Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 14, 15, 16, and 17 Aug, Northern Century Race

We said summer had arrived last week and this weekend it will arrive with some very, very warm temps especially on Sunday. Today’s Satellite Pic shows just how spectacularly clear conditions are over the Salish Sea.

That’s both the good news and the bad news as the Surface Analysis Charts show our Pacific high weakening and tending to flatten while a thermal trough of low-pressure expands along the coast running from San Francisco inland to southern BC. This will convert our current onshore flow to an offshore flow on Saturday which will bring some downslope winds and compressional heating to the area, hence the high temps. The Charts also show the distinct lack of any kind of pressure gradient over the area. This will make for, once again, a very challenging Northern Century Race.

The real challenge for this race is that in this transition period from onshore to offshore flow, the Race course is right in the convergence zone where the flow coming down the Strait of JdF (SOJ) meets the flow coming down the Strait of Georgia (SOG). As the flow coming down the SOJ weakens, the flow coming down the SOG will build slightly turning the southerly/southwesterly flow over the San Juan Islands to a north/northwesterly flow. The big question is always, when will this happen? The models are not in agreement which is not surprising considering the lack of a pressure gradient.

The keys for the race are getting out of the starting area, getting through the lee of Guemes Island, and getting up Lummi Island. From there to the Point Roberts Buoy there will probably be more wind slightly to the east of the rhumb line. The wind will be light and from the south/southwest with it generally going very light after around 0200hrs. You would really like to be around the Pt Roberts mark before 0200 and then be sure to take your time at the shorten course mark.

One model does have a northerly of 5-8knots filling down the SOG and down San Juan Island just before dawn. That combined with the big ebb of the day could get you to Hein Bank in time to catch the flood to the finish. If you’re a big boat with a tall rig and really wanted to roll the dice, you could try sailing down the inside of San Juan Island and gamble that you could make it out of Cattle Pass before about 0900 Saturday morning and the start of the big flood of the day. The big boats could finish by mid-afternoon Saturday.

For the once this summer, expect the lighter air to be in the SOJ while the central Sound will have a delightful northerly of 10-15 knots on Saturday before it becomes light on Sunday.

This will be a great weekend to be on the water just be sure to have plenty of sunblock and be sure to reapply throughout the day.

Have a great weekend and if you’re on the NC Race please leave your AIS on so I can see how you’re doing. 

Kurt Hoehne

Kurt grew up racing and cruising in the Midwest, and has raced Lasers since the late 1970s. Currently he is a broker at Swiftsure Yachts. He has been Assistant Editor at Sailing Magazine and a short stint as Editor of Northwest Yachting. Through Meadow Point Publishing he handles various marketing duties for smaller local companies. He currently is partners on a C&C 36 which he cruises throughout the Northwest. He’s married to the amazing Abby and is father to Ian and Gabe.