How appropriate is it that tomorrow, the first day of fall or the autumnal equinox, will have somewhat wet and blustery conditions. I don’t know about you but my garden could certainly use some rain.
The surface analysis chart and the current satellite image shows what is happening now with a front off the coast making its approach and pushing a weak group of high-pressure systems out of the Northwest. This will result in pre-frontal conditions over the Salish Sea today meaning 15-20 knots of southeasterly over the central Sound and lighter conditions in the Straits. Frontal passage should occur late this afternoon or early evening. The post frontal conditions will bring a strong onshore flow developing early Saturday. This will result in strong southerly breeze (15-25 knots) over the inland waters in the morning hours on Saturday which will ease after about mid-day. Conditions in the Straits will remain light until the onshore flow develops down the Straits which should occur near dawn on Saturday and hold through the day. This will bring 15-25 knots of westerly down the Straits and this will create a classic Puget Sound convergence zone to develop from Everett north about mid-day on Saturday.
Click any image to enlarge.
This scenario may create some consternation for the NW Harvest Race as the breeze will start from the south at 12-15, clock to the southwest at 10-12, shift to the northeast at 5-10, then back to the north at 5-8 by late afternoon. This will keep skippers and tacticians very busy and this would be a good time for skippers to remember to not get too frustrated by watching windex. The tactician should be watching the windex because that will tell you about the next shift, the skipper or driver should be watching the lower telltales on the sails and steering to those because that is where you have the greatest amount of sail area. Drivers drive and tacticians do tactics.
It’s a great event for a great cause and is always a ton of fun especially the post race party and auction. Have fun, stay warm, and try to stay dry.
Oh yeah, after the post frontal on Saturday, the gradient will ease bringing light air to the region for Sunday. You can also see by the surface chart for Tuesday that the next front will be slightly stronger. It’s time to start thinking about the winter configuration of your mooring lines, chafe gear, and maybe getting that headsail off the furler and into sailmaker for some fall touch ups. No freezing weather on the horizon but you may want to think about that as well.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)