Bruce’s Brief’s for Aug 18 – 21 and the Northern Century Race

It’s getting to my favorite time of the year where the global weather picture starts getting really active especially in the zones where hurricanes start forming. Luckily, we don’t really have to worry about those up here. Instead, we just want to know what sort of weather we’ll have for the weekend (great) and if there’s going to be any rain (no). Then for the sailors who are racing starting tonight out of Anacortes on the Northern Century Race, they want to know if there will be wind (yes and no) or will a century be the amount of time needed to finish the race? Kidding!

As you can see from the surface charts we will have some nice weather for the weekend and for the eclipse on Monday. Just make sure you wear plenty of sunblock (always) and that you’ve got the right glasses or viewing equipment for you, your phone and your camera. And no, two pairs of sunglasses stacked on top of one another won’t cut it and the eclipse can do permanent damage to your retina and your cameras, so it’s no joke.

For boaters, the usual places will have plenty of wind. The eastern end of the Straits and the southern end of the Strait of Georgia. Gale warnings tonight in the Strait of Juan de Fuca and a Small Craft Advisory for the southern part of the Strait of Georgia from 2100 hours tonight until 1000 hours Saturday morning. Rig your jack lines before you leave the dock and get everyone into foulies and safety gear as the sun goes down. Make sure whoever is navigating knows precisely where you are when the sun goes down so there’s no confusion about the range and bearing to the mark and what the hazards are around you. It’s after you get south of Patos on the reach, beat, reach to Hein Bank that the wind will really begin to drop off and will pretty much stay that way until late Saturday afternoon in the San Juan Islands.

As usual, the tides will play a role in this race, with the strongest being Saturday morning and Saturday afternoon. Remember also that the tides in Cattle Pass at the South end of San Juan Channel are double the velocities shown below.

Rosario Straits:

18 Aug

1930                        .91 Ebb

2254                        Slack

19 Aug

0018                        .55 Flood

0206                        Slack

0712                        2.8 Ebb

1118                        Slack

1400                        1.89 Flood

1800                        Slack

Haro Straits, Turn Point Boundary Pass

19 Aug

0121                        .37 Flood

0348                        Slack

0714                        2.18 Ebb

1102                        Slack

1433                        1.13 Flood

1824                        Slack

 

The general rule of thumb for the Northern Century is the sail the shortest possible course from the start to Pt. Roberts, which means leaving Guemes to port even though you might have the ebb with you out to Rosario Straits. The problem is that you will fight a stronger ebb than if you went closer to Lummi Island.

(Click on any image to enlarge)

By the time you get to Pt Roberts the breeze should be on and you should have an exciting close to beam reach back to the green buoy at the east end of Cabbage Island just north of Saturna. In the past, if you’re feeling lucky, you might try to cut the corner and aim towards San Juan Channel. The problem this year will be that this is where the breeze will die first and if you can’t make it out of Cattle Pass by 0900 hours Saturday morning, you could be anchored for about six hours because you can expect the wind to be light and variable from 0700 Saturday morning until it finally fills back down the Straits around 1500-1600 hours. To stay in the breeze you will probably be better off to sail outside of Stuart Island and go around Turn Point. The other problem is that if you go outside of Stuart the wind in Haro Straits will be light and from the south, southeast until you get south of Andrews Bay on San Juan Island where it finally clocks around to the west-southwest. At least there will be wind and less tide than if you tried to go the inside route.

Running the High-Resolution GRIBS with the polars that I have, I have Rage, Hamachi and LawnDart able to make that gate but just barely. Do you feel lucky?

From Hein Bank to the finish it will be a pretty straight forward run.

All in all, a very challenging race on some of the most beautiful water there is in the world.

Be safe, have a great time.

 

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Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor's of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology "to keep from getting kicked around on the race course." Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)

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