Author: Bruce Hedrick

Bruce’s Brief: Wx for 23, 24, & 25 Feb. Jim Depue Memorial and Girts Rekevics Foul Wx.

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Bruce’s Brief: Wx for 23, 24, & 25 Feb. Jim Depue Memorial and Girts Rekevics Foul Wx.

It’s pretty strange to be looking out the window watching the snow come down for the second day this week. Speaking of seconds, how about breeze in the south Sound for the second weekend in a row. Then for our friends in the Straits and San Juan Islands BIG breeze (25-30 knots) Saturday afternoon and into Sunday. The Girts Rekevics Foul Weather Regatta will certainly live up to its name! The Jim Depue Race and those heading out from Elliott Bay and Shilshole to practice for Blakely Rock will have some wind in the morning, however, as mid-day approaches, a convergence zone will be setting up over the Center Sound making conditions a bit light and flukey. At least it will be wet AND cold, all at no extra charge.

The aurface charts have a number of interesting features. We have a front over Western Washington this afternoon which will move east of the Cascades this evening, followed by a strong post-frontal westerly flow tonight and into Saturday. Then a stronger front will move over the Pacific Northwest Saturday night and Sunday with gales possible for the coastal waters and Strait of Juan de Fuca. A very weak high-pressure system will try to set up on Monday only to be blown out by another front on Tuesday. Welcome to late winter weather in the Pacific Northwest.

Perhaps the most interesting feature on these charts is the very summer-like high-pressure system that was snuggled up to the coast of California last weekend. It has gotten slightly stronger (1040 to 1042MB) and rounder both of which means that it’s probably not going to be easily moved from its current position. Combined with a relatively straight-line jet stream will continue to push storm systems over the top of the high and into the Pacific Northwest.

As you should anytime you go boating around here, prepare for the worst and really watch conditions. Remember the definition of heavy weather: It’s anytime you and your crew are not comfortable with the conditions. Don’t take unnecessary chances and don’t put yourself, your crew or your boat in dangerous situations.

Have a great weekend.

 

Bruce’s Brief’s: Weather for 16, 17, & 18 Feb, Breezy Toliva Shoal Race

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Bruce’s Brief’s: Weather for 16, 17, & 18 Feb, Breezy Toliva Shoal Race

Oh boy, you better sit down and get out the AED because you almost never see these three words in the same sentence: Toliva Shoal and Breezy! The models all seem to agree, we are gonna have some wind this weekend with the slight possibility of snow late Saturday and early Sunday, so if you’re going on the race you had better prepare accordingly. This includes a potential wind chill of 15-20°F which is no joke.

As you can see from the surface charts we have a relatively weak low-pressure system with an attached frontal system working over us today to be followed by a much stronger system tomorrow. The front associated with tomorrow’s system will pass through near dawn leaving us with a strong post-frontal, onshore flow. This will mean strong SW breeze over the south and central Sound with steady winds of 20-30 knots with gusts to 45 knots and this will hold for most of Saturday, even over the Toliva Shoal Race Course.

The other good news is that we’ll have favorable tides with the ebb starting just before the race starts. In this run, reach, run scenario you will probably make it to the Toliva mark fairly early which means you’ll need to be thinking ahead and be constantly planning for that next leg, especially the leg from Johnson Pt to Buoy #3 at the Flats. This will be a shifty reach where you’ll really want to have the barber-hauler rigged on the port side before you leave the dock because once you’re racing you’ll be too busy to rig it. There will also be plenty of rain which will knock visibility down so be sure to have the compass courses posted for each leg.

It will almost certainly be a hard beat from Toliva Shoal back to the finish. It tends to be lighter going through Balch Passage however if the breeze is on I would be tempted to stay with the #4 or your small jib rather than trying to do multiple headsail changes. Just power up the main. The crew will also like short tacking in there with the smaller headsail. You’ll want to work the Devils Head side of Drayton Passage to stay in flatter water then hold starboard tack all the way across to the flatter water below Johnson Point. From there to Boston Harbor it will be stay on the favored tack and HIKE, HIKE, HIKE! Once you get into Budd Inlet, you’ll want to favor the west side for flatter water and the puffs will be lifts on starboard tack.

This will be a good one just make sure the jacklines are run and everyone is wearing life jackets and harnessed up before you leave the dock.

And then there’s Sunday! By early Sunday morning, the breeze will swing around to the north-northeast and blow just as hard from that direction. Probably 25-35 knots in the north and central Sound, and the eastern end of the Straits, and 15-25 knots in the South Sound. This will also be bringing that very cold air down from the BC interior. Maybe wait until next weekend to do that delivery from Olympia to points north.

Have a great weekend, just be safe out there.

 

Bruce’s Brief for February 9-11, Nice Chilly Weekend Ahead

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Bruce’s Brief for February 9-11, Nice Chilly Weekend Ahead

Put a mark on your calendar, as of today we are BEHIND in the amount of rainfall we would normally have on this date for the month! We are however still 2.3” ahead for the year. The good news is that we should have a pretty nice weekend, the only downside is that it will be chilly.

As you can see from the charts we’ll have an offshore flow developing from the high pressure (1042mb) that is building over the interior of British Columbia. This will bring cold air out of the Canadian interior and certainly into the northern part of the Salish Sea. This flow will ease on Saturday. Being the first day the ridge is established we’ll have a nice northerly in the Sound overnight and then ease as the day goes on. We’ll have a weak front move through the area Sunday with the offshore flow returning for a brief visit Monday then switching back to an onshore flow on Tuesday.

For those of you leaving town on Thursday to do the Islands Race next weekend, (Long Beach Start, Catalina and San Clemente to port, finish in San Diego) I would pay particular attention to the 500MB chart and that 549MB upper level low centered over your race course and watch how that moves as you get closer to the start of racing.

 

 

Bruce’s Boat Show Weather Brief for February 2-4 and Seattle Boat Show Move-0ut

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Bruce’s Boat Show Weather Brief for February 2-4 and Seattle Boat Show Move-0ut

 

Bruce loves manning the NMTA booth at the Seattle Boat Show almost as much as he enjoys prognosticating the weather!

Bruce’s Brief’s Bell Harbor Boat Show Forecast: Friday 2 Feb –Sunday 4 Feb.

It’s actually been a pretty nice week except that we are, once again, ahead of rainfall for the year, already! Not much will change to slow that until Tuesday.

For the rest of the day, today expect SW breeze of 15-18 knots as another weak cold or occluded front offshore will move across the area today for strengthening onshore or westerly flow. This will create gale force westerly winds over parts of the Strait of Juan de Fuca this afternoon and evening. We can expect another weak frontal system to move across the area on Saturday, followed by another one late Saturday night or Sunday morning. This will make out on Sunday from Bell Harbor interesting as we can expect 15-25 knots of SW from 0900 on Sunday until about 1800 that evening. After that, it will ease to 10-15 knots of southerly. Expect the strongest breeze to be 25+ knots from 1100 until about 1700. Basically, a perfect reason to delay move-out until Monday and watch the Super Bowl!

 

Tides at Bell Harbor

1744 Fri                 11.08’

0019 Sat                -1.2’

0718                       12.92’

1318                       4.37’

1841                       10.48’

 

0104 Sun                              .09’

0755                       12.74’

1409                       3.72’

1942                       9.08’

0150 Mon              1.63’

 

The wind forecast for Bell Harbor

1600-1800 Fri        15-18 SW

1800-2000             10-15 S

2000-0000 Sat       10-15 SW

0000-0700             10-12 S

0700-0900             5-10 S

0900-1200             5-10 SE

1200-1900             5-10 S

2000-2300             5-10 SW

2300-0800 Sun      5-10 SE

0900-1200             15-20 SW

1200-1600             18-25 SW

1700-2200             10-15 S

 

 

Bruce’s Briefs: Weather for 26, 27, 28 Jan. The BIG Seattle Boat Show Starts Today!

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Bruce’s Briefs: Weather for 26, 27, 28 Jan. The BIG Seattle Boat Show Starts Today!

What a week we’ve had and what a weekend it will be. The folks that were able to get space at the Century Link Field Events Center are going to be so glad because it is going to be wet for the next five days followed by some drying and cooler weather towards the end of next week. As of today, we’ve had almost six inches of rain so far this year, exactly the same amount we had a year ago and almost 1.3” ahead of “normal.”

As you can see from the surface charts we’ve got a series of storm systems coming right at us and a jet stream that will keep them aimed right into the Pacific Northwest. This will mean plenty of wind over the Sound today but easing this afternoon. As tomorrow comes around expect very stormy conditions along the coast, in the eastern Straits and the San Juan Islands. We’ll have some wind over the Center and South Sound but easing in the afternoon. Late Sunday another system will come onshore bringing more rain and some wind.

If you’re working at the In-The-Water Shows be sure to check the mooring lines and fenders and run the extra lines. As we learned a couple of years ago make sure that the fenders aren’t blocking the exhaust port for the onboard furnace and that the boat can’t shift to a point where that port is blocked.

I’ll be working at the Boat Show Information Booth between the East and West Halls tonight, Saturday night and Sunday morning. During the week I’ll be there Monday night, Tuesday morning, and Friday night. So if you’re going to be at the Show around those times please come by and say hello!

Have a great weekend!

Bruce’s Brief for January 6-7 and Duwamish Head Race

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Bruce’s Brief for January 6-7 and Duwamish Head Race

And the word of the week is bombogenesis!, which is what happened to the East Coast this week resulting in hurricane force winds, lots of snow, all to be followed by record-setting cold temperatures. So what is bombogenesis? Very simply, this is a rapidly intensifying low-pressure system where the pressure drops at least 24mb over 24 hours. This system easily met the definition by dropping 59mb in 24 hours! I guess even though our weather is a little wet, we’ll take it compared to what they will have endured on the East Coast.

So how wet was it this last year? The record for rainfall in a year, as recorded at SeaTac since 1945, was 55.14 inches in 1950. In 1996 we had 50.67 inches and this year we had a measly 47.87 inches compared to a yearly average of 37.49 inches. What is interesting is that this last summer we also set a new record of 55 consecutive days without rain. This makes four consecutive years of over 44 inches of rain per year which I think we would prefer to the situation Cape Town finds itself in as it approaches “Day Zero” sometime this May. “Day Zero” is the day the taps go dry in Cape Town, the city simply runs out of water. Climate change? And Trump wants to cut funding to the National Weather Service? Kurt is kicking me to get back to my assignment for the day. (Ed. note, NO, he’s not. However, I see Trump’s reasoning: “If I fund the National Weather Service, all they’re going to do is come up with research and facts. I hate those things!”)

As we used to say at North U, one of the reasons why we enjoy sailboat racing is that no two races are ever the same. Except as I look back on last year, this is pretty damn close. Basically, there will be wind for the start and the run up to Duwamish, however, the wind will drop as you go north and then the Sound will glass off sometime around mid-afternoon. Last year Crossfire made it through the light air at Blakely Rock and Blake Island and got back into some wind and slammed the door on the fleet. The same thing could happen this year as there will be wind off the water and Crossfire has the rig to grab what there is up there.

As you can see from today’s surface analysis and from the GOES West Water Vapor picture, we have a dissipating low-pressure system moving through the area today. Pressure is already starting to rise and the wind is starting to clock around to the SW, a classic post-frontal pattern. Then you look at the Surface Forecast Chart for tomorrow and you see the problem, a huge gap in the gradient over the Pacific Northwest. Not all the models agree on this with some showing a nice south-southwesterly (8-10 knots) over the race course for the entire day. I’m not that optimistic. I think it is more likely that by the north end of Vashon things will start to get squirrely with big shifts and puffs from the SW. It will be important to sail the rhumb line from Three Tree to Alki and not sail too many extra miles chasing puffs. By Alki, have the drifter ready and don’t get too close to the beach. Remember also that with max ebb at 1300 hours and the fact that there will be lots of water coming out of the Duwamish, there could be a strong set to the west at the Duwamish mark. With the combination of very light air and anti-water at the mark, rounding could be challenging. The first boat around will have a huge advantage until they run out of wind again at Blakely Rock. From there to the finish will be a shifty bit of drag racing from hole to hole. The other bad news is that there will be no flood tide until early Sunday morning at 0512 hrs. Yes, the ebb will run from 0842 Saturday until 0512 Sunday.

Remember, the big Seattle Boat Show starts Friday, Jan 26th at CenturyLink Field. I’ll be working at the Information Booth both Friday and Saturday evening the first weekend, Sunday the 28th from 1000-1400, Monday the 29th from 1500-2000hrs, Tuesday the 30th from 1000-1500hrs, and Friday, Feb 2nd from 1600-2100hrs, so if you’re at the show please stop by and say hello.

 

Bruce’s Brief’s 1,2 and 3 Dec: TYC Winter Vashon

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Bruce’s Brief’s 1,2 and 3 Dec: TYC Winter Vashon

As usual, there will be a great turnout for the start of the South Sound Series. Where else do we get a chance to race in rain, snow, and sometimes a pretty good breeze. Unfortunately, this year it’s looking like some breeze for the start then dropping off as we transition from a very rainy November to a dryish and coolish start of December. November is traditionally our wettest month and this year will be no exception as we are two inches ahead of our average rainfall for the month. The good news is that we’ve only had 42 inches of rain so far this year and the record is 55 inches set in 1950. The normal amount of rain for the year by the end of November is 32 inches.

As you can see from the charts we’ve got quite a mishmash of weather systems lurking off the coast and by Monday we’ll have the start of a fairly big high-pressure system starting to build over the area with a whopping low-pressure slamming the Aleutians, again.

While it is Thursday, the models are still divergent with the general consensus shifting towards some wind on Saturday morning from the south then gradually becoming lighter before it shifts to the north by around midnight. For racers, this will mean drag racing from puff to puff as you ride the tide up Colvos. While you may have 8-10 knots of southerly for the start, this will drop to five knots or less as the day goes on with plenty of dead spots in Colvos. The masthead Windex will give you some warning about where the next puff will be coming from. The boats with the tall rigs will make out as long as the trimmers are working hard. After you get around the top mark you’ll probably have a due southerly until it goes really light around mid-afternoon. As you beat towards Pt. Robinson, don’t get too close to Vashon and don’t stray too far to the east of the rhumb line. While on starboard if the puffs start to become lifts that will tell you to stay to the west just not too close to the Island.

The great thing about TYC is that if it gets too sticky in Colvos, they usually have the good sense to end the race at the top mark so make sure someone has the bino’s out and you’re checking the flags on the mark boat.

While the parties, both pre and post race, at TYC are legendary, remember that the first day the high-pressure ridge builds over the Northwest will result in the most wind from the North and if you’re delivering the boat back to Seattle on Sunday you could have 15-20 cold knots of wind right on the nose. If they finish you at the top mark and Seattle is your home port, head straight for the barn after you finish and juggle the cars later.

Good luck and have a great race.

 

 

Bruce’s Brief’s Nov 17, 18, & 19 and the Pineapple Express

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Bruce’s Brief’s Nov 17, 18, & 19 and the Pineapple Express

No doubt, winter is here and is just getting started. The really interesting part of this weekend’s charts are the 500MB charts which show the jet stream undulating over the Pacific into the Aleutians, then back down to Hawaii before coming back into the Pacific Northwest, can you say Pineapple Express?

For those of you that decided to wait until this weekend to bring the boat back from Round the County, the best day was probably today, however, being mere mortals and having jobs may have prevented that. The next best day will be tomorrow, just get an early start and if you’re comfortable leaving early so you get to Deception Pass around 0830, that will be the tail of the ebb before slack at 0930. Then go down the inside to avoid what will be more wind and more lump in Admiralty Inlet. This will also get you south or north to Vancouver before 2100 hours when that next front will start manifesting itself over the area. By early Sunday morning expect Gale warnings for SE breeze (35-40 knots) off the coast and in the eastern Straits of JdF and southern part of the Strait of Georgia. The front will pass around noon with the wind moderating by mid-Sunday afternoon.

For those of you going cruising over the Thanksgiving Holiday, really pay attention to the weather as we are going to get pummeled by a series of fronts coming into the Pacific Northwest. Next Wednesday afternoon might be a good time to leave work early and go down to the boat to check the mooring lines and make sure all your chafe gear is in place.

Have a great weekend.

RTC Photo Finish Vids and Bruce’s Weather Brief for Saturday Night thru Monday and “Home Delivery”

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If you’re up in the Islands then you are already feeling what’s coming tomorrow. Smith Island currently showing 28 with gusts to 32 from SE and the barometer is still dropping. So while there will be wind in the Straits, it still looks like the starting area could be a problem. Once you get just a little ways south you should be sailing into a building southeasterly where along the very bottom of the course you could see 15-25 with higher gusts. By the time you get to Davidson Rock it should back off to 15 from the SE and then steadily drop as you approach the finish. On the run north, there will tend to be more wind on the west side of the course.

The real question about getting heading for home on Sunday comes down “well, do you feel lucky?” If you’re trying to get back to Seattle and you think you can make it to Port Townsend before 1800 hours go ahead and roll the dice. The next blast of SE will fill in around midnight but you will still be in 15-25 knots on and off all the way back. After midnight expect 25+ from the SE. Regardless, I would probably park the boat at Orcas, enjoy the post-race party, and salute your fellow competitors. Plan to bring the boat down later, much later. Just check out the surface charts.

If you’re headed back to Vancouver, and you finish by 1300-1400, the key will be to be back at your slip in Vancouver before midnight. For the run north, you’ll have consistently 15-25 from the SE. After midnight expect it to build to 25-30 with higher gusts.

Contrary to what my friend Nigel says, the logs don’t sink below the surface after dark. So be careful out there.

Today’s Half – A Good Day’s Sail

As far as the racing went today, well, word it was a good day on the water with no rain. The results.

Our friends on Crossfire were quick to get out the following track.

Crossfire’s Track

The videos, by Malcolm MacNeil, show the duel to the finish between Crossfire and Glory. Crossfire just beat them across the line, But Glory won the day on corrected time in ORC. Over on the PHRF side, it was apparently a Moore kind of day with Moore 24s taking the top three spots in Division 5 with the top Moore, Bruzer, grabbing first in fleet. It’ll be interesting to see what happens in tomorrow’s blow. After all is said and done, I’ll be looking for material (stories, photos, vids) to post. Hit me. -KH

Bruce’s Brief 11, 12 &13 November, Round the County 2017

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Bruce’s Brief 11, 12 &13 November, Round the County 2017

There’s a reason why Round the County (RTC) is one of the most popular races in the Pacific Northwest and this weekend will only continue to further that reputation. The course, in addition to being just beautiful, is always a challenge with interesting rivers of tidal current and winds that do their best to be unpredictable. As we get closer to the start the different models are not very much in agreement and it’s easy to see why, just check out the current surface analysis and then the forecast chart for tomorrow.

We currently have a weak, 1009 MB, low-pressure system off of the central Oregon coast trying to move inland. There is a deepening low-pressure system off of SE Alaska which is riding the jet stream (500MB chart) towards the Pacific Northwest and will start to impact us Sunday night and into next week. Delivery skippers heading south may want to park the boat after the race. If you’re headed north and back to Vancouver, be prepared for some breeze. I’ll update this on Sunday.

Tidal Currents

Peapod Rocks

0538      Slack

0912      Max Flood            2.14 knts

1255      Slack

1515      Max Ebb                 1.66 knts

1950      Slack

Turn Point

1252      Slack

1537      Max Ebb                 1.38 knts

2011      Slack

For Saturday that weak low-pressure system will be gone and we’ll have a pair of weak high-pressure systems inland slowing the approach of that low from SE Alaska. In addition, we’ll have a weak low-pressure trough off our coast ahead of that approaching cold front. So what does that mean for racing? Be prepared for just about anything. Since most of the time, we race in windward-leeward format, the reaching equipment is usually buried in the gear locker. Get out those barber haulers, snatch blocks and reaching sheets and make sure they are readily available along with the drifter. Those crews that trim and change gears aggressively will be the winners. While the forecast may be for small craft advisories on both Saturday and Sunday, the timing of the breeze is very much in question. Also, the wind will be from the southeast however where it will be is still a very big question.

Click to enlarge image:

For the start expect light air, downwind conditions with the wind building slightly as you get north of Lawrence Point on Orcas. From Lawrence to Patos you will essentially be dead downwind so you’ll be watching the gybe angles and your SOG with the flood tide. Also be aware of the limiting marks found in the SI’s. The really interesting part of the race will be from Patos to Turn Point as the southeasterly is going to have a hard time getting over Orcas and back to touching down in Boundary Pass. After 1300 hours you’ll at least have the tide with you. This is where the models are very divergent as to when the steadier breeze might fill in. One model has Crossfire finishing at around 1300 hrs while another has them in around 1430 hrs.

Sunday will be quite a different story as that low gets closer to the race course. This shouldn’t be a gear busting thrash to Davidson Rock however you could see puffs to 20 knots from SE the closer you get to Davidson. Unfortunately, the problem may be the starting line and where the committee decides to set it. You may recall in 2015 that after a wild Saturday, the Sunday start was set in a real hole and a number of contenders were unable to even make the start line. Those that made it had a nice beat in a southeasterly after they got past Lime Kiln Point.

Tidal Currents Sunday

Haro Strait

0812      Slack

1036      Max Flood            1.61 knts

1315      Slack

1656      Max Ebb                 1.61 knts

2242      Slack

Rosario Strait

0900      Max Flood            1.5 knts

1300      Slack

1630      Max Ebb                 1.94 knts

2048      Slack

In addition to the challenge of getting away from the starting line, you’ll also be sailing into a building flood tide until you get past False Bay. Keep track of COG and SOG until you are solidly into the current that’s going your way. Ideally, you’d like to finish before 1300 hrs. The current GRIB files have Crossfire finishing just after noon. Think about starting with the headsail in the port groove so you’d hoist the next headsail while on starboard tack, then do a short hitch to port away from the Island to drop the old headsail.

Besides getting all the reach gear ready make sure safety comes first. Have a great weekend and if you’ve got AIS please leave it on for the race so I can armchair race along with you! Thanks