Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 26, 27, 28, 28, and 29 June. SALISH 200!

The Salish 200 Race, which starts tonight at 1900hrs off of Pt. Hudson in Port Townsend(PT), is a very cool concept which we at Sailish think we will see more of as racing slowly comes back online. The course is pretty simple; start in PT go around the San Juan Islands(SJI) using the same marks as Round the County, then go around Vashon Island and finish back at PT.  You can start by going around the SJI first or by going around Vashon first and you can go either direction around the marks. This will be a navigators race and considering that the crew limit is five, the larger boats are going to be very busy.

Of course, the tides will be an issue as they always are when you race in this part of the world and since tides are known, we’ll cover those first.

Admiralty Inlet

1830       3.0 knts   Max fld

2300       Slack

27 June

0206       1.83        Max ebb

0506       Slack

0724       1.41        Max fld

1030       Slack

1336       1.8          Max ebb

1612       Slack

1924       2.81        Max fld

2348       Slack

West Point

2130    Slack

2312    .42       Max Ebb

27 June

0154    Slack

0706    .56       Max Fld

1018    Slack

1136    .16       Max Ebb

1254    Slack

1430    .16       Max fld

1930    .75       Fld

2230    Slack

Rosario Strait

2018    2.65     Max fld

27 June

0024    Slack

0406    1.57     Max ebb

0854    .3         ebb

1424    1.96     Max ebb

1742    Slack

Turn Point

27 June

0030    Slack

0206    .94       Max ebb

0436    Slack

0742    1.38     Max Fld

1042    Slack

1400    2.26     Max ebb

1701    Slack

2106    3.21     Max Fld

Now for the weather, it will be a tale of four regions, the Straits of JdF, the SJI, Admiralty Inlet (AI), and Puget Sound. As we know from racing around here, these are very much micro-regions and each can have very different weather which will be the case this weekend.

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The Surface Charts show the reason for this. We are finally starting to get the Pacific High into a more normal position and nearly a normal pressure. This has contributed to the high becoming more rounded and as a result more stable. We’ve also had some very warm temperatures on the other side of the mountains which is supporting a thermal trough over the area. Higher pressure offshore, lower pressure inshore=onshore flow. Yes, in the charts and the Sat Pic you’ll see a cold front approaching with Langley radar just starting to pick up the leading edge of this very weak front. The Sat Pic shows there is not much to this and as it hits the coastal buffer zone it will rapidly deteriorate. There may be some scattered showers around however this won’t amount to much. By tomorrow morning it will be long gone and the offshore high will continue to build in pressure and become more stable.

Remember the old Puget Sound Rule of Thumb, the first day that the ridge of high pressure starts to build will be the best day for wind over the Sound. Such will be the case today. When we sent up the Sailish.com weather spy drone at 0600hrs this morning we had a relatively uniform northerly (8-12knts) over the area from Pt No Point to Pt Robinson. As of noon, it has dropped off, especially the area south of Alki, while at Race Rocks we had 36-knots of westerly, it has now eased to 30-knots however we can expect Gale warnings in the Central and Eastern Straits this afternoon and into the evening with 30-35-knots with higher gusts. The gradient difference from Forks to Bellingham is already at 2.1mb so the breeze will happen. This will fill down the Sound to at least the Narrows with 10-18 knots of NNW. While the wind will continue in the Straits overnight, after the sun goes down it will drop in the Sound.

Saturday, while the wind may have slightly eased in the Straits overnight, once the land starts to heat the westerly will once again build in the Straits. Unfortunately, the wind will stay light over most of the Sound until very late Saturday afternoon when it finally gets above five-knots for at least a couple of hours before it dies off again after sunset. 

By early Sunday morning, the wind in the Straits will start to ease and will continue to do so over the day as the pressure gradient weakens in the Straits. The Central Sound will have wide swaths of calm and very light air because some of the onshore flow will finally make it through the Chehalis Gap and start flowing up the Sound. This will keep the wind light and variable for most Sunday. By about midday Sunday, a light northerly should develop in Admiralty Inlet as the land once again begins to heat up.

As you can probably tell from the above description, the weather will be challenging for this weekend. Tonight will be no joke in the Straits so rig for heavy weather, get the jack lines set up, and everyone in lifejackets with safety harnesses. It will be nasty enough and with the flood tide, some boats may be tempted to go down the Sound first and try to get around Vashon tonight. This would make for a long race.

Those who go north first will find the Straits rough but once you get into the shelter of the Islands it will back right off with some boats making it to Patos by midnight. With any kind of luck, and that’s because the models don’t agree, the bigger boats will be back to PT by between 0600 and 1000 hrs Saturday morning after a nice close to beam reach becoming a run in 8-15 knots of WNW. This is when things will slow and right now it looks like even the big boats will have a tough time finishing within the time limit.

The good news is that if you’re a Seattle boat go north first, take your time at Pt. Hudson on the way south, and then when you realize you’re not going to make the time limit, it’s a short hop back to the dock. At least you can finish one race.

This is going to be a great race at least for a while. Enjoy and please keep the AIS on so I can see what’s going on out there.

Stay safe, and have a great time.