especially in the zones where hurricanes start forming. Luckily, we don’t really have to worry about those up here. Instead, we just want to know what sort of weather we’ll have for the weekend (great) and if there’s going to be any rain (no). Then for the sailors who are racing starting tonight out of Anacortes on the Northern Century Race, they want to know if there will be wind (yes and no) or will a century be the amount of time needed to finish the race? Kidding!
As you can see from the surface charts we will have some nice weather for the weekend and for the eclipse on Monday. Just make sure you wear plenty of sunblock (always) and that you’ve got the right glasses or viewing equipment for you, your phone and your camera. And no, two pairs of sunglasses stacked on top of one another won’t cut it and the eclipse can do permanent damage to your retina and your cameras, so it’s no joke.
Aug 18 Surface Chart
Aug 19 Surface Forecast
Aug 20 Surface Forecast
Aug 22 Surface Forecast
For boaters, the usual places will have plenty of wind. The eastern end of the Straits and the southern end of the Strait of Georgia. Gale warnings tonight in the Strait of Juan de Fuca and a Small Craft Advisory for the southern part of the Strait of Georgia from 2100 hours tonight until 1000 hours Saturday morning. Rig your jack lines before you leave the dock and get everyone into foulies and safety gear as the sun goes down. Make sure whoever is navigating knows precisely where you are when the sun goes down so there’s no confusion about the range and bearing to the mark and what the hazards are around you. It’s after you get south of Patos on the reach, beat, reach to Hein Bank that the wind will really begin to drop off and will pretty much stay that way until late Saturday afternoon in the San Juan Islands.
As usual, the tides will play a role in this race, with the strongest being Saturday morning and Saturday afternoon. Remember also that the tides in Cattle Pass at the South end of San Juan Channel are double the velocities shown below.
Rosario Straits:
18 Aug
1930 .91 Ebb
2254 Slack
19 Aug
0018 .55 Flood
0206 Slack
0712 2.8 Ebb
1118 Slack
1400 1.89 Flood
1800 Slack
Haro Straits, Turn Point Boundary Pass
19 Aug
0121 .37 Flood
0348 Slack
0714 2.18 Ebb
1102 Slack
1433 1.13 Flood
1824 Slack
The general rule of thumb for the Northern Century is the sail the shortest possible course from the start to Pt. Roberts, which means leaving Guemes to port even though you might have the ebb with you out to Rosario Straits. The problem is that you will fight a stronger ebb than if you went closer to Lummi Island.
(Click on any image to enlarge)
18 Aug MM5 1900
18 Aug MM5 2200hrs
18 Aug MM5 2400hrs
19 Aug MM5 0200hrs
19 Aug MM5 0400hrs
19 Aug MM5 0600hrs
19 Aug MM5 0800hrs
19 Aug MM5 1000hrs
19 Aug MM5 1200hrs
19 Aug MM5 1400hrs
19 Aug MM5 1600hrs
19 Aug MM5 1800hrs
19 Aug MM5 2000hrs
By the time you get to Pt Roberts the breeze should be on and you should have an exciting close to beam reach back to the green buoy at the east end of Cabbage Island just north of Saturna. In the past, if you’re feeling lucky, you might try to cut the corner and aim towards San Juan Channel. The problem this year will be that this is where the breeze will die first and if you can’t make it out of Cattle Pass by 0900 hours Saturday morning, you could be anchored for about six hours because you can expect the wind to be light and variable from 0700 Saturday morning until it finally fills back down the Straits around 1500-1600 hours. To stay in the breeze you will probably be better off to sail outside of Stuart Island and go around Turn Point. The other problem is that if you go outside of Stuart the wind in Haro Straits will be light and from the south, southeast until you get south of Andrews Bay on San Juan Island where it finally clocks around to the west-southwest. At least there will be wind and less tide than if you tried to go the inside route.
Running the High-Resolution GRIBS with the polars that I have, I have Rage, Hamachi and LawnDart able to make that gate but just barely. Do you feel lucky?
From Hein Bank to the finish it will be a pretty straight forward run.
All in all, a very challenging race on some of the most beautiful water there is in the world.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
Finally, our weather is definitely changing and going back to more normal conditions. We can say goodbye to the above normal temps, goodbye to the smoke and put the welcome mat out for some rain which will end our record dry spell. All good, well almost all good. There will be some problems associated with these changes, not really much for boaters but if you’re staying at home you should be aware. The first problem that occurs after such a long dry spell is that roads have now picked up a significant coating of oil and other petroleum products which when the rain comes will make them very slick. The second problem is the dust and other gunk that has accumulated on transformers and power poles can become conductive with rain causing power outages and even fires resulting from the short circuits. Perhaps the most significant problem will be the lightning that will be coming in with this trough of low pressure. There simply isn’t enough going to be enough rain to put out the fires that may be started by the lightning.
500MB August 11
Surface Forecast August 11
Surface Forecast August 12
500MB August 13
Surface Forecast August 13
500MB August 15
Surface Forecast August 15
For boaters, we’ve already got southerlies over the inland waters and those will continue over the weekend until the post frontal northerly makes its way down the Sound on Sunday afternoon. Per usual the most wind will be in the central and eastern portion of the Strait of Juan de Fuca with gale warnings up for tonight and tomorrow afternoon. Still, no major reason to stay home. Summer is fading rapidly so why not get out and enjoy our waters. I have it from a very reliable source that the areas where it is legal to crab are producing some excellent catches.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
We’ve all probably had enough weather this week with record high temperatures and all that smoke coming down from the wild fires in BC. Not much is going to change over the weekend as this thermally induced trough will remain over the Pacific NW for most of this weekend with the possibility of a weak onshore flow developing late tomorrow and continuing into early next week. Then by the end of next week we can expect more high temps as a weak high pressure system will be pushed into eastern BC and eastern Washington by a weak low pressure system. The folks returning from TransPac will continue to be frustrated by a weaker than normal Pacific High that simply is not getting any stronger or more stable.
Surface Forecast Aug 5
Surface Forecast 6 Aug
Surface Forecast Aug 7
In summary, it’s going to stay smokey over the Pacific NW with not much wind. The good news is that it’s going to be much cooler out on the water so why not head out and enjoy it. Lake Washington will be busy with SeaFair and plenty of emphasis patrols to make sure no one is having too much fun out there, BUI is no joke so be a smart boater.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
