As usual, spring does not disappoint with its variety of weather in the Pacific NW. This weekend and the coming week will offer the usual smorgasbord of weather. At least we don’t live near Ft. Lauderdale, (or for that matter anywhere in Florida) where they got 25” of rain in 24 hours earlier this week, and the airport in FL is still closed.
When it comes to rainfall, all it took was 5 days for us to go from behind for the month to almost an inch ahead and it’s only mid-April. For the year we are still behind by almost 5” however I think we’ll take that because with the less rainfall has come the cooler than normal temps which will keep the snowpack intact and help us going into the summer. This became even more important this week with the NWS announcing an official El Niño watch for the upcoming fall and winter. This usually means a warmer and drier summer than normal for the Pacific NW. It should also mean a less intense hurricane season for the Atlantic and the Pacific. The wildcard in this is the persistent global warming and the fact that forecasters don’t know how this will impact the upcoming El Niño.
Today’s surface analysis chart and sat pic show the clearing we are enjoying now however off of the Queen Charlotte Islands (Haida Gwaii) there is a 999Mb low which will intensify to 983Mb over the next 24 hrs so not bombogenesis but close. This is what will impact our weather starting late tomorrow afternoon and into Sunday. We will have a nice day for sailing tomorrow but wet and windy on Sunday which will continue into the coming week.
The surface forecast chart for tomorrow shows a tightening of the pressure gradient along Vancouver Island however a wide gap over Puget Sound. This will translate to strong southerly winds along the coast and the eastern end of the Strait of JdF. The Central Sound will have southerly winds in the 10-12 knt range with the South Sound staying in the 5-8 knt range. There will be some easing in the late afternoon however by midnight the breeze will build in the Eastern Strait of JdF and San Juan Islands.
On Sunday by noon, the breeze in the Eastern Strait will be in the 25-35knt range, while the Central and South Sound will have SE-S breeze of 15-25 knots. By mid-afternoon, the breeze in the Strait will ease as a post-frontal breeze tries to make it down the Strait. The breeze in the Central and South Sound will stay in the 12-20 knot range with an increase to 15-25 knots in the Central Sound by late afternoon and early evening.
The other interesting charts of note today are the 500MB or upper-air charts, which show a return to meridional flow with the jet stream coming ashore just north of SF by Sunday and then retreating to the LA area by Tuesday. This is what will keep us in a cooler and wetter pattern this coming week with the remote possibility that we may set a record for having no 60°F+ days in April. I still say we’ll take that.
Have a Great Weekend, stay safe, and use that sunblock!
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)