Bruce Hedrick

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 Dec. SSSS Winter Vashon, Should be a great one!

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs December 1, 2023December 1, 2023Winter Vashon Race 0 Comment

Every once and a while things come together for what should be a great race. Such is the case for Winter Vashon tomorrow. We have a warm front passing over the area now to be followed by a cold front early tomorrow morning (2-4 am). With frontal passage, a strong onshore flow will develop over the area with gale warnings along the coast and down the Strait of JdF. There will also be a strong onshore flow through the Chehalis Gap and into the South Sound. This will bring 15-25 knots of southwest wind to the racecourse for most of Saturday.

Today we have a moderate onshore flow in the Straits and through the Gap however, this will change to a prefrontal southeasterly later this evening. For the race tomorrow, expect 15-25 knots of WSW breeze in the starting area. As you sail into Colvos Passage the wind will back to the SW and ease slightly however it should still be a hull speed run to the top mark. As you sail north in Colvos, the puffs will tend to be headers so this will require good coordination between the driver and the trimmers. Don’t worry about getting cold, everyone will either be trimming hard or hiking hard on this leg and the next one.

Before you get to the top mark, start thinking about what headsail you’ll be using for the close reach from the top mark to Point Robinson. You will also want to have your barber hauler set up before you round the top mark. The breeze will probably be in the 12-18 knot range on this leg, however, at Pt Robinson expect the breeze to build to 16-25 knots. So, at the top mark set the jib in the port groove so you change down on starboard tack, do a quick tack to get the bigger sail down on port, and then tack back to starboard once you feel the breeze start to ease as you get closer to Maury Island. The puffs as they come over Vashon and Maury Island will tend to be lifts on starboard tack so favor the west side of the rhumb line from Pt Robinson to the finish. As you get closer to the south end of the islands, the breeze will tend to clock from the SW to WSW maybe even to the point of allowing you to barber haul the lead out for the last bit to the finish.

The weather charts, especially the 500MB upper-level charts and satellite pic provide a very clear picture of what we can look forward to this coming week. One weather system after another with plenty of rain and wind. While November may have been quieter and slightly dryer than normal, that will all change over the next two weeks. For November we had 5.71” of rain compared to an average of 6.31” so just .6” below average. Year to date we’ve had 26.42” compared to an average of 33.62” so 7.2” below normal. In the first two weeks of December, we could easily get what we had for the entire month of November. The real problem with this pattern is that the freezing level will rise substantially to almost 7,000ft and this will diminish the current snowpack and lead to lowland flooding in the usual areas. Should be a very interesting month for weather.

Have a safe, great race, and enjoy the always superb hospitality of TYC!

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for Nov 17, 18, 19, 20, and 21. GHYC LeMans, South Sound Squaxin Island, and CYC Turkey Bowl.

For all the doom and gloom forecasts, you would think it was going to be a blowout and washout of a weekend. Not the case at all. The bad news is that our friends in Olympia and Gig Harbor will have very light conditions all day Saturday but no rain. The Turkey Bowl will have some breeze about mid-day on Saturday before becoming light and variable for the rest of the day. Sunday will be a much better day for racing in the Center Sound with SE breeze in the 4-17 knot range all day. The most wind will be along the coast, the Strait of JdF, and Admiralty Inlet after midnight on Saturday as the post-frontal westerly comes onshore.

The surface analysis chart, sat pic, and 500MB charts for today will provide you with a very interesting picture of what is going on up and down our coast. We have centered over us today a weak 1021 MB high-pressure system hence the light air around the Salish Sea. Offshore is quite another story with a weak surface low-pressure system off Southern California that is not going very far or very fast because it is being held in place by an upper-level cutoff low-pressure system. We also have a series of low-pressure systems in the Gulf of Alaska extending as far south as 40N. The extended cold front goes from SE Alaska to almost Hawaii.

On Saturday the low off California will have drifted slowly to the north, while the lows in the Gulf of Alaska will have consolidated and will move slowly and directly towards the Pacific NW. As you can see, the pressure gradient over the Pacific NW will remain weak while the gradient behind the cold front will compress and as it comes ashore Saturday night this will bring the strong post-frontal onshore flow down the Strait of JdF.

The 48hr surface forecast is, as usual, the most interesting as it shows the entire North Pacific and this week you will see two of the deepest/strongest low-pressure systems we’ve seen this fall. The closest one to North America is currently at 982MB but in 24 hours will deepen to 968MB. Almost, but not quite, bombogenesis. That requires a 24Mb drop in 24 hours. Then off Kamchatka, Russia, and moving into the Bering Sea we have a 944MB low with hurricane-force winds on its south side. Keeping the 982MB low from directly impacting the Pacific NW is a 1032MB high off San Francisco. The 500Mb chart also shows the jet stream going over the top of this high and eventually coming ashore off the north end of Vancouver Island. This will keep us dry and with temps slightly above normal.

In this post-frontal onshore flow, the breeze will be from the NW off the coast at 30-40 knots. It will flow down the Strait at 25-35 knots, around the bottom of the Olympics, and through the Chehalis Gap at 20-30 knots. Too bad Squaxin Island and the LeMans Race couldn’t be rescheduled for Sunday. That would make for some sporty sailing especially trying to get out of Gig Harbor. The flow coming up the Sound will persist Sunday giving the Turkey Bowl some great sailing with 4-15 knots of SE most of the day with the breeze backing to the ESE then ENE late in the afternoon.

Very little rain during the daylight hours this weekend, however so far this month we’ve had just over 5” of rain compared to an average of 3.31”. For the year we are still 4.82” below average. Some rain overnight Saturday into Sunday morning and then another weak front will come into the area on Tuesday.

Enjoy the weekend!

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 3, 4, 5, and 6 Nov. If you’re sailing just about anywhere on the Salish Sea this weekend, you’ll have the breeze

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs November 3, 2023November 3, 2023 0 Comment

I guess the pictures of a loaded barge sailing (literally) into the Bell Harbor Pier are enough to confirm just how much breeze there was on Elliott Bay. Kudos to the West Seattle Water Taxi captain, who did the right thing and with his actions kept the Seattle Aquarium and the Big Wheel from major damage. It also serves to illustrate just how valuable the NDBC Graphs can be if you are thinking about heading out on the water. In the graph, you can see the pressure dropping very rapidly (the green line) and just when it hits the bottom you can see we had a peak gust and windspeed of 30-35 knots at West Point. These graphs are a great way to spot trends and when the graph is steep, you know we are in for some weather.

Today’s surface analysis chart and sat pic give you a classic picture of what we have coming for tomorrow. The low in the center of the sat pic is the 984MB low with an attached warm front that will come through the area tonight followed by a cold front that will come through on Saturday. This low is moving off to the NE as our weak string of high-pressure systems inland still have the power to deflect this deepening low into BC. Notice also that this 984MB low will intensify to 976MB overnight. As it hits the coastal buffer zone on Sunday it will finally start to weaken and dissipate.

The 500MB chart shows the jet stream with a SW to NE flow coming ashore near Cape Flattery. As the weekend goes on, the Jet Stream will sag to the south where by Tuesday the Jet Stream will be coming ashore south of San Francisco. This will allow for cooler temperatures and another storm system to come into the Pacific NW early next week.

Last week we mentioned that November is typically the wettest month of the year and the way we starting this year certainly seems to reinforce that thinking. While it’s only the third of November we are almost an inch ahead of the average for this date. In some ways this is good, however, with the warmer than normal temps, we are not yet building snowpack.

As I said at the start of this missive, we are going to have breeze tomorrow. It doesn’t matter if you’re doing Herron Island in the South Sound, the STYC Fall Regatta, the Anacortes Commodores Cup, or the Kits Bluenose Regatta on English Bay. You can and should anticipate sailing in 10-25 knots of S-SE breeze with higher gusts. This means PDF’s, safety harnesses, and jack lines are all on and in place before you leave the dock. When it comes to flying the spinnaker in that kind of breeze, just remember that staying upright is fast, and going sideways is slow. If you’re not comfortable with that kind of breeze, just wing the jib out and watch the carnage develop around you. Live to fight another day. (Ed. Note: I’ve seen none other than Bill Buchan wing the jib out while others were wiping out, only to lead at the leeward mark. Doesn’t always work that way, but can. KH)

Have a great weekend and BE SAFE out there.

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for October 27, 28, 29, 30, and Halloween! A beautiful weekend to be on the water! Cool and breezy today, not so much Saturday and Sunday.

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs October 27, 2023October 27, 2023 0 Comment

Another crazy week of weather and not just in the Pacific NW. The Midwest is about to see the first big blast of cold weather while Mexico continues to clean up after four hurricanes. Don’t look now but a fifth hurricane is forming off Guatemala in conditions very conducive for hurricane development.

For the Salish Sea, the best day for sailing will be today as we have a strong NE flow coming out of the Fraser River Valley because of a strong(1040MB), multi-centered high-pressure system extending from almost Anchorage to Puget Sound. Hence the breeze and the cold temps. Check also the 500Mb Charts as it still has that exaggerated bend going from just north of Hawaii, over the eastern part of the Aleutians, to well north in Alaska before curving back south and then coming ashore in southern Oregon.

By tomorrow, the pressure gradient will ease over the area however the dominant weather feature will be a stalled occluded front running down the coast of North America from about Seward, Alaska to just north of San Francisco. The inland high-pressure system will also drift to the SE and strengthen to 1043MB. This will bring light air to the Salish Sea and start the development of strong Santa Ana breezes in central and southern California,

This pattern will persist into Sunday with a slight tightening of the pressure gradient over the area. Being the Pacific NW and fall, these conditions won’t last as late Tuesday another frontal system will make its way into the Salish Sea. Don’t worry, it will be dry for trick or treating! From Wednesday on, expect typical typically wet conditions for the Pacific Northwest. November is, after all, typically the wettest month of the year. As a note, going into our El Niño winter it looks like we will end October only about .2” below our average rainfall. A good start.

For wind this weekend, expect light conditions in the central Sound until about early afternoon tomorrow when the weak northerly will build to 10-15 knots out of the north, not the northwest. This will hold until about mid-afternoon Sunday when we could get about 15-20 knots of NW breeze in the central Sound only. The rest of the Salish Sea will see generally light conditions.

Have a great weekend.

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 20, 21, 22, 23, and 24 Oct. Plenty of racing this weekend. Pumpkin Regatta continues at WVYC, Race Your House, and Great Pumpkin at STYC.

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs October 21, 2023October 21, 2023 0 Comment

Another week of record high temps over the Salish Sea, while the Midwest and East Coast prepare for the first blast of winter and a late-season hurricane with plenty of rain will hit Cabo tomorrow before crossing the Sea of Cortez and curving into the State of Sinaloa. This is just a preview of how crazy this winter could be.

Yesterday’s surface analysis chart shows our weak (1026MB) and amorphous Pacific High at about 48N 143W with a weak low (1014MB) just east of the Cascades. Yesterday’s sat pic shows a weak and disintegrating front moving onshore today. As you can see from the surface charts, the pressure gradient will remain weak over the weekend. As is the normal progression in the Pacific NW, the first day after frontal passage will see a weak ridge of high-pressure rebuild over the area and bring the best wind. This ridge will progressively weaken over the weekend bringing lighter wind. The wind will be lighter in the morning then as the day progresses a slightly stronger onshore flow will develop over the inland waters. The best wind for this weekend will probably be in the Strait of Georgia, especially on the west side of the Strait.

This bodes well for WVYC Pumpkin Regatta which will see remarkably consistent winds of 4-12 knots from the WNW for Saturday with the possibility of a slightly stronger breeze in the mid to late afternoon. Sunday will see lighter conditions with the wind going from the NW to the WSW in the afternoon but probably staying at less than 8 knots.

For the STYC Regattas, the problem will be if they try to use the Z mark on the west side of the Sound against the north side of Port Madison. With a prevailing north wind of 10 knots or less in the central Sound, the breeze at the Z mark will be lighter and if boats have difficulty in there, that will just chop up what breeze there is even more.

The other charts of interest this weekend are the upper level or 500MB charts which show an exaggerated meridional flow. By the 24^th of Oct, the jet stream will travel from 30N to 64N before curving back south to 45N and coming ashore near the mouth of the Columbia. This is what will bring cooler temps to the Salish Sea next week with the possibility of some light, mid-week rain. The last week of October could be fairly wet, but we’ll see.

Enjoy the weekend!

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 13, 14, 15, 16, and 17 Oct. Pumpkin Regatta WVYC, PSSC CYC Seattle, and Eagle Island Race South Sound, Lots going on this weekend.

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs, Racing October 13, 2023October 13, 2023PSSC regatta 0 Comment

Lots of sailing going on this weekend combined with plenty of weather. In other words, a typical fall weekend with an Annular Eclipse topping. We just won’t be able to see it because it’s going to be raining. Just about everywhere.

Today’s surface analysis chart shows a series of low-pressure systems aimed right at the Salish Sea. Until you look at the 992MB low just off our coast, which now is projected to move in a NNW direction and parallel the coast up into SE Alaska. The attached cold front will drag across the Salish Sea with gusty winds. With the coastal buffer zone in play, this front will weaken as it comes onshore. This means the strongest breeze will be along the coast, the eastern end of the Strait of JdF, and the northern part of the San Juan Islands.

The other interesting chart is the 48hr surface forecast chart 15 Oct, which shows the entire north Pacific. In the middle is a very large low-pressure system (950MB) which is actually the remnants of Typhoon Bolaven and at this point, it is aimed at the California/Oregon Border. True, it is projected to weaken to 962MB and it should continue to weaken however if it does make landfall, it will still be a significant storm. It is particularly interesting that this week is the anniversary of the 1962 Oct 12 storm which was also the result of a weakened, post-tropical Typhoon.

How all of these will affect the racing this weekend is shown below:

Time Eagle Island PSSC Pumpkin Regatta

0900 S 5-11 SSW 3-7 SE 7-12

1000 SSW 3-7 S 3-7 SE 5-11

1100 S 2-7 S 4-11 SE 5-12

1200 SSW 2-6 S 8-12 ESE 4-9

1300 SSW 3-5 S 4-8 SE 4-9

1400 SSW 3-5 SSW 3-8 SE 4-9

1500 S 6-9 SE 3-10 SE 5-10

1600 WSW 8-11 SE 3-8 SE 5-10

1700 WSW 0-5 SE 4-9 ESE 8-13

Sunday

0900 ESE 0-6 ESE 8-14

1000 E 4-8 E 6-12

1100 SSE 3-6 ESE 6-10

1200 L&V* E 4-8

1300 L&V ESE 3-6

1400 ENE 3-5 E 2-5

1500 NE 3-6 E 2-5

1600 N 4-8 E 2-5

1700 N 3-5 E 2-5

*Light & Variable

Not terrible conditions but mainly light with rain . A much stronger front will come through on Monday.

Enjoy the weekend and stay safe.

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce’s Briefs. Wx for 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10 Oct. Fall is finally arriving, Foulweather Bluff Race and it’s going to be a beautiful weekend.

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs October 6, 2023October 6, 2023 0 Comment

September certainly ended on a wet note and for the month of October, we are actually a little above normal. This weekend will be the exception to what is traditionally the wettest part of the year with no rain and temperatures well above normal, maybe even in record territory. Today’s sat pic and surface analysis charts provide a very clear explanation for this anomaly.

With higher pressure to the east of the Cascades (1035MB) and a thermally induced trough along the coast, we have an offshore flow with the strongest breeze being 17 knots from the ESE at the mouth of the Strait of JdF with Race Rocks a close second with 15 knots of ESE breeze. The sat pic shows spectacularly clear conditions over the Salish Sea with the offshore breeze holding the cloud cover well offshore. There is also very little pressure gradient over the area so breezes over the inland waters are generally light.

Unfortunately, these conditions will hold well into the weekend until another front makes its presence felt late Sunday afternoon. This front is attached to a 984MB low that will move in an NNE direction and slowly intensify before coming ashore in SE Alaska early next week. This will also bring rain to the Salish Sea for most of the first half of next week. This system will also generate gale-force SE conditions along the coast. A second system will also come ashore on Tuesday.

The long-range forecast shows yet another break for next weekend with above normal temps and below-average rainfall. The week of 16 Oct really does look like the start of a fairly wet period and a more typical fall pattern.

As I mentioned above, the conditions for the Foulweather Bluff Race in the absence of any real pressure gradient look a little on the light side. The good news is that the tidal current at the FWB mark will not be killer. Max flood will only be about .74 knots at 0742 hrs with slack tide occurring at around 1442hrs.

The interesting part of how the pressure gradient is shaping up is that the most wind over the inland waters will probably be in Admiralty Inlet and the west side of the North Sound. The bad news is that conditions in the starting area will remain in the 2-5 knot range all day. A SE breeze of 3-8 knots will backfill down Admiralty Inlet from Port Townsend getting to FWB around mid-day. It will backfill down to around Pilot Pt but not much further. The nice weather and warm temps will create a more interesting problem at Scatchet Head as the heating of the bluff will cause the wind to lift off the water keeping conditions very light near the bluff.

The other charts of interest are the upper-level, 500MB charts, which show a transition from today’s roughly meridional flow to a zonal flow by midweek with the jet stream coming ashore near the CA/OR border. This is what will bring cooler temps and wetter conditions to the Salish Sea.

Enjoy this weekend but make sure the boat has the winter fenders and mooring lines securely rigged.

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 29, 30 Sept and 1, 2, and 3 Oct. Nice sailing on Saturday, not so much on Sunday.

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs September 29, 2023September 29, 2023 0 Comment

Our mild fall weather will continue as the Pacific High (1030MB) now has a SW to NE orientation extending from roughly 37N 150W to 50N 135W. Combine this with a jet stream, whose flow is now meridional and coming ashore in southern Oregon, with a shift to the north as the week goes on and you can see how storm systems will be directed to the north of the Salish Sea. Once again we are so lucky to be living here, just look at the rain New York City is getting today. 3-4 months worth of rain happening in one day. Yikes!

As a ridge of high-pressure rebuilds over our area, a northerly flow will develop and increase tonight and into tomorrow. This will bring a northerly breeze of 8-16 knots to the northern waters and central Sound. If you’re racing in the central Sound note that this is a northerly not NW flow. This will ease as an onshore flow brings a westerly breeze down the Strait of JdF starting early Saturday evening. The pressure gradient will ease early Sunday morning bringing light air to the area except in the southern part of the Strait of Georgia which will see NW breeze of 12-20 knots.

The other chart of interest is the 96hr 500MB chart which shows a distinct meridional flow around an upper-level high centered at 40N 135W. This will direct the jet stream well to the north coming ashore near Ketchikan. This will keep temperatures mild and the chance of rain fairly low for the Salish Sea for at least the next 10 days. We have a slightly elevated chance of rain for Monday as the remnants of a weak cold front drag over the area. After that, temps will start to rise.

Enjoy the weekend!

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 22, 23, 24, 25, and 26 Sept. Plenty of boating this weekend, not bad on Saturday but Sunday will be a different story.

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs September 22, 2023September 22, 2023 0 Comment

Of course, everybody is talking about the rain that’s coming but is only part of the story. The real story will be next spring and summer because the drought we are in is simply not going to go away. So far this month we’ve had only .7” of rain compared to an average of 1.02”. For the year we are at 15.08” compared to an average of 22.81”. This will not improve much going into the fall and with the forecast of an El Niño winter, we can expect temperatures to be above normal and rainfall to be below normal. This will mean some rain in the spring, just enough to get the grasses and brush growing, and then with a dry late spring and early summer you have the perfect formula for an epic wildfire summer. Start planning now.

Today’s surface analysis chart and sat pic show the Salish Sea protected by a weak ridge of high pressure but with an approaching cold front off the coast. This will give us a gale force pre-frontal SE breeze along the coast, the north end of Admiralty Inlet, the east end of the Strait of JdF, the San Juan Islands, and the Strait of Georgia. The front will pass through the area Saturday afternoon after which breezes will ease over the area.

The Sunday morning surface forecast chart (48hr) shows a weak (1020MB) high-pressure system just east of the Cascades with an impressive 978MB low just off the coast moving in an NNE direction and projected to deepen to 964MB. This will be the strongest low to impact our weather since early last spring. Sunday will be a good day to think about adding some extra fenders to the boat and going to your winter mooring system. The wind won’t really start impacting our area until Sunday evening and into Monday morning with the strongest breeze occurring along the coast, in the north Sound, Admiralty Inlet, the east end of the Strait of JdF, the San Juans, and the Strait of Georgia. The breeze will remain strong along the coast but will start to ease over the inland waters by late Monday afternoon.

The upper-level charts (500MB) show the jet stream flow to be zonal until it is impacted by the coast when it takes a distinct turn to the NE. The flow becomes more zonal as the week goes on however it also continues to drift to the south which will bring more fall-like conditions to the Salish Sea. Just not an abundance of rain.

Enjoy the weekend!

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 15, 16, 17, and 18 Sept. Our gorgeous weather continues, just don’t tell anyone outside of the Salish Sea!

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs September 15, 2023September 15, 2023 0 Comment

Our relatively boring weather will continue however the temps are cooling and there are some impressive low-pressure systems in the North Pacific. These systems and their attached frontal systems are beginning to impact our weather. This coming week the tail end of a cold front will drag over us on Monday. Whatever rain it brings will be light and won’t help our ongoing drought conditions.

We mentioned the tropics in the Atlantic last week and today I have attached a very colorful chart from the National Hurricane Center. There are now three major systems in the North Atlantic with Hurricane Lee poised to strike the Maritime Provinces of Canada. The other two systems will pose no threat to any land masses except perhaps Bermuda. This is because the upper-level airflow and the jet stream have become primarily zonal. This will prevent any of these tropical cyclones from reaching the continental US. This upper-level airflow is an extension of what is happening in the North Pacific with the jet stream moving slowly to the south and now coming ashore just north of Vancouver Island.

While we have spent the summer complaining about our weak and non-typical Pacific High, it is now finally starting to round up and deepen. By the 19^th of Sept, the high will be at 1031MB with a persistent lobe extending over the Pacific NW. This combination will continue to weaken storm systems as they approach our area. The 48hr Surface Chart shows a very strong low-pressure system (968MB) in the Gulf of Alaska which will produce hurricane-force winds for Kodiak Island. So, systems are getting stronger and eventually, they will reach our area however not until next weekend.

For wind this weekend you can expect the strongest breeze to be the westerlies in the Strait of JdF. Some of that will extend down the Sound on Saturday and become southwesterly in the San Juan Islands and Bellingham Bay. The breeze will continue in the Straits over the weekend however on Sunday conditions will be light over the central and south Sound.

Enjoy the weekend!

Bruce Hedrick

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